Ohio Megathread

[LeBron]

I'm so glad the Libertarian is taking so much of the vote. Of course, one of the main reasons McAuliffe even won was because of anti-Cuccinelli and a lot of the vote going for Sarvis, and it seems history could repeat itself next year. That's with the hope that the Libertarians successfully sue the state for the new law that is attempting to take them and Green's off the ballot if they don't get 28,000 signatures before the May 6th primary and at least 2% of the vote in the general election. The best hope is this backfires against Kasich and Libertarians manage to get on the ballot which would take votes away from him, but the Green's would fail to get on the ballot increasing FitzGerald's chances there.

Hopefully, these bad numbers for the Ohio GOP also means Husted is in big trouble as well. I was fearing Kasich's Medicaid expansion would soar him up in the polls again, but it really didn't effect anything overall to Kasich's disappointment. FitzGerald, Pillich, and Turner really need to pull out this win for Ohio next year because we can't continue to be losing jobs and having these insane tax breaks as we are.

[LeBron]

I'm so glad the Libertarian is taking so much of the vote. Of course, one of the main reasons McAuliffe even won was because of anti-Cuccinelli and a lot of the vote going for Sarvis, and it seems history could repeat itself next year. That's with the hope that the Libertarians successfully sue the state for the new law that is attempting to take them and Green's off the ballot if they don't get 28,000 signatures before the May 6th primary and at least 2% of the vote in the general election. The best hope is this backfires against Kasich and Libertarians manage to get on the ballot which would take votes away from him, but the Green's would fail to get on the ballot increasing FitzGerald's chances there.

No, the best hope is that all third parties are treated fairly and not janked by overly restrictive political-gain laws.

I don't hate the Green Party, but they do take votes away from most Democratic voters. It's in the best interest of the state for leftists to rely on the Ohio Democratic Party because Green's won't be able to win any statewide offices. Libertarians can because their party is more developed and the Ohio GOP is much more insane than the Ohio Democrats.

Plus, in a way it would almost be considered payback for Kasich trying to rig the election for himself. If Green's aren't on the ballot and Libertarians are, +FitzGerald, -Kasich. Without Charlie Earl, most of that 6% would go to Kasich which could ultimately decide this close election and you can't get closer than a tied race.

[LeBron]

I'm so glad the Libertarian is taking so much of the vote. Of course, one of the main reasons McAuliffe even won was because of anti-Cuccinelli and a lot of the vote going for Sarvis, and it seems history could repeat itself next year. That's with the hope that the Libertarians successfully sue the state for the new law that is attempting to take them and Green's off the ballot if they don't get 28,000 signatures before the May 6th primary and at least 2% of the vote in the general election. The best hope is this backfires against Kasich and Libertarians manage to get on the ballot which would take votes away from him, but the Green's would fail to get on the ballot increasing FitzGerald's chances there.

No, the best hope is that all third parties are treated fairly and not janked by overly restrictive political-gain laws.

I don't hate the Green Party, but they do take votes away from most Democratic voters. It's in the best interest of the state for leftists to rely on the Ohio Democratic Party because Green's won't be able to win any statewide offices. Libertarians can because their party is more developed and the Ohio GOP is much more insane than the Ohio Democrats.

Plus, in a way it would almost be considered payback for Kasich trying to rig the election for himself. If Green's aren't on the ballot and Libertarians are, +FitzGerald, -Kasich. Without Charlie Earl, most of that 6% would go to Kasich which could ultimately decide this close election and you can't get closer than a tied race.

6% my arse. He'll plummet near the end like most third party candidates. He'll be lucky to get 2% and may not hit even 1%.

Well, he's certainly a much more known and credible Libertarian candidate than 2010's was. Nobody had any idea who Ken Matesz was and the fact that the year favored the GOP didn't help the L's much at all either. Charlie Earl is recognized as a former member of the Ohio House of Reps. and despite the Tea Party support he's getting, is still considered a "2nd option" to a much more socially liberal version of Kasich. Besides, he needs to campaign harder than Kasich or FitzGerald because if he doesn't carry at least 2% of the vote in the general election (assuming he will be able to get on the ballot), then the Libertarian Party is done for.

[LeBron]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

[LeBron]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

I have the utmost dislike for Nina Turner. She's just a media-whore, but without the charm of someone like Chuck Schumer. She just says controversial thing on national television just to say them.

She does it to gain support and increase voter knowledge of the issues and more importantly her and what she stands for. Plus Ed Schultz loves having her on and it's really a great way nationwide to spread the message about what's happening here in Ohio. She's also the Minority Whip in the Ohio Senate so that coincides with FitzGerald's pick of the Minority Leader. Just like in Kansas, only the top statewide Democrats can really help him in this.

