Ohio Megathread

[Potus]

Fitzgerald's done. R Hold. Next question.

[Potus]

Just because these two leaks involving the license and the alleged affair are shifting this campaign away from other aspects of it, I'll still cover you guys on all the advantages Fitzy still has and why we still have a great chance at winning here.

A total of 3 ads are coming to the airwaves this week in Ohio - 2 for Kasich, 1 for FitzGerald. Kasich's ads can be seen here. One of the Kasich ads from the RGA is the first ad to attack FitzGerald (still no sign of the DGA in this race :/), and the RGA ad mentions nothing of the parking lot incident the RGA was involved in leaking. The other Kasich ad, double the length of FitzGerald's, out of his own campaign is another story about his life and not his job as Governor - it's basically a sob story ad and it doesn't detail his record as Governor, at all.

Now FitzGerald's attack ad is the one I've been waiting for! "Working" will air around the Cleveland and Columbus media markets again as well as broadcasting on cable TV statewide. It hits Kasich hard in just the first 10 seconds for his attacks on the poor and middle class and like his radio ad, it goes right into talk of who FitzGerald is and his strong record as County Executive. For some odd reason though, Ed's approval of the message is missing at the end, but overall, a great ad. I can't wait to see the impact of it on the polls!



The new fundraising reports are released for July which show Kasich still has a 5-to-1 cash advantage with Kasich's $11.4M to FitzGerald's $2.44M. While Kasich has his political machine to spend however much he pleases, this does show that Fitzy actually had more donors than Kasich did and that his grassroots campaign has become very successful. He got only $40K from the ODP, this time, but that's mainly to shift more money and resources to Pillich (who has the best chance of winning a seat). As Sharen Neuhardt once said, if you can't outraise Kasich, then you better be ready to out-grassroots him and FitzGerald's done just that.

Down-ballot, every Democratic candidate except Nina Turner outraised the Republican incumbents, but all of the GOP officeholders hold a cash advantage still. Mandel has $3.4M CoH to Pillich's $2M in Treasurer, Husted has $3.1M CoH to Turner's roughly $750K, Yost has $1.3M to Carney's nearly $1M, and not that it matters, but Pepper has $1.8M against very safe incumbent DeWine who has $3M.



That so called "Ohio comeback" has again proven to be false according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It's a fact that Kasich has created plenty of jobs under his administration, but we trail the nation in private-sector job growth by 1.3% in Kasich's first term and missed out on 65,000 jobs in Ohio. Not only that, but under Kasich, we're still not below pre-recession levels and our manufacturing jobs industry is not recovering fast enough. With people leaving the work force in big numbers as well, I love how Kasich also claims we're in an "Era of Good Feelings." Not even Republicans in Southeast Ohio want anything to do with him b/c of the job crisis.

With all those "advantages" and "hard hitting ads", it's a wonder that no pollster has had Fitzgerald leading or tied with Kasich. I mean, how could voters still support Kasich so just tells "sob stories" while he has created "plenty of jobs?" They should definitely get to know Fitzgerald soon since every Ohio news outlet is covering the fact that he was just "punching in coordinates" in the backseat of a car with a hot Irish lady after a late night at a bar.

And who cares that a grown man, father, and unfaithful husband can't legally drive? It's not like that's going to create another barrier for Fitzgerald to connect with average voters. And the fact that Fitzgerald broke the law for five years is just a distraction! I just wonder why the DGA isn't hopping on the Fitzmentum.

[Potus]

Ed Fitzgerald had one job. He has a decent record at the county level. A family that looks good on mail. A face that cameras can take a picture of. And he was theoretically the biggest square ever. He had the one job of being Generic D.

He has been running on "stop being mean to the poors" and "muh gays" for the entire campaign. He's been hitting the Governor on the issue of right to work and his support for the unborn since the campaign started. He has not been winning with that message. This supposed miracle ad you're relying on to put his affair to rest is that same message.

This significantly damaged Fitzgerald's fundamentals. He's lost what made him shiny. His mistress pretty much did him in. Even if they are just friends, there is a lot of suspicion that the media is playing up and the donors are about to run for the hills. If you think 5-to-1 is bad, wait til your fundraising dries up.

Earlier in the thread, you were talking about Southeast Ohio supposedly souring on the Governor. I think that was a fallacious opinion to have. Now, there is no question that is not a valid region for Firzgerald to pursue. Those were the folks that turned out en masse for Bush. They're integrity voters and values voters. The affair ended any chance that Fitzgerald had in Southeast Ohio.

[Potus]

Earlier in the thread, you were talking about Southeast Ohio supposedly souring on the Governor. I think that was a fallacious opinion to have. Now, there is no question that is not a valid region for Firzgerald to pursue. Those were the folks that turned out en masse for Bush. They're integrity voters and values voters.

This is not an actual thing. Mark Sanford is an elected member of Congress.

It's different when they have to cross party lines. They were default Kasich voters who were considering voting Democrat. Now, the Democrat ran them back across the party line.

[Potus]

Didn't you just belittle Kasich's campaign ad as "sob story?"

[Potus]

Now this is politics.

[Potus]

Adam, you are displaying your fundamental misunderstanding of politics.