Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

There will be no invasion

[Aurelius]

Anyway I somewhat doubt that this isn’t just another ruse, but even if it is not I can only see positive things from it decades from now in bettering international politics by making everyone I dislike lose compared to the carnage. And my opponents losing means more opportunity for the common good. 

Ideology is poison.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Sun is hardly a reliable source of information. However, they are hardly the only outlet that is reporting this.

I have a hunch that the invasion occurs soon. Just a matter of when.

Yes, but the confident prediction it would happen at 1AM this morning was clearly incorrect.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I will be very surprised if there is not a war by tomorrow or the next day.

Why do you think so? Only because WH says it's likely? What about their assessments in Afghanistan?


Even if you believe Russia will invade, why today/tomorrow? Why not next week? Why not next month? Incredible.


Here is what Ukraine ruling party said just yesterday (and Ukraine has been saying it since ~ december 2021):

https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/status/1493618605363273744


Note, that they mean Biden administration when they say "some U.S. media outlets". They are smart enough to not openly calling Biden/WH/CIA assessments "blatant fake news".

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/EmbassyofRussia/status/1493884806022713344

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://twitter.com/MuradGazdiev/status/1493862768818151425https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1493501942072496129

The only trolling super power  

[jaichind]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

[Torie]

I have no inside information obviously, and fortunately, the invasion has not happened yet, so I am glad I was not proved seamlessly clairvoyant. I am pessimistic because if it is all a bluff, I don't think Putin is going to get much out of it, and all these troops in place is a  very expensive enterprise to carry on for long periods. And again being no expert and with no inside information, my perception is that Russia could prevail militarily in rather short order. But maybe Putin has now decided that longer term subjugating Ukraine by force is just too risky. Maybe sanctions and other measures the West can and would take would be more devastating to Russia than I had perceived (my perception was to the contrary and would be also very costly to the West). I certainly hope so. I remain pessimistic however, and I suspect that the West will now accelerate measures to become less economically involved with Russia and dependent on its energy. Being willing to use military force to get your way in a context such a this, means that the country is just not one right now that you want in the same house, much less in the same bed. So in that sense, Putin's "antics" have already cost him.

I wonder how much of the current Russian mindset is a function of Putin and the "cult" of his personality, and likely to change when he departs (hopefully his "reign" will not be as long as Queen Elizabeth), and how much is endemic. Russia may no longer be an "evil  empire," but sadly it is saddled with a very evil man. It is sobering to think that for four years the 3 most powerful nations in the world were run by evil autocrats or would be autocrats. Finally, I am not a fan of Biden and find him or magical competence, but on Ukraine he has done well, and seems engaged and knowledgeable and measured, and kudos to him for that.

Addendum: The withdrawal feint appears to be just that, a feint. What is the point of Putin continuing to throw chips onto the table, if it is a but a bluff that is not going to get him any substantive concessions? That is what puts me in the doomer camp pretty much.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/594470-nato-chief-says-it-appears-russia-is-continuing-the-military-buildup

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/olex_scherba/status/1493672265942241280

Just to push back on some more inane Putinist narratives

Just to be clear.  Putin raised the issue of genocide (which I agree is inappropriate) only in response to Scholz's defense of NATO intervention in Kosovo without UN mandate because, as per Scholz, there was genocide in Kosovo.   The word genocide has been so inflated and politized as to lose any real meaning anyway but in this conversation, it was not Putin that started it. 

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

14th-16th have been seen as likely time for an invasion because Putin got forces into position immediately prior, and because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations), and because it's generally viewed as sub-optimal to keep invasion forces in the field (especially in winter) for longer than necessary.

If there is no invasion later today, then either Putin has decided against one (which would be hopeful but seem unlikely) or he/his government have decided they're willing to wait and attack at a less-optimal time.

In the meantime, we've had a legal rationale presented by the Duma's request to Putin re: the Donbass, and now we're seeing the Russian government talking up what looks like preparation for a false flag attack or other provocation:
https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1493909167500931074

[StateBoiler]

Addendum: The withdrawal feint appears to be just that, a feint. What is the point of Putin continuing to throw chips onto the table, if it is a but a bluff that is not going to get him any substantive concessions? That is what puts me in the doomer camp pretty much.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/594470-nato-chief-says-it-appears-russia-is-continuing-the-military-buildup

Either the West/Ukraine are going to concede "X" to Russia that satisifes Putin (and when I say "West/Ukraine", I mostly mean Biden) or Russia will invade. If nothing happens diplomatically and Russia do not invade, this is a humiliating defeat for Putin. So for people that say "an invasion is not going to happen", I presume they're more pro-Russia minded. I wonder if they realize that if nothing is conceded diplomatically and Putin withdraws, it's a clear loss to him, because he was the one that raised the pressure to achieve change saying the status quo was unacceptable, and then no change to that status quo resulted. That is how Khrushchev was removed from power (although actually he was successful in changing the status quo in getting nukes removed from Turkey).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I have no inside information obviously, and fortunately, the invasion has not happened yet, so I am glad I was not proved seamlessly clairvoyant.