Keep in mind to, she's running for her political career to just like FitzGerald is. Both Kearney and Turner are up for re-election next year also in the State Senate and won't be able to run for re-election. So this race is everything for her and she only trails Jon Husted, the incumbent Republican Secretary of State, by 1 point 37-36. So all of these races, with the exception of Attorney General, are winnable.

[LeBron]

^^Awesome news on top of Chuck Todd calling John Kasich today on his show one of the top 5 most vulnerable GOP incumbent Governor's up in 2014.

For those who don't know, Kearny also owns a very minority-friendly firm, is great with financing and fundraising, is a good friend of the Obama Family, and has been known to go across the aisle in the Ohio Senate and work with the Republicans.

Perhaps the most important part of this though is balancing the ticket very well which I definitely have to hand to FitzGerald. With the help of fellow State Sen. Nina Turner, the African Americans will come out big for them especially after Kasich's controversial statement awhile back after instituting an all-white Cabinet that he didn't need "you people." Then of course, there's the local aspect part of it because FitzGerald is not well-known outside of Cuyahoga County and this Lt. Governor pick could help bring out a lot of vote from Cuyahoga & Hamilton which may even result in FitzGerald carrying Hamilton County.

Kasich is also starting to lose the state tons of jobs especially in the southeast down where Strickland won primarily and something widely unpopular arising is whether or not Kasich will sign onto right-to-work laws, a 6 week abortion ban, or several voting restrictions. Pick any one of those three that get signed into law. Just one, and you got a FitzGerald advantage.

Please. close to 90% of voters won't recall what the LG candidate's names are on election day given the utter do-nothing nature of the post. This'll help with his fundraising connections, but in terms of turnout it'll do little outside Keaney's senate district.

Even if Ohio Republicans were to make that case, FitzGerald still has Cincinnati backups. He's got David Pepper, the former 2010 Ohio Auditor nominee and Hamilton County Commissioner running for the Attorney General's seat. You guys could easily back this up as well that little know who Pepper is and DeWine will decimate him, but for one thing, DeWine hasn't even announced if he's running or not plus we have ANOTHER backup to from Cincinnati who's probably the best. Obviously, State Rep. Connie Pillich who's doing the best in the polls now against Republican State Treasurer Josh Mandel 47-43. Then we also have State Rep. John Patrick Carney from Columbus running for State Auditor so that major city is covered and of course, we have FitzGerald and Turner from the Cleveland area.

Another thing to note, FitzGerald did something interesting that may have been hard to do given the quality candidates he's running with. He's of course a white male Roman Catholic, Eric Kearney who's an African American male, Connie Pillich who's' a white female, and Nina Turner who's an African American female. If that doesn't bring out the minority and women vote, I don't know what will.

And while the LG does essentially do nothing, you never know who can get lucky with that position. Just a decade ago, after George Voinovich never finished out his second term as Governor to become Senator, his Lt. Governor, Nancy Hollister, became Governor for about two weeks. Even Mary Taylor, whether Kasich falls or not, she'll probably be considered a top potential candidate for the Republican nomination in 2018. So the position isn't just for paparazzi.

[LeBron]

That leaves Representatives Joyce Beatty (D) and Tim Ryan (D) then who have yet to officially endorse FitzGerald which isn't surprising since those are the only two House Democrats in Ohio not within Cuyahoga County.

At this point though, FitzGerald doesn't really even need to worry about more large endorsements from the north because he's already over the top fine in this area, but he really needs to get some ads out and running across the state because sooner or later Kasich will start his attacks on his Democratic opponent. It all depends who comes first.

[LeBron]

With Fitzgerald's name recognition low at the moment, the key is for Kasich to define Fitzgerald, and define him quick. Kasich I think is favored thus far, but if he fails in that department, Fitzgerald could very well beat him.

Saying obvious things.

Sadly, Fitzgerald doesn't stand much of a chance.  We could pick up Treasurer and Auditor, but that's it as far as statewide offices go.

With a different candidate I think you guys would have a chance at Secretary of State too, though not with Nina Turner running. I also doubt Carney can be elected Auditor after his "haphazard" comments. Of course there is still Josh Mandel...

Don't forget though, anything can happen in the next 11 months. About 6 months before the 2010 election, Strickland had a 55% approval, but by election time it was down in the 30s. Part of the reason was a very high, but decreasing unemployment rate throughout that year. Kasich himself can often be related  to this situation because our unemployment is 7.5% (only 2% less than the unemployment rate at Strickland's loss) and some polls are saying he's doing well with a 52% approval while others are saying he's really low in the water at 37%.

