Targoz Market Research: Reeves +1, Beshear +19 (lol)

[IceSpear]

Same pollster also had TN-Sen as a tie. Anyone who believes this will be getting truckloads of egg on their face just as all the posters in the previous thread did.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=305681.0

[IceSpear]

Christ all polls lately (D primary, gubernatorial this year, and otherwise) are at the junkiest point I think I've ever seen. Polling is in crisis.

Poll released that contradicts my narrative
"Am I wrong? No, it's the polling industry in crisis."

So you're putting all your chips on Beshear winning by double digits, huh? Bold move, we'll see if it pays off. It certainly didn't with the last "Targoz" poll:

LOL. RIP IceSpear. If two polls show this race tied, it isn't really "Safe R" anymore, huh?

[IceSpear]

This explains why the Kentucky poll is the way it is:



Here is the religious breakdown of Kentucky according to pewforum:

LMAO

Tech Tim, take it away...

[IceSpear]

y’all know that the 23% “something else” is almost certainly people who were listening for “Christian” (or “Baptist,” etc.) and not massive oversampling of Hindus, right?

Yes, the fact they included a detailed religious breakdown is a luxury. Religion is a subjective variable that gets more  subjective based on the  number of provided options. You cannot weight by it because what is a member of 'x' religion in these days. Depending on the survey a 'x' can be as be as light or as heavy as the  viewer interprets it to be. 'X' can contain a respondent who only goes to services once a  year, and a respondent who goes every week. Both people call themselves 'X's but they are clearly distinct. Meanwhile, with increasing secularism more people may think of themselves as agnostic or nonreligious, even though they may still follow certain religious customs they were raised in or respond "yes I'm a X" if questioned hard enough. It's just like self-identified ideology, partisanship, or class - these are all flawed statistics when compared to the  hard stuff like race, gender, education, age, income, or geographic region.

If you guys really want to just throw out polls that disagree with your narrative, rather then throw them on the pile, you can do that without telling us and providing a bunch of justification.

Yes, it is such a luxury to have the pollster that convinced half of Atlas Phil Bredesen still had a chance back in the game.

[IceSpear]

While we're on the subject, do the Republicans even have real candidates for Secretary of State and Attorney General? They do have people running, but I can't even imagine either one of them winning a city council race, let alone a statewide office.

These guys make Matt Bevin look like a great statesman.

It doesn’t fdcking matter, Republicans are going to sweep Kentucky next tuesday, and there will be plenty of eggs for you.

The Atlas Forum Tuesday diet:

[IceSpear]

lol, Beshear is gonna curbstomp.

Won't be by this much, but I will definitely lol when y'all have egg on your faces. That's for sure.

Quoted for posterity.

While we're on the subject, do the Republicans even have real candidates for Secretary of State and Attorney General? They do have people running, but I can't even imagine either one of them winning a city council race, let alone a statewide office.

These guys make Matt Bevin look like a great statesman.

It doesn’t fdcking matter, Republicans are going to sweep Kentucky next tuesday, and there will be plenty of eggs for you.

The Atlas Forum Tuesday diet:

Exactly this, but that will be the diet for YOU and the majority of this forum. Not me and the other actual Kentuckians who have correctly predicted the outcome.

I honestly can't even imagine being so arrogant as to pretend to know more about a state than the people who actually live in it. To the point I'll even mock those who do for having a differing opinion even though they obviously have much more relevant experience than I do.

No sir, that takes a SPECIAL kind of arrogance. Some might even call it "dickishness" or "stupidity."

As a Kentuckian I suppose I just wasn't raised to be that arrogant. We tend to have a certain respect for the lived experience of others, if nothing else, down here. And that's something that crosses party lines. This particular kind of caustic dismissiveness and smugness seems to be peculiar to the Northeast.

Yes, I remember when the Democrats from Tennessee told me Bredesen was going to win and I got egg on my face for predicting Blackburn would win by double digits despite that. Oh wait...

[IceSpear]

Icespear keeps talking about Bredesen and Bredesen supported Kavanaugh,  when the Dem caucus was united against Kavanaugh.  Beshear isnt trying to run against Democrats in KY

I realize this is an OC post but I will reply to it because some people unironically think it.

The idea that Democrats who toe the party line will be more electable in crimson red states than more moderate Democrats is utter lunacy.

[IceSpear]

Gold standard! Sure they were off by 19 points, but they got the winner right! Clearly more accurate than Mason Dixon.