2024 South Korean legislative election (April 10th)

[jaichind]

It seems these dummy PR parties are formed before the election and disbanded after the election with elected MPs going back to the true parent party.  At this stage, they should just get rid of this rule that caps PR seats since everyone has a de facto workaround.

Last I checked RKP is not running any FPTP candidates and will support DPK.  Is that still the case?

[jaichind]

RKP's Cho running against "prosecutorial dictatorship" is interesting.  He clearly has a personal stake. 

Historically if there was a "deep state" in ROK it would be the ROK SPO.  They have their own agenda but often would ally with the Right to go after Center-Left politicians after they leave office.  Of course SPO will go after those people on the Center-Right if it is in their institutional interest to do so.  I would be eager to see how many PR vote  RKP can scoop up which I am sure would include some anti-system anti-establishment vote.

[jaichind]

https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=372408

Voter turnout stands at 59.3% as of 3 p.m.

[jaichind]

ROK exit polls tend to have a high margin of error but it is fun to watch the livestream of the various ROK party leaders react live to the exit polls.

[jaichind]

Looks like PPP will be around what it got in 2020 with perhaps a small loss of seats. DPK bloc mainly gaining at the expense of the smaller parties like JP.

[jaichind]

More detailed exit poll breakdown by each "party"

DPK  172-183 (district)   DAK 12-14 (PR)
PPP  68-80 (district) PFP 17-19 (PR)
RKP 12-14 (PR)

From a PR point of view, the PPP bloc did not do that badly.  RKP PR vote seems to underperformed pre-election polls

[jaichind]

DPK (Left) and PPP (Right) live headquarters reaction to exit polls

[jaichind]

Results page:
https://news.kbs.co.kr/special/election2024/countingStatus.html
https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/
https://www.chosun.com/election2024/vote/

Turnout as of 5 p.m. is 64.1% (+1.5). Polls close at 6 p.m. local time and exit polls will be released immediately.

Google Translate doesn't seem to work with any of these sites. Is there any English-speaking source reporting on the results?

https://imnews.imbc.com/issue/vote2024/vote/

seems to work fairly well with google translate

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       40
DPK      27

Most of these leads are in rural areas outside Greater Seoul where DPK is expected to sweep.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       54
DPK      34

The regional disparities are still very stark.  Jeolla areas are still around 90-10 margins in favor of DPK and in the Gyeongsang area the margins are still around 80-20 in favor of PPP

[jaichind]

If the exit polls are roughly correct then things look pretty good for Lee Jae-Myung in 2027.

It seems every ROK Prez from the Democratic camp has to lose first before coming back to win in the next election.  Kim Dae-Jung had to lose first in 1992 before winning in 1997.  Moon Jae-In had to lose first in 2012 before winning in 2017.  And very likely Lee Jae-Myung will have to lose first in 2022 before winning (likely) in 2027.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       75
DPK      43

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP       88
DPK       54
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[jaichind]

Exit poll by FPTP district.  For sure does not match results so far but most likely that is result of count bias

[jaichind]

Current standing for PR seats
PFP 21
DAK 15
RKP 10

Looks like underperformance by RKP so far

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      111
DPK       68
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[jaichind]

I am looking at Gangwon's results.  Exit polls have this entire area as a tossup but with nearly 14% of the vote in the PPP vote share lead seems pretty solid (~10% or more).  If this is still the case with 30% of the vote counted then there is a chance exit polls might have underestimated PPP

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      126
DPK       71
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      123
DPK       87
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK finally starting to make gains

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      125
DPK       94
Ind          1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK continues gains as more votes come in and start to converge toward exit polls

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      126
DPK        98
NRP          1
Ind            1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK leads about to go into triple digits

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

PPP      128
DPK       104
NRP          1
PP             1
Ind            1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK finally over 100

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      122
PPP       117
PP            2
NRP          1
NFP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK takes the lead

[jaichind]

Gangwon count is over 32%.  PPP is behind in 1 seat but overall has a strong vote share lead.  Exit polls had most of this area as a tossup.  DPK will win of course by a good margin but there is now reason to believe exit polls most likely underestimated PPP somewhat.

[jaichind]

Chosun right now has it in turns of FPTP leads

DPK      136
PPP       109
PP            1
NFP          1
Ind           1 (looks like pro-DPK)

DPK expands lead.  Convergence toward exit polls