I know, you have not, but my question is rather why do you trust assessments from US *that* much, that you're even believe about the date [or that Russia is about to take Kiev's?]?

I am pessimistic because if it is all a bluff, I don't think Putin is going to get much out of it, and all these troops in place is a  very expensive enterprise to carry on for long periods.

I don't know how expensive that is, but Russia has gradually made build up in months now. Why wouldn't Putin afford wait month(s) more? Moreover, the price of oil has gone up by 10-25$ because of that, which means a lot of "extra" $$$ every day to Putin.

And again being no expert and with no inside information, my perception is that Russia could prevail militarily in rather short order. But maybe Putin has now decided that longer term subjugating Ukraine by force is just too risky. Maybe sanctions and other measures the West can and would take would be more devastating to Russia than I had perceived (my perception was to the contrary and would be also very costly to the West). I certainly hope so. I remain pessimistic however, and I suspect that the West will now accelerate measures to become less economically involved with Russia and dependent on its energy. Being willing to use military force to get your way in a context such a this, means that the country is just not one right now that you want in the same house, much less in the same bed. So in that sense, Putin's "antics" have already cost him.

I wonder how much of the current Russian mindset is a function of Putin and the "cult" of his personality, and likely to change when he departs (hopefully his "reign" will not be as long as Queen Elizabeth), and how much is endemic. Russia may no longer be an "evil  empire," but sadly it is saddled with a very evil man. It is sobering to think that for four years the 3 most powerful nations in the world were run by evil autocrats or would be autocrats. Finally, I am not a fan of Biden and find him or magical competence, but on Ukraine he has done well, and seems engaged and knowledgeable and measured, and kudos to him for that.

Addendum: The withdrawal feint appears to be just that, a feint. What is the point of Putin continuing to throw chips onto the table, if it is a but a bluff that is not going to get him any substantive concessions? That is what puts me in the doomer camp pretty much.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/594470-nato-chief-says-it-appears-russia-is-continuing-the-military-buildup

"any substantive concessions" - well, it's somewhat early to tell. Ukraine has already started to float about some concessions, which I reported in this post

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Vague in first place and backtracked later, but diplomats usually don't improvise. Test balloon?

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1493116643572072451
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1493167291369984002

Moreover, EU reportedly press them to fullfil Minsk Agreements.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1493662744779894784
Moreover, the Ukraine's economy is reportedly (per Ukraine itself) gets hit hard by all the speculations. Weakening Ukraine's economy is one of Putin's main goals. _{In fact, it's one of the reasons why US wanted to kill NS2.}

https://twitter.com/MattMcBradley/status/1493841724673871876

Ukrainian officials are grateful for Western aid and assistance, while expressing genuine unease about a Russian invasion. But they’re also barely able to contain their frustration with Washington’s warnings of war.

Many here say they believe that instead of putting Moscow on notice, the warnings are playing directly into its hand — shaking confidence in Ukraine’s leadership and damaging the country’s fragile economy.

“It is not what the West and partners have promised us,” said Daria Kaleniuk, the executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center, a Kyiv-based watchdog group. “They were saying there will be a swift, fast, strong reaction against Russia in case it continues its aggression as is happening now. And it’s Ukraine that is paying the cost.”

The business losses and the cost to Ukrainian taxpayers have been considerably less amusing. Airlines have canceled flights into Ukraine because of fears of an invasion and the U.S. skyrocketing insurance costs. On Sunday, the government created a $590 million fund to guarantee flights over Ukrainian territory, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Fitch ratings agency revised down the country’s outlook to “stable” from “positive” nearly two weeks ago. And at least one international airline, the Netherlands’ KLM, has suspended flights to the country.

“Our economy and financial situation are bearing losses. This is a consequence of information hysteria, which is actively supported by some officials and the media in Western countries,” said Danylo Hetmantsev, chairman of the tax committee in the Ukrainian parliament. “There are virtually no grounds to suggest that there are more threats to the escalation of the conflict in the east today than at any other time in the last eight years.”

But the overwhelming message from the Ukrainian government is a frustration with the relentless vicissitudes of Western warnings. The on-again, off-again panic has led to a kind of “boy-who-cried-wolf” resignation — especially amongst a population that has dealt with Russian aggression for centuries.

“Now [the U.S.] has raised the bar again, but in my opinion, they have raised the bar of this threat to the maximum,” said Pavlo Kukhta, a Ukrainian economist and the former acting minister of economic development, trade and agriculture. “Keeping the whole country in such a state — ‘tomorrow the Russians attack’ — is impossible because people just get used to it.

