2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gass3268]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

[Gass3268]

Are people really freaking out about a 1% decline at 538 and a +.03 R in the GCB average? I guess it is Atlas.

[Gass3268]

CBS battleground tracker remained flat at D+3. They said it’s been pretty consistent over the past month. They are projecting a 225-210 D House (+/-13).

Source

Oh, this model by YouGov gives Dems a 89% of winning the House.

[Gass3268]

I'm genuinely asking this:

What is the GCB lead that the Dems need to give them a House majority?

If I recall correctly, the threshold is 7%, isn't it? Because if so, that's exactly where the RCP Average is at....

Look above, Nate Silver has it at 5.7%. It’s dropped from the original 7 due to a number of factors.

[Gass3268]

Ipsos/Reuters is like one of the worst pollsters, so don't get too excited.

Agreed, but remember when they had it R+1 over the summer and every paper and news organization ran with it?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059204932694360065

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1059208054745587712

[Gass3268]

IBD/TIPP GCB poll --- D+9

Dem 50
Rep 41

https://www.investors.com/politics/midterm-elections-democrats-generic-ballot-trump-approval-bid-tipp/

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Good news, this only had D+2 the last poll. This is another Live Phone poll, so it sort of balances out the ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ polls that looked a bit worse (and had Rs improving). This has the opposite trend of Dems improving, and 9 is just that little bit higher than 7 or 8 that makes it just a bit more comfortable.

This was the "Muh Kavanaugh Bump" poll along with NPR/PBS/Marist.

[Gass3268]

Lol!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294038061277184

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059300087623385088

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294632163438592

[Gass3268]

Wyoming - AL

Liz Cheney (R) 55
Greg Hunter (D) 28
Richard Brubaker (L) 7
Daniel Clyde Cummings (C) 6

Source

[Gass3268]

Source

[Gass3268]

The real Rassy, aka Scotty 2 Hotty, with HarrisX has it at D+12:

Democrats 52%
Republicans 40%

Source

[Gass3268]

So we have polls showing everything from D+15 to D+3 and even R+1? What the hell?

If we just look at the A-rated pollsters:

ABC/WaPo D+8
IBD/TIPP D+9
NBC/WSJ D+7
CNN/SSRS D+13

I wonder if we will get a Fox, Quinnipiac or Monmouth today.

[Gass3268]

Suffolk/USA Today did county "bellwether" polls for Florida and Ohio:

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059474764652298241

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059475832157147137

I really don't consider either of these counties to be real bellweathers any more. The fact that Volusia is tied after going for Trump by 13 and Brown and Cordray are up in Clark County, which Trump won by 19, speaks volumes.

[Gass3268]

Volusia County?!?   If the Dems are winning or even close there then the GOP really is screwed!

This is in DeSantis' home district too.

[Gass3268]

Is anyone else constantly hitting hitting refresh on Kyle Kondik's twitter feed to see their final ratings?

[Gass3268]

Slew of new polls. Most noteworthy is Weak Gun Control Candidate McBath up 6-

https://twitter.com/healthcarevoter/status/1059498776157659136?s=21

Unfortunately, these are Change Research polls.

Dammit

[Gass3268]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

Holy crap. Late deciders seem to be breaking very heavily for Democrats.

This is that USC poll that was +17 last week.

[Gass3268]

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76-24% Democrat. They also estimate that 62.6% (+/– 2%) of registered Latino voters will cast their vote.

Source

[Gass3268]

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76-24% Democrat. They also estimate that 62.6% (+/– 2%) of registered Latino voters will cast their vote.

Source

63% in a midterm would be unprecedented. I'll believe it when I see it.

Even cutting 10 points off would be significant. Based on early vote it does look like Latino voters are turning out more and are more engaged. Does that last into tomorrow?

[Gass3268]

The final Ipsos/Reuters:

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Source

[Gass3268]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

Nice!

A majority of respondents (50-44) believe Republicans are going to keep the House. This measure has always aligned with the actual result. Let's hope this year it aligns with delusion and fake news.

This number is probably skewed because of how freaked out and nihilistic Dems are right now

I think you are correct:

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812073822138369

[Gass3268]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

This should bump the GCB over 9 on 538 and maybe over 8 on RCP, if they include it.

[Gass3268]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

This should bump the GCB over 9 on 538 and maybe over 8 on RCP, if they include it.

8.7 on 538 (50.7-42.0)

Doesn't look like they have included it (yet?)

[Gass3268]

Gallup’s last CGB: D+11 https://mobile.twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1059812562517348352/photo/1

This should bump the GCB over 9 on 538 and maybe over 8 on RCP, if they include it.

8.7 on 538 (50.7-42.0)

Doesn't look like they have included it (yet?)

They did.  You can see it added today on the Latest Polls page.  On the GCB page, click "Show More Polls" to see it; because the sample period is a little older (Oct. 15-28) it's not near the top.

Ah, didn't know it was that old. Thanks!