Now that doesn't mean it will be an easy task to defeat Kasich. FitzGerald not only needs to raise money to get his name known everywhere, but will have to raise money on statewide attack ads like this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wR_XOjT35Dg

^^If he got that on our TVs, this would be a race. Now in terms of who's likely to fall to who's not:

1) Treasurer Josh Mandel - Tossup
2 & 3) Governor John Kasich/Lt. Governor Mary Taylor - Tossup (I'm taking the PPP poll into account)
4) Secretary of State Jon A. Husted - Lean R
5) State Auditor Dave Yost - Likely R
6) Attorney General Mike DeWine  - Safe R (If he runs)

[LeBron]

I'd say it's:

Treasurer - Lean D
Governor/Lt. Gov. - Lean R
Auditor - Likely R
Secretary of State - Likely R
Attorney General - Safe R

Incidentally, I think the Treasurer race hinges on how close the Gubernatorial race is. If FitzGerald wins or Kasich wins by fewer than 4 points, I think Mandel loses to Pillich, but I think if Kasich wins by more than 4 Mandel will hang on.

Husted and Yost are safe unless there's a Democratic wave or a scandal, while I think DeWine would survive a wave and only loses if he's caught in a scandal.

I'd argue that Carney is a pretty strong candidate while Yost is a rather weak incumbent. 

That seat is pretty inelastic though. Even in 2006 during the Democratic wave of Ohio executive state offices, State Auditor was the only race we didn't win. I wouldn't imagine many Ohioans care much about this seat either given it's a down ballot race and a position that really doesn't do much just like Lt. Governor.

And I'll definitely agree on AG. Pepper stands practically zero chance of defeating DeWine and it's simply because not only is Pepper a weak candidate, but DeWine is well-known, popular, and distances himself away from the Kasich Administration.

But Secretary of State while it favors Husted, is not a safe seat. The last polling done on this seat had Husted only up one point, so highly depending on how Kasich Administration does in the next year in regards to the economy and with these voting reforms, a lot could be blamed on Husted and Turner can win if Ohio's shift in the race at least tilts Democratic in the next year.

I'll also agree on Mandel's race perhaps favoring Pillich considering she's four and people still hate Mandel from last year, but if the Democrat is favored in the Treasurer race, I would call the Governor race favoring nobody because Kasich is close to, but not as toxic as Mandel.

[LeBron]

Kearney is stepping down.

I guess its good for Fitz long term, but the PR for now is awful.

yeah this kind of reminds me of the Eagleton Affair, just plain embarrassing.

Rule Number One of picking a running mate: Do No Harm.

Fitz flopped fabulously.

He can still recover from it because it was early on and this gives FitzGerald to get the bad media attention off of his running mate and back on Kasich's poorly run Administration.

The good thing for Fitz though is Ohio isn't Wisconsin and there are still fields of possible great Democratic running mates for him. For Cincinnati, Rep. Alicia Reece could be a good recruit because it will guarantee the female vote comes out along with ensuring still there's the African American vote and the Hamilton County vote. His best pick in my opinion would be Ohio House Minority Leader Tracy Maxwell Heard. She has name recognition, can help down south still in Columbus, and has great fundraising ability like Kearney did.

State Sen. Capri Caffaro, State Sen. Edna Brown, former Rep. Betty Sutton, or Rep. Joyce Beatty (although she most likely won't), would be other pretty good running mates for him. If he just uses the same strategy he used to get Kearney, then aside from the tax debacle, he's back in the game.

[LeBron]

Ted Stevenot of the Ohio Tea Party Files Paperwork to Run Against Kasich in the GOP Primary

This is great news! He stands little chance of beating Kasich, but given that Kasich expanded Medicaid which is very unpopular among conservatives, it will force Kasich to put a lot of money into the primary.

[LeBron]

Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald's commission's decision to consolidate Police Dispatcher's in Cuyahoga County has been approved, and thus my father along with many others we know are being laid off.

I hope he loses.

Not like it matters. Police and firefighters almost always vote Republican even despite Kasich's cuts to public safety in the budget which also resulted in lay-offs.

And at least Ed actually cares about them unlike Kasich. He used to work for the FBI while Kasich's "devotion" to public safety workers was once calling one of them an "idiot" for pulling him over. Real classy by our Governor.

[LeBron]

Hamilton County Commissioner, Todd Portune, considering a Democratic primary run against FitzGerald

No offense, but he really needs to just stay out of it. The main reason he gave for a possible run is for all reasons because Kearney, a friend of Portune's, dropped off the FitzGerald ticket whom Portune may consider as his LG running mate.