[StateBoiler]

The Russian invasion date is most likely the same date as the date Saddam will attack with his WMD.

14th-16th have been seen as likely time for an invasion because Putin got forces into position immediately prior, and because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations), and because it's generally viewed as sub-optimal to keep invasion forces in the field (especially in winter) for longer than necessary.

It has? Ultimately the Russians are going to do what they want, but I've not thought he was doing anything until the 21st just to have Chinese support.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations),

[StateBoiler]

because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations),

I'm pretty sure Antifacist Ghost of Ruin the Russians have night vision goggles. If anything if you're the aggressor at night you'd rather it be pitch black so the other side can't see what's coming at them and from where.

[jaichind]

because of the full moon (light from which is often seen as beneficial for night operations),

Reminds me of India PM Modi in the 2019 India LS election campaign claimed that in a recent retaliatory  airstrike against Pakistan  the Indin airforce avoided radar detection due to clouds.

PM Narendra Modi, in an interview, said that he had suggested that clouds and rain could prevent Pakistani radars from detecting Indian fighter jets during the Balakot air strike.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/controversy-over-pm-narendra-modis-cloud-can-help-us-escape-radar-comment-on-balakot-air-strikes-2036402

Of course none of this nonsense stopped Modi from winning that election by a landslide

[jaichind]

I don't know how expensive that is, but Russia has gradually made build up in months now. Why wouldn't Putin afford wait month(s) more? Moreover, the price of oil has gone up by 10-25$ because of that, which means a lot of "extra" $$$ every day to Putin.

Yeah.  I am not sure what is behind all this war talk from the USA but so far the impact has been

a) Not helping on the inflation front in USA and Western Europe as energy prices surge
b) Clearly an economic boom to OPEC and Russia as energy prices surge
c) Creating clearly economic problems in Ukraine which clearly increases Putin leverage over Ukraine

[Torie]

VRB, My thinking the date might well have something to it, is that events and the reporting of them, seemed to fit so well, including even the false story that Biden was going to delay his talk into 30 minutes after the time of the invasion, and because of my perception surmise that Russia can' engage in this show of flexing its muscles, with so many boots on the ground, and ships deployed, the whole show, for that long - it's either fish or cut bait. Some of the reporting of the timing and so forth may have been Russian disinformation for all I know. I've read that Biden has a good spy network now to get good intelligence on what is going on in Russia, and his strategy was to broadcast to the world what was going on, blow by blow, like a sports announcer of plays, so Russia thought, well Biden broadcast this please  - the bombs will start dropping in 30 minutes.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1493953772883783684?s=20&t=kJ632h1U2IB...

[jaichind]

As for the invasion date predictions is clear as day where the USA prediction logic is coming from.  It is the coming of rasputitsa.  Anyone that looked at the post-Stalingrad early 1943 campaign in Eastern Ukraine makes it clear what is going on. There were intense battles between German and USSR forces with Kharkiv changing hands twice but all operations pretty much stopped mid-March after German forces captured Kharkiv but could not advance into the Kursk salient due to the melting snow halting all armed formations on both sides.  The clash for Kursk will have to wait until the Summer of 1943.  It is clear the USA logic is to start with Russia has to be done by mid-March including cleanup so they HAVE to start in mid-Feb.  

None of this has to do with intention but with capabilities due to weather conditions.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

[StateBoiler]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

I think the word originally was "ready to invade by the 16th".

Decision-makers should know if they give a date then Putin probably won't invade on that date even if he was planning. It's in his interest to not have U.S. intelligence be right, and you want the element of surprise against your adversary anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So, ground troops didn't actually invade.
Very minor egg on face for the US intelligence apparatus?

I think the word originally was "ready to invade by the 16th".

Decision-makers should know if they give a date then Putin probably won't invade on that date even if he was planning. It's in his interest to not have U.S. intelligence be right, and you want the element of surprise against your adversary anyway.

As it is, Putin may or may not have planned to invade on that date, but he could do things that he was planning to do slightly later and push them forward instead. That is to say, he'd rearrange the schedule in response to the US showing its hand.
Nonetheless, it's something of a defeat for the US that the naunces of the "ready to invade" vs "invade" could be getting forgotten and Russia could notch a minor win merely by fiddling around with dates.

[KaiserDave]

I think perseverating on the date is not healthy and I don’t think that the intelligence was necessarily insistent on that date or any date. What we do know is there any claims of a purported withdrawal are not true.

[Sir Mohamed]

I think perseverating on the date is not healthy and I don’t think that the intelligence was necessarily insistent on that date or any date. What we do know is there any claims of a purported withdrawal are not true.

Which no one should be surprised of. I mean, it's not the first time Putin and his regime are engaged in promotion of fake news and disinformation campaigns. I dunno what he even tries to accomplish with the claim; he can't believe we're stupid enough to fall for this. Any withdrawl would be verified by satelite images.