leading 2012 GOP presidential candidates as of early 2009?

[AndrewTX]

Sorry, but people like Pawlenty, Sanford, Bush and others who are going to be out of office in 2006, 2008, or in 2010 will not make any major impact in the race.
 
 My choices were Palin, Crist, Thune, and Vitter.

[Mr. Morden]

Are you saying that people leaving office as late as 2010 are not going to be factors in 2012 *because* they will have been out of office too long?  You mean like how Giuliani, Romney, and Thompson have been nonfactors in 2008 because of being out of office too long? 

[AndrewTX]

No, but they bring nothing to the field in 2008, so why would they be any more important in 2012?

[Reaganfan]

Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and Bobby Jindal all come to mind as possible candidates. But knowing how unpredictable politics is...I'll say George Allen will make a comeback as Governor of Virginia.

[SPC]

Jeb Bush, Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, and Bobby Jindal all come to mind as possible candidates. But knowing how unpredictable politics is...I'll say George Allen will make a comeback as Governor of Virginia.

I hope George Allen is drafted as the Republican nominee next year. Not that I like his politics, I just think the race would be hilarious to watch.

[Mr. Morden]

While I'm sticking with my choice of Jeb Bush as the most likely famous frontrunner, I'm starting to think that Romney might be able to pull off being the famous frontrunner if Jeb doesn't run.  By 2012, McCain will be too old, and if Giuliani doesn't make it in 2008, everyone will read it as a sign that the GOP won't accept him as their party's standard bearer, so there'd be little point to him running again.  Thompson....maybe, but he'd also be getting kind of old by 2012, and I'm not sure he wants the presidency so badly that he'd put himself through that again if he doesn't get it the first time.

But I could definitely imagine a scenario where, say, Thompson is the GOP nominee in 2008, but loses the GE, and Romney then becomes the early frontrunner for 2012, just based on his name ID.  I could definitely see Romney going for it a second time, and if no one else famous is making noises about running, he'd likely be leading all the early polls.

[Kevin]

Alos what about current Utah Governor Jon Huntsmen Jr? He is of a famous family name, He would only be in his early 50's in 2012 and he has been very good at his current position as Governor of Utah?

So what does everybody think? 

[DownWithTheLeft]

Jindal

[Sensei]

Perhaps Charlie Crist

[Robespierre's Jaw]

Perhaps Charlie Crist

When I voted ages ago, I said Governors Crist and Pawlenty. But, looking back on it I would include Mike Pence and Lindsey Graham into the calculations. Though Bobby Jindal could be a possiblity in 2012, I'd think that he'd be a contender in 2016.

[The Duke]

Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, and Tim Pawlenty will all be top tier candidates or have te potential to be.  My hunch is that Crist proves to be the best of the three.

Jeb will not run, nor would he be all that strong a candidate if he did.

Gieliani will also have a strong case under the right conditions.  Let's say Giuliani continues to be the only GOP candidate who polls well in GE matchups, and we nominate Romney or Thompson anyway.  They crash and burn.  Won't it become immediately obvious to everyone that the GOP should have nominated Rudy?  Won't we regret not having done so as soon as Hillary takes office?  Isn't he the immediate frontrunner in 2012 if for no other reason that people will regret not having nominated the only guy who could have won?  And since every big time Republican will have shot their wad in 2008 and we have a bunch of Governors with no national security credentials running in 2012, Doesn't the race suddenly become Rudy versus the seven dwarves?

[SPC]

Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, and Tim Pawlenty will all be top tier candidates or have te potential to be.  My hunch is that Crist proves to be the best of the three.

Jeb will not run, nor would he be all that strong a candidate if he did.