But really, he's only going to hurt Ohio Democrats in the long run. He entered this race way too late into it since FitzGerald's been in it for over a half a year and has the backing of the state Democratic Party, Sherrod Brown, Marcy Kaptur, Marcia Fudge, and a variety of labor unions. This is baring in mind to that a primary challenger for FitzGerald could hurt him in how much money he would have to spend which would counterpart Kasich's recent primary challenger. Neither Stevenot or Portune has declared a run yet, but Stevenot will most likely be in while Portune plans to announce his decision within the next 2 weeks.

I'm obviously 100% pledging my support for Ed FitzGerald. Not only because I'm from Cuyahoga County and Lakewood, OH where he used to be a phenomenal Mayor, but he's actually a true liberal. Portune on the other hand is fiscally conservative and honestly, we don't need another moderate Democrat up in Columbus because we just had one as recent as Strickland.

And the thing is, Portune is from southwestern Ohio and if he picked fellow Hamilton County Democrat, Eric Kearney, as his running mate, he would suffer the same name recognition problem FitzGerald has and would struggle up north like Strickland did. FitzGerald on the other hand has been campaigning hard these last few months and not only does he have the Cincinnati vote covered from Connie Pillich and David Pepper being on his ticket, but he's starting to improve his numbers in southeastern Ohio and will start to do so in other parts of the state very soon.

Portune shouldn't be trying to screw this up for us. This is a winnable race for Democrats.

[LeBron]

"Ho Ho Ho! Merry Corporations!" - Santa Kasich

Since we're only a day until Christmas, Ed FitzGerald decided to pay tribute to the season the best way possible: Going after Kasich for continuing to attack the poor, the 428,000 unemployed and 40,000 unemployed who receive federal benefits that Kasich is refusing to fight for. I don't think it's any coincidence that Kasich has a similar spelled last name to the Grinch.

[LeBron]

Todd Portune to Announce whether or not he'll Screw Ohio Democrats over on Monday at 4 PM

If he wants to work for the best interests of the state party and not his own, selfish self-interests, then he should opt out of a run. He's not the kind of Democrat that liberals in Ohio want and he'll make Ed FitzGerald spend vital money that could be used against Kasich. Portune doesn't even have a legit argument for running either except "Kearney this" and "Kearney that." My God, Portune just save yourself the embarrassment and DON'T run.

[LeBron]

-_____-

Portune will regret this. Not only will he not get by FitzGerald, but Kasich's already large financial advantage will put him even closer to re-election. He's going after FitzGerald for a mistake that Kearney himself made. Sorry, but if Portune would rather have another term of John Kasich rather than get FitzGerald in there, then he's not a real Democrat.

[LeBron]

-_____-

Portune will regret this. Not only will he not get by FitzGerald, but Kasich's already large financial advantage will put him even closer to re-election. He's going after FitzGerald for a mistake that Kearney himself made. Sorry, but if Portune would rather have another term of John Kasich rather than get FitzGerald in there, then he's not a real Democrat.

My impression is that Portune is probably running because he thinks FitzGerald is toast and he wants to give the Democrats another option than letting Kasich coast to re-election. That's really the only reason people start a campaign this late, well either that or because they're mad at the other candidate about some issue, but that doesn't seem to have happened here.

Kasich v. FitzGerald may actually be a lot closer than Kasich v. Portune. Even for me, if Portune does win the primary, I will just end up voting for the Green candidate, Dennis Spisak, and I could see a lot of other liberals, union members, and environmentalists would want to do the same given Portune's moderate and unappealing nature. FitzGerald on the other hand already got the state party's endorsement as well as other huge ones from Senator Sherrod Brown, former Governor Ted Strickland, Reps Marcy Kaptur and Marcia Fudge, and tons of unions. FitzGerald also has the money advantage against Portune and he's been to all 88 counties. Portune hasn't and has a lot of groundwork to make up in just 4 months.

Besides, Portune suffers from the same problem FitzGerald does, name recognition and money. The fact that Portune is from Hamilton County would make it competitive there against Kasich, but he would just end up losing for the same reason Strickland lost with the North not coming in big for him. FitzGerald won't get by him easily which is unfortunate, but once PPP polls the primary, I think he will have a nice advantage over Portune.

[LeBron]

-_____-

Portune will regret this. Not only will he not get by FitzGerald, but Kasich's already large financial advantage will put him even closer to re-election. He's going after FitzGerald for a mistake that Kearney himself made. Sorry, but if Portune would rather have another term of John Kasich rather than get FitzGerald in there, then he's not a real Democrat.

My impression is that Portune is probably running because he thinks FitzGerald is toast and he wants to give the Democrats another option than letting Kasich coast to re-election. That's really the only reason people start a campaign this late, well either that or because they're mad at the other candidate about some issue, but that doesn't seem to have happened here.

