Is Nevada really still a swing state?

[Smash255]

No, its borderline lean/likely D, and with Trump its borderline likely/safe D

State Party is fairly strong, but on the Presidential level it really can't be considered a swing state.

[Nyvin]

The demographics of Nevada make it not a swing state.

The Nevada Democratic Party is probably one of the more inept state parties though.    They depend way too much either the Presidential or Harry Reid's campaigns to assist them down ballot.

[StatesPoll]

Public Policy Polling    July 13–14, 2015
http://b.3cdn.net/maj2012/16a0ab98f6fa650c7c_iym6bn8u9.pdf

Hillary 48% | TRUMP 42%

Considering that time Hillary was so strong, and TRUMP wasn't that popular at that time.
It is a swing state.

1. Racial Demographics
1) Plus, Black Voter share is kinda low. 9% (well for Hillary Hooligans, still better than Colorado: 3%)
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/NV/president/
(CNN Exit Poll 2012)

2) Hispanic voter share would be around 20% in 2016( it was 19% in 2012)
if it gonna be Hillary 57% TRUMP 27% Johnson 10% Stein 6%
Hillary's edge of Hispanics, just 6%=(60-30)x20

2. Party Affiliation change. now much better for GOP than 2012.
1) CNN Exit Poll, 2012 : DEM 38% GOP 28% Ind 34% : +10% spreads DEM

2) 2016 : Democrats 40.5% | Republican 33.6% (May,2016) : +6.9% spreads DEM
https://www.nvsos.gov/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=4297

3. Even Weak Candidate like Romney beat Obama of Independent. 50-45 (2012)
Now Nevada: about 25% Independent voters.
I'm sure TRUMP would do better than Romney.

4. Jill Stein
She might get at least 2%ish in here by White liberals + etc.

So, I guess NV is quite playable state for TRUMP.
 

[Holmes]

Honestly, no, Nevada during Presidential election turnout is bordering on safe Democratic. With midterm turnout, though, it's really competitive, even lean Republican, which is really something the state Democratic party (which sucks) needs to work on - getting out its voters.

Well, I was convinced back in 2012 (a presidential year after all) that Shelley Berkley is going to win because of a turnout as well as polls understating the support for a Democratic candidates (Reid's 2010 margin of victory was higher than what most polls predicted).

I actually thought she would win too thanks to Obama's coattails, but I wasn't surprised when she lost. She wasn't a great candidate. She lost by what, 1%? Ross Miller would've won.

[Hammy]

My personal opinion based on demographics is that this year it is not, at least at the presidential level, but I'd also hold off on anything definate until we have polls newer than half a year old to look at.