States most likely to flip to the Republicans? (user search)
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  States most likely to flip to the Republicans? (search mode)
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Author Topic: States most likely to flip to the Republicans?  (Read 3089 times)
bullmoose88
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« on: July 09, 2011, 01:25:39 PM »

OH is distinctly more GOP than PA, and has been since rocks cooled. And Ohio has more of West Virginia in it (as it were), than PA does (including a lot of mountain Pubbies from Kentucky that live in the Cincinnati area, the one metro area where Jews tend to, or did, vote Pubbie).  And OH does not have large swaths of suburban areas appending a big liberal city trending Dem.  PA has the Philly suburbs. 


Which is funny, since the Philly Burbs used to be one of the big/essential building blocks to a Republican's vote in the commonwealth up until about 1988-1992.

The Republicans have a fair shot of at least capturing a couple of the suburban counties...its not a more likely than not situation...but entirely feasible that the Reps could recapture Chester Co, and possibly Bucks County.  Those two alone are unlikely to give them the commonwealth...unless they're also indicative of a resurgence in the rest of the burbs (and the trend out west has held up).

Bucks is far more republican friendly than either Montco or Delaware county, the latter being one of the traditional "former" homes of Republicanism in PA. 
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #1 on: July 09, 2011, 01:26:37 PM »

Now here's a question...as Pennsylvania goes, building an electoral coalition for the Reps...are SW PA and the philly burbs almost mutually exclusive?
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