Kasich v. FitzGerald may actually be a lot closer than Kasich v. Portune. Even for me, if Portune does win the primary, I will just end up voting for the Green candidate, Dennis Spisak, and I could see a lot of other liberals, union members, and environmentalists would want to do the same given Portune's moderate and unappealing nature. FitzGerald on the other hand already got the state party's endorsement as well as other huge ones from Senator Sherrod Brown, former Governor Ted Strickland, Reps Marcy Kaptur and Marcia Fudge, and tons of unions. FitzGerald also has the money advantage against Portune and he's been to all 88 counties. Portune hasn't and has a lot of groundwork to make up in just 4 months.

Besides, Portune suffers from the same problem FitzGerald does, name recognition and money. The fact that Portune is from Hamilton County would make it competitive there against Kasich, but he would just end up losing for the same reason Strickland lost with the North not coming in big for him. FitzGerald won't get by him easily which is unfortunate, but once PPP polls the primary, I think he will have a nice advantage over Portune.

I like Fitzgerald a lot and think he's a decent guy who'd make a good Governor.  That being said, I haven't been too impressed by him as a candidate.  If Portune beats him in the primary after joining this late in the game, it means that Fitzgerald was easily the weaker candidate.  I'd much perfer Fitzgerald, but the more important thing is running the stronger candidate.  If Portune wins the primary, despite all of Fitzgerald's advantages, so be it.  BTW, how could it be that you'd prefer four more years of Kasich to four years of Portune? 

From a voting perspective, not really. I wouldn't even vote for Kasich if it was only him and Charlie Earl on the ballot, but my vote will normally go to whoever I think is the most progressive/liberal, is someone who I agree with on some of the most important issues, and would seem like an effective, bipartisan leader. Portune would never meet those requirements for me because even if he did get elected, I doubt he would stand against the legislature on any economic issues. So I'll vote for FitzGerald in the primary/general (assuming he beats Portune), but in some miraculous, well-funded, popular campaign where Portune somehow beats FitzGerald, I'll vote for Spisak, the Green candidate in protest.

I also tried finding out some of this Portune's issues and while he's yet to make a stance on many of them, his position as Commissioner gives us a chance of what to expect in his campaign. He cut 25% of the functions of the county government, would decrease unemployment (is totally lying there because Cincinnati's unemployment is higher than the overall state's), would strive for transportation reform (I'll agree there at least), and would pretty much continue most of Kasich's failed policies as a fiscal conservative. It's a lot harder to find his views on social issues, but it would seem likely that he's pro-gun as opposed to FitzGerald who's pro-gun control. I also don't see why he wouldn't be pro-same-sex marriage, but I found this gem that he stated before: "Gay marriage is not a matter the commissioners need weigh in on." So he's not against it, but he certainly won't advocate for it like FitzGerald will. As for other Ohio social issues like abortion or the death penalty, I wouldn't see him being very liberal on either and VoteSmart has nothing on this guy on the issues.

So he's not all that different from Kasich. Sure he might not sign anything as crazy as SB5, but I would see a total lack of trust in him as Governor. Assuming Republicans retain control of both houses of the legislature next year and they continue to pass extreme legislation, I wouldn't feel confident that Portune would always veto the bills that would need to be vetoed. I'm just really hoping now though that Ted Stevenot announces his plans to run against Kasich. Neither him nor Portune will win their respective primary, but Stevenot would at least help FitzGerald out in the long run by forcing both major party candidates, Kasich and FitzGerald, to spend money in the primaries. Stevenot will need to decide soon to because the filing deadline is in about one month for partisan candidates.

[LeBron]

-_____-

Portune will regret this. Not only will he not get by FitzGerald, but Kasich's already large financial advantage will put him even closer to re-election. He's going after FitzGerald for a mistake that Kearney himself made. Sorry, but if Portune would rather have another term of John Kasich rather than get FitzGerald in there, then he's not a real Democrat.

My impression is that Portune is probably running because he thinks FitzGerald is toast and he wants to give the Democrats another option than letting Kasich coast to re-election. That's really the only reason people start a campaign this late, well either that or because they're mad at the other candidate about some issue, but that doesn't seem to have happened here.

Kasich v. FitzGerald may actually be a lot closer than Kasich v. Portune. Even for me, if Portune does win the primary, I will just end up voting for the Green candidate, Dennis Spisak, and I could see a lot of other liberals, union members, and environmentalists would want to do the same given Portune's moderate and unappealing nature. FitzGerald on the other hand already got the state party's endorsement as well as other huge ones from Senator Sherrod Brown, former Governor Ted Strickland, Reps Marcy Kaptur and Marcia Fudge, and tons of unions. FitzGerald also has the money advantage against Portune and he's been to all 88 counties. Portune hasn't and has a lot of groundwork to make up in just 4 months.

