States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

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Rated from most likely to least likely in each section

Indiana = definite flip

North Carolina = likely flip
Ohio = likely flip
Virginia = possible flip
Florida = possible flip
New Hampshire = possible flip
Iowa = possible flip

Pennsylvania = unlikely flip

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Yes, Ohio is more culturally conservative as a whole ("the bluest of the red states") than Pennsylvania ("the reddest of the blue states").  

In addition, at least at the moment, I'm looking at this map:

http://ohiolmi.com/laus/ColorRateMap.pdf

If you'll notice, Lucas County has over 9% unemployment, Cuyahoga over 8%, Ashtabula over 10%, Trumbbull over 9%, Summit over 8%, Stark over 9% and Mahoning over 9%.  Obama did really well in all of these counties in 2008, allowing him to win the state.  But, with depressed unemployment numbers like that, votes that allowed him to take the state in '08 could very well just not be there in 2012.  Democratic presidential candidates who win Ohio really need to rack up big numbers in these counties, making something that looks like a backwards "C" shape on the northeastern and eastern edge of the state (as Jay Cost called in in 2008), in order to win it.  I have grave doubts at the moment, given the unemployment numbers in that region, whether Obama can color that region deeply "D" enough to win Ohio again.  Note that Hamilton is also over 8% and Franklin over 9%.  Plus, the GOP operations in Ohio are going to be funded full-tilt next year.  

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Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?

Hard to say, depends on the candidate.  Clinton, Gore and Kerry had much more play in Western PA than they did in the burbs west of Philly.  Obama had better results in the burbs west of Philly than he did in western PA outside of Allegheny.  What happens if the GOP cracks 20% in Philly and wins Chester but loses Bucks?