Is Nevada really still a swing state?

[Angrie]

Most electoral college maps still have Nevada colored in as a swing state. Is this still reasonable?

Sure, Nevada is still winnable for a moderate Hispanic Republican like Sandoval for Governor, especially in a midterm year when minority turnout is low. But is it really winnable for a national Republican (especially Trump) in a presidential year, when minority turnout will be high?

I'm inclined to say no. Why? Because nowhere is demographic change occurring more rapidly than in Nevada. Over the longer term:



And from the census, here is the change over the shorter term:

White Non-Hispanic: 54.1% in 2010 --> 51.5% in 2014
Hispanic: 26.5% in 2010 --> 27.8% in 2014
Black: 8.1% in 2010 --> 9.1% in 2014
Asian: 7.2% in 2010 --> 8.3% in 2014

Just the black population increase alone is politically significant because blacks are such reliable Democratic voters. You might not think of Nevada as a center of black population growth. But there are the numbers. Up 1% in only a span of 4 years! How much will it have gone up over the course of a decade?

If you are not ready to call Nevada a blue state, when will you be ready to stop calling it a swing state? 2020? 2024? Does Dean Heller have to lose for you to consider NV a blue state?

[Tartarus Sauce]

It's likely lean democrat at this point, although the right kind of Republican could potentially make a play there. Suffice to say, Trump is not the right type of Republican, if anything he'll exacerbate its leftward skewing.

[psychprofessor]

Nevada and New Mexico are lean DEM, and I would argue strong DEM against Trump. Arizona is next in line with its shifting demos.

[Vosem]

Eh. It's very clear at this point that Nevada is to the left of the nation as a whole, and that a Republican winning Nevada presidentially has already won. At the same time, it still has a very locally competent Republican party, and the state's turnout is variable enough that a Republican presidential victory, with the right candidates (definitely not Trump), is still totally conceivable. So lean yes, but the argument for no makes sense and it really depends what you mean by 'swing state'.

[Xing]

It's not as solid a Democratic state as New Mexico, but it's hard to imagine someone like Trump winning there. I'd say it's Likely D right now.

[Seriously?]

Most electoral college maps are right. It is a swing state. It's close enough where either party could win.

There may be a lean D, but with enough uniformity of a swing, Nevada can be won by any Republican candidate in any election.

[Clark Kent]

Not for Trump.

[Virginiá]

I don't think it's a swing state, but it's not unwinnable for a Republican yet. The problem is, the demographic changes are happening so rapidly that it's likely to stay Democratic for a long time now. I say this because I cannot see Trump winning that state, and by 2020 demographic changes will have put it even further out of reach for Republicans, perhaps entirely if Trump inspires much greater turnout among Hispanic voters, which will likely stay somewhat higher than they are now. Nevada is one of the 3 main states Soros and his friends are investing big money in regarding Hispanic turnout operations, so that will help.

Also at play here is generational changes (whose voting habits are heavily influenced also by demographic changes). 18-29 voters have been trending significantly Democratic in NV and have largely continued so as they aged:



As you can see, the Millennials in Nevada has trended heavily Democratic cycle after cycle, and as they have aged, they have carried their pro-Democratic voting habits into the next age bracket. At this rate, by 2024, the entire 18 - 44 age bracket will be a 55% - 60%+ Democratic bloc and 45 - 64 will be 52% - 56% or more, assuming no major changes to voting habits.

The only age group that has been giving Republicans a fighting chance are 65+ year olds, and after a decade or so, that age bracket will no longer be as strongly Republican as it is now, barring any major disruptive events (a large recession for example)

[Ljube]

Not for Trump.

Yes for Trump. Not for other Republicans.

[This account no longer in use.]

Is Angrie really still a troll?

About as on-topic as most of Jfern's posts.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Is Oregon really still a swing state?

It was in 2000, so I don't see why not.

[Mr. Illini]

I would put it on the same level as Wisconsin in 2016 - Lean D, but its gonna go D

[Since I'm the mad scientist proclaimed by myself]

Not for Trump.