Besides, Portune suffers from the same problem FitzGerald does, name recognition and money. The fact that Portune is from Hamilton County would make it competitive there against Kasich, but he would just end up losing for the same reason Strickland lost with the North not coming in big for him. FitzGerald won't get by him easily which is unfortunate, but once PPP polls the primary, I think he will have a nice advantage over Portune.

I like Fitzgerald a lot and think he's a decent guy who'd make a good Governor.  That being said, I haven't been too impressed by him as a candidate.  If Portune beats him in the primary after joining this late in the game, it means that Fitzgerald was easily the weaker candidate.  I'd much perfer Fitzgerald, but the more important thing is running the stronger candidate.  If Portune wins the primary, despite all of Fitzgerald's advantages, so be it.  BTW, how could it be that you'd prefer four more years of Kasich to four years of Portune?  

From a voting perspective, not really. I wouldn't even vote for Kasich if it was only him and Charlie Earl on the ballot, but my vote will normally go to whoever I think is the most progressive/liberal, is someone who I agree with on some of the most important issues, and would seem like an effective, bipartisan leader. Portune would never meet those requirements for me because even if he did get elected, I doubt he would stand against the legislature on any economic issues. So I'll vote for FitzGerald in the primary/general (assuming he beats Portune), but in some miraculous, well-funded, popular campaign where Portune somehow beats FitzGerald, I'll vote for Spisak, the Green candidate in protest.

I also tried finding out some of this Portune's issues and while he's yet to make a stance on many of them, his position as Commissioner gives us a chance of what to expect in his campaign. He cut 25% of the functions of the county government, would decrease unemployment (is totally lying there because Cincinnati's unemployment is higher than the overall state's), would strive for transportation reform (I'll agree there at least), and would pretty much continue most of Kasich's failed policies as a fiscal conservative. It's a lot harder to find his views on social issues, but it would seem likely that he's pro-gun as opposed to FitzGerald who's pro-gun control. I also don't see why he wouldn't be pro-same-sex marriage, but I found this gem that he stated before: "Gay marriage is not a matter the commissioners need weigh in on." So he's not against it, but he certainly won't advocate for it like FitzGerald will. As for other Ohio social issues like abortion or the death penalty, I wouldn't see him being very liberal on either and VoteSmart has nothing on this guy on the issues.

http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.oh_cincinnati_msa.htm
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST39000003

That sounds great and all, but Middletown, Ohio isn't even in Hamilton County. It's a city north of there so that's negligible. I'm just referring to Cincinnati which is the county's largest city and according to these BLS graphs which is the only data I can find without Middletown's unemployment being averaged with Cincinnati, it hasn't been updated for awhile, but at one point in the summer Cincinnati itself had an unemployment rate 1.1% higher than Ohio.

Cincinnati Unemployment Rate as of August 2013

Middletown Unemployment Rate as of August 2013

[LeBron]

An awesome article I found which could possibly destroy Portune's chances and credentials

Portune is currently in the stage of forming an exploratory committee, but he's currently in a mess and will need 1,000 signatures delivered to Husted's desk by February 5th (one month) or else he won't qualify for the Democratic primary ballot. Two Democratic Cincinnati Councilmen who Portune used to serve with have refused to change their endorsement and one is saying Portune cannot win against FitzGerald. Portune is saying though that if it becomes obvious he can't beat FitzGerald, he'll drop out (so he should have dropped out by now).

Portune's campaign has failed and has no idea yet who will run with him. He claims to be deciding between 4 possible contenders for his Lt. Governor mate, but he's refused to say who they are. C. Ellen Connally, the Cuyahoga County Council President, has not only stated she won't run for re-election, but also said she would not run with Portune (I don't blame her) leaving Portune possibly high and dry for a running mate. Time is slowly running out for Portune and he should know that Husted won't cut him a break.

[LeBron]

Portune apparently wants to talk about how important it is to unite with the party as a whole and not be "negative" about it. Umm, what planet is he living on? The state party was united on endorsing one, sole Democratic candidate for Governor and Portune is the only one who wants to ruin that. A primary fight between FitzGerald and Portune will just lead to a split among Ohio Democrats between the moderate and establishment wing, so Portune fails.....again. He should stick around in the media though because I'm having fun tearing this guy apart!

