States most likely to flip to the Republicans?

[sg0508]

Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania

Pretty good guesses, although I doubt your native PA switches back.  I actually forgot that McCain did very well in western PA, yet still lost by 10 pts.  Unless the GOP nominee can break 25% in Philly, forget about it.

[sg0508]

The interesting thing that I noticed about IN is that Coats won his Senate seat by a much, much smaller margin than many had predicted.  Some were predicting around a 20 pt win and yet he won just 53%, which is unusually low in IN for a big GOP year in a Republican-leaning state.

[sg0508]

Curious as to why any of you think NH is switching so fast.  This isn't NH of the 1980s anymore and had it not been for Nader in 2000, Gore likely wins it.

[sg0508]

Washington (would be before NJ but for King County shenanigans)

King county shenanigans? I'm a Washington republican and even I don't think voting irregularities in King county are a significant problem. The fact is we lose elections because we have done a lousy job appealing to the Puget Sound region and not because of voting irregularities in King county.

The Slade Gorton tactic of "the rest of the state and screw King County" doesn't work there anymore.  The state has changed

[sg0508]

Pat Tumor = bad example. This isn't 2010.

It not being 2010 doesn't mean his formula for uniting very different types of voters is worthless.

Please understand the topic and point being made before you post. Thanks.

It's probably not a good idea to compare the mid-term strategy though with the general considering that if that race happened in 2012 (with the same political environment), Toomey probably loses as the number of democrats that would have showed up would have exceeded the increase in GOP voters.