Yes for Trump. Not for other Republicans.

Well we know Trump does well in the state of denial.

[Downnice]

Is Oregon really still a swing state?

It was in 2000, so I don't see why not.

You can argue that Oregon is more a swing state than Nevada at this point

Last poll from Nevada

Clinton 48
Trump 42

Last Poll from Oregon
Clinton 42
Trump 44

Nevada is not a swing state anymore, it is the same boat as New Mexico. I am not saying Oregon is a swing state either but Trump is more likely to steal Oregon than steal Nevada at this point

[Seriously?]

Is Oregon really still a swing state?

It was in 2000, so I don't see why not.

You can argue that Oregon is more a swing state than Nevada at this point

Last poll from Nevada

Clinton 48
Trump 42

Last Poll from Oregon
Clinton 42
Trump 44

Nevada is not a swing state anymore, it is the same boat as New Mexico. I am not saying Oregon is a swing state either but Trump is more likely to steal Oregon than steal Nevada at this point

This is all utter nonsense.

Any state that is +/- 5% is put in the tossup category. Nevada remains there, albeit with a slight D lean. It is entirely possible with a uniform 6-7% swing from 2012 for Trump to take that state.

Generic R should do better this cycle because it's an open seat election. Will Trump get there? Perhaps not. But Nevada is "a swing state" within the every definition of the word.

Oregon, whatever. You need way more data points to show me that Oregon should be anything other than lean/likely D than some garbage Clout Research poll.

[publicunofficial]

Is Angrie really still a troll?

About as on-topic as most of Jfern's posts.

Come on, this "LITERALLY SANE, NORMAL" stuff in those poll options is annoying as hell.

I've stopped thinking he's your sock, because his posts are so much better than yours.

[Orser67]

Depends on how narrow your definition of "swing state" is. I think it's probably more of a swing state than North Carolina, for example.

[Holmes]

Honestly, no, Nevada during Presidential election turnout is bordering on safe Democratic. With midterm turnout, though, it's really competitive, even lean Republican, which is really something the state Democratic party (which sucks) needs to work on - getting out its voters.

[LLR]

No but SOUTH CAROLINA is!!

[Xing]

No but SOUTH CAROLINA is!!

I thought it was Safe D...?

[Likely Voter]

Well it will probably remain as a battleground, but will it still be a top tier battleground for the GOP? In 2012 the GOP spent as much money on NV as they did on WI and IA and more than spent on PA, NH and MI.  If there is going to be a focus on the midwest and rust belt this time, then it is likely that other states are going to get less attention and NV is certainly a candidate for less attention, but not sure they are ready to cede it like NM.

[Maxwell]

Honestly, no, Nevada during Presidential election turnout is bordering on safe Democratic. With midterm turnout, though, it's really competitive, even lean Republican, which is really something the state Democratic party (which sucks) needs to work on - getting out its voters.

It says something more about Nevada Democrats when half of Nevada Republicans are literally SHARON ANGLE crazy.

[Joe Republic]

The GOP didn't even really try to win it the last two elections.  The Obama campaign opened about ten (IIRC) campaign offices all the over the state in 2012.  Romney had one.

[Kingpoleon]

Nevada and New Mexico are lean DEM, and I would argue strong DEM against Trump. Arizona is next in line with its shifting demos.

Attention! OC sock found!

That said, I'd argue that Kasich or Rubio or even the antipatico Cruz would have made it Tossup. Right now? No, but OC did say in like 2012 that the Perot supporters would flip it to Trump. So, what do I know?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Honestly, no, Nevada during Presidential election turnout is bordering on safe Democratic. With midterm turnout, though, it's really competitive, even lean Republican, which is really something the state Democratic party (which sucks) needs to work on - getting out its voters.

Well, I was convinced back in 2012 (a presidential year after all) that Shelley Berkley is going to win because of a turnout as well as polls understating the support for a Democratic candidates (Reid's 2010 margin of victory was higher than what most polls predicted).