[LeBron]

Stevenot states Brenda Mack's financial problems were not his reason for dropping out, State Rep. John Adams being described as a possible gubernatorial Tea Party contender in the GOP primary, Portune's other screw over of Democrats in 2008, likely fake Kucinich rumors for Governor, and FitzGerald's continued search for a running mate

Got all of that? The Plain Dealer often has their articles divided into sections, but anyways, Mack had a similar problem to Kearney, but it wasn't owing nearly $1 million to the IRS. She apparently had a rare form of cancer that she survived, but left her broke, but that wasn't Stevenot's reason for declining a run. His reasons are still unclear, but perhaps he may have been sane enough to realize unlike Portune that he would not be able to make it through a primary especially after the Ohio Tea Party organization's power in the race was questioned. Meanwhile, Zawistowski is still searching for another potential challenger who could be State Rep. John Adams. While he hasn't expressed interest, he's angry with the current state of the Kasich Administration for also not being conservative enough. If he ran, he could stand a much better chance than Stevenot as an elected politician himself who's high up in the GOP leadership in the State House of Representatives. That's only a hope though and the Ohio Tea Party is still scurrying trying to find somebody to be the bait against Kasich.

Meanwhile, there's rumors still spreading around that former U.S. Representative and current Fox News contributor, Dennis Kucinich, is a potential Democratic candidate for Governor. The problem, as highlighted in the article is he's up in DC now and even if he did come back at the last moment, he would need to pick a running mate right away and get 1,000 signatures within a month which won't happen. There's always hope for 2018 though (if Kasich wins re-election) or 2022 (if FitzGerald wins in 2014) to get a Kucinich run for Ohio Governor. And FitzGerald is still searching for running mates. The Cincinnati State University President already declined a run and a run with Betty Sutton has been described as "unlikely" because of Sutton's new federal job. Ohio House Minority Tracy Maxwell Heard is still a hopeful and potential running mate of FitzGerald, but Heard hasn't said anything on that, so the search may still be on.

With the latest on Portune, not only is he trying to screw Ohio Democrats in this gubernatorial election, but the media found out that back in 2008, he screwed over his own Hamilton County Democrats as well because he cut a deal with Republicans to give them a commissioner seat and thus the majority just so Portune could go unopposed to any challenger that year. If he's scared of Republicans, then why the hell is he running for Governor? What's he going to do if he were to beat FitzGerald? Drop out of the general election because he's afraid he can't beat Kasich? He's pathetic. He really is. Also he's now going to attempt to intimidate FitzGerald since he's "good friends" with the former Treasurer of Cuyahoga County, Jim Rokakis. FitzGerald must be shaking in his boots!



Portune continues to throw a tantrum over the Hamilton County Democratic Party refusing to endorse him and the Kearney controversy again

And since I'm mentioning the one hit wonder, here's this other gem I found of him being completely disrespectful to Ed FitzGerald. Portune says Fitz can't "connect with people" even though he's been running a people, 88 county campaign for over 7 months now while Portune hasn't done s**t, he's attacking Fitz's "commitment to African Americans" despite the fact that he's proven time and time again that he's committed to them by going off on Kasich's minority restricting voting laws, having an African American-friendly ticket, and receiving Rep. Marcia Fudge's endorsement already. Just because Kearney resigned from FitzGerald's ticket for a financial issue that was Kearney's fault, not Fitz's, doesn't mean FitzGerald is against African Americans. It's a blatant, uncalled for attack. And Portune is also saying that FitzGerald is not about "building a party" but it's rather "about Ed." Those comments are so ignorant that it doesn't even really merit response, but Portune is the one destroying the Ohio Democratic Party by trying to split it more than stabilize it. And he can't be serious about that last comment. Ever since he entered the race, the media has all gone to him which is what he wants. Portune is running out of spite and revenge against FitzGerald rather than running for the purpose of helping the state. This guy has serious issues.

[LeBron]

I'm honestly completely satisfied with FitzGerald's candidacy, but I'm kind of amused by how big of a FitzGerald fan Adam is. I have my own fanboyism for candidates (Bernie Sanders outside of Utah, Ben McAdams inside Utah), but it's rather remarkable.

Well it will be my first Governor election that I'll be actively involved/can vote in plus not only do I respect his leftist views, but he was my Mayor, he's my current County Executive, and I had the opportunity to intern for him before since my family knows his wife from church. So it's not just because I like his political views because if it was that, I would also be hyping over Bernie Sanders, Sherrod Brown, Dennis Kucinich etc. just as much.

But yeah TJ, there's no way Kucinich will run for Governor. Those were just fake rumors and I would take nothing of it, but if Kasich does win re-election this year, I wouldn't count him out for what could be an impressive run in 2018. Usually, after 8 years of a politician as Governor who's of the same party, they'll be more open to voting for the other party especially if the economy's in a wreck or the outgoing Governor is involved in a scandal of some sort. In Kasich's case, with GOP super-majorities in both houses of the legislatures, there would be no re-election threat for him not to try passing any right-to-work laws, 6 week abortion bans, or any other extreme legislation Kasich would want to pass if he's re-elected.

