This will be fun to look back at and laugh at in November.
Obviously Fetterman isn't going to win by 9, there is 13% undecided and Rs will consolidate around Oz more than they are right now.
But there is severe warning signs for Oz that you can't just wash away. His favorability rating is abysmal, especially with Independents.
They didn’t overestimate Dems in PA nearly as much as in MI/WI. In fact I struggle to think of a single poll that had Biden up by as much as 9. Most had him up by about 4 or so. That’s only three points more than the actual result, so even if you assume the same error applies here with Trump off the ballot (not logical in itself since polls were more accurate here in 2018), that’s still Fetterman +6. Again, WELL outside the margin of error. Obviously plenty of time for things to change, but this poll (the first decent head to head poll we’ve had since the primary?) shows Oz clearly starts from behind.
Which really isn’t too surprising as he is a deeply controversial carpet-bagger with no political experience whose claim to fame is being a TV medical quack. Now granted, Trump (once, barely) won in PA with no better credentials, but still. It’s not exactly an advantage. And Fetterman is a pretty “good fit” for his state. In a neutral year I’d say he’s clearly favored. As it is likely to be an R wave year, Oz will likely come a lot closer and may even squeak out a win if the wave is big enough, but I don't consider him favored. This may be like FL-2018 where a state that was only won by a point by the winning party in the last presidential race nonetheless sees that party grab a Senate seat and hold the governorship.