Gieliani will also have a strong case under the right conditions.  Let's say Giuliani continues to be the only GOP candidate who polls well in GE matchups, and we nominate Romney or Thompson anyway.  They crash and burn.  Won't it become immediately obvious to everyone that the GOP should have nominated Rudy?  Won't we regret not having done so as soon as Hillary takes office?  Isn't he the immediate frontrunner in 2012 if for no other reason that people will regret not having nominated the only guy who could have won?  And since every big time Republican will have shot their wad in 2008 and we have a bunch of Governors with no national security credentials running in 2012, Doesn't the race suddenly become Rudy versus the seven dwarves?

Even if Rudy were to become the nominee and lose, if it were a close race (e.g. 2000), he would probably become the 2012 frontrunner, as he could conceivably win in a more GOP-friendly year.

[The Duke]

Charlie Crist, Bobby Jindal, and Tim Pawlenty will all be top tier candidates or have te potential to be.  My hunch is that Crist proves to be the best of the three.

Jeb will not run, nor would he be all that strong a candidate if he did.

Gieliani will also have a strong case under the right conditions.  Let's say Giuliani continues to be the only GOP candidate who polls well in GE matchups, and we nominate Romney or Thompson anyway.  They crash and burn.  Won't it become immediately obvious to everyone that the GOP should have nominated Rudy?  Won't we regret not having done so as soon as Hillary takes office?  Isn't he the immediate frontrunner in 2012 if for no other reason that people will regret not having nominated the only guy who could have won?  And since every big time Republican will have shot their wad in 2008 and we have a bunch of Governors with no national security credentials running in 2012, Doesn't the race suddenly become Rudy versus the seven dwarves?

Even if Rudy were to become the nominee and lose, if it were a close race (e.g. 2000), he would probably become the 2012 frontrunner, as he could conceivably win in a more GOP-friendly year.

If Rudy runs and loses in the general, Republicans will not consider hium the front runner in 2012.  We will have compromised on abortion, an issue that for many in our party is a black or white moral issue, and gotten nothing for it.  If Rudy were pro-life and ten years younger, he could run well in 2008 and lose and blame it on the anti-Bush tide and then come back in 2012.  But since he'll be 68 in 2012 (People forget how old these baby boomers are getting) and he's pro choice, he gets one shot at a general and only one shot.

[Orser67]

I went with Jeb Bush as the famous frontrunner, mostly by default.  I chose Crist and his seventy percent approval rating as the "unknown" candidate, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's the famous candidate by 2012.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, so it's March 2009 now, and wow, were we far off?  Jeb Bush as the 2012 frontrunner?  Fred Thompson getting as many votes in this poll as Huckabee and Romney combined?

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Mike Huckabee!

[HappyWarrior]

Mark my words, if the Republicans lose in '08, Norm Coleman will be the leading GOP candidate.

lol I just read this again.  This is a beautiful quote.

[pbrower2a]

Mike Huckabee!

Huckabee will be able to hold onto the Clinton-but-not-Obama states of 2008, but I see him gaining nothing that McCain lost. His "Fair Tax" will be just the thing... to cripple small-business establishment and growth.

He is the best of a weak lot.

[Mr. Morden]

By 2012, McCain will be too old, and if Giuliani doesn't make it in 2008, everyone will read it as a sign that the GOP won't accept him as their party's standard bearer, so there'd be little point to him running again.  Thompson....maybe, but he'd also be getting kind of old by 2012, and I'm not sure he wants the presidency so badly that he'd put himself through that again if he doesn't get it the first time.

But I could definitely imagine a scenario where, say, Thompson is the GOP nominee in 2008, but loses the GE, and Romney then becomes the early frontrunner for 2012, just based on his name ID.  I could definitely see Romney going for it a second time, and if no one else famous is making noises about running, he'd likely be leading all the early polls.

OK, I was way off with the whole Jeb Bush thing, but at least in this part, I was somewhat close (if you replace Thompson's name with McCain's).  Granted, Romney isn't leading all the early polls, it's just that he's up there with Huck and Palin.  But I do think that Romney is the frontrunner at this early stage.