With Zawistowski, I wouldn't go that far. It would be a failed campaign if the Tea Party recruits somebody at the last second, but the money they'll receive from outside groups and will fund raise throughout the state will cause Kasich to at least spend some money.

For Portune, I can't find anything nice about the guy. A last minute entree who can't find a running mate, nobody has any idea who he is and what he supports, his reason for entering is a joke, his comments about FitzGerald were awful (and Minority Leader Tracy Maxwell Heard, an African American, agreed), he's a moderate, and he's trying to screw over Ohio Democrats again just like he did in 2008 by putting himself before the party. Just to put all of that in brief. And keep in mind, assuming FitzGerald wins the primary, he'll be running against the executive Republicans and has Nina Turner, an African American State Senator, who agreed to be on the same slate back in March. She won't be running for Lt. Gov with him, but she is running nonetheless. Also, as CC Executive, FitzGerald had 4 African Americans who he had work for him in his Cabinet. Kasich had none. He sure isn't the best African American-friendly Democrat in Ohio, but when the other options are John Kasich and Charlie Earl, Rep. Fudge made the right choice and I have no doubt that the Ohio Black Legislative Caucus will endorse FitzGerald to if Portune does go through with this run.

[LeBron]

I told you guys it would happen eventually and it did! Ed FitzGerald has released his first TV ad as of yesterday called "Promise" and I love it! As opposed to his radio ad, the TV ad will get across a lot easier. It's a more positive ad than it is negative and it's narrated by and features FitzGerald himself. It's a good play against Kasich when Kasich hasn't mentioned FitzGerald in any of his ads and FitzGerald didn't, either. It will be an effective ad when he didn't attack his opponent by name, but he did attack Kasich's Tea Party policies and is stressing what FitzGerald would do as Governor - only thing it misses is FitzGerald's positive record of cleaning up corruption and creating jobs and surpluses, but that's for another ad at another time.

Oh, and he did it without an inch of help from Peter Shumlin btw; spending it with the help of the state party, several in-state fundraisers, and the help of average Ohioans and he'll keep the ad up as long as humanly possible as long as we donate to him so he can keep it on the air!

[LeBron]

I know this is a little old, but since no one has posted it yet, Fitzgerald has called on Kasich to take a pledge to serve his entire second term.

Here's the thing though. If Kasich runs for President, this will be within the first two years of being elected to a second term and like with Walker, Christie, Haley, Brownback (if he survives) and anyone else I'm forgetting, they'll be out of the state campaigning and leaving the state with no clear leader. For FitzGerald, it's different because he doesn't have to travel to 49 different states but instead only 87 counties all of which are smaller than Cuyahoga County and he's doing this at the end of his term. Basically, Kasich has a duty to serve out his full 4 year term if re-elected, but FitzGerald shouldn't be forced to run for re-election to his current position if he doesn't want to. He's doing what any young politician would do and that's pursuing higher goals in the finishing of his successful term as CC Executive and he's definitely young enough to continue to build his way up the ladder.

If Ohio Republicans really want to attack Team FitzGerald over being an opportunist, Kasich did the same thing when he abandoned Ohio once to work with a national, biased media outlet and when the time was convenient for himself, he barged back into our state, achieved most of his support from outside Tea Party groups, and now after possibly winning a second time, might be thinking of abandoning Ohio if re-elected in 2014 after now forcing us to pay a small share of the convention cost so Kasich can get his moment at the RNC. FitzGerald practically served out a full term as Lakewood Mayor and when elected Governor, will have served through the end  of his term as Cuyahoga County Executive as opposed to Kasich who will have left in the middle of it. If FitzGerald wins the Governorship, we’ll have an elected official, likely Armond Budish, succeed him right away as CC Executive whereas if Kasich goes for and were to win the Presidency, then we would have Mary Taylor, the Lieutenant Governor, take the position without even being elected to it.

Yo Adam, your favorite candidate's out again.

Good news for Fitzy.

OH Oh I Hope he runs against Portman in 2016. Such a good candidate and we're stuck with Fitzgerald...

Portune won't run against Portman because like I said, given his condition, he can't run an effective statewide campaign and there's already a decent Democrat, Bob Hagan, in that race. There's bound to be a few bigger names to file to who think Hagan can’t beat Portman (which is probably true since Hagan is a little too socially liberal for the state). Portune really messed up big time as is with the controversy he was creating within the state Democratic Party plus he only got in the statewide race for Governor in the first place because of the Kearney debacle which he blamed FitzGerald for.