2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

ProgressiveModerate: could you make Georgia (and presumably Arizona when it certifies) just a little bit darker?  That extremely light blue is almost indistinguishable from a non-certified state.

I could, but because the color is based off a function, states like ME, MN, and TX would also become darker. Your choice

I think it would be improved if it all darkened.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Of these, four is definitely the best although two would be if you had an even deeper blue/red to distinguish states like Florida and Michigan from states like Oklahoma and Massachusetts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Another more complex gradient scale

This is your best one by far!

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Thanks. I just really hate it mathematically since the color scale is a piecewise function rather than one solid contiguous function.

FWIW, the 2nd to last one was also a huge improvement if you prefer that equation.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Are there any Clinton-Trump states out of this?

South Florida could very well be one. I think that one goes down to the wire. Clinton won it by 7, so with a 22-point swing in Miami-Dade and a 5-point swing in Broward you can see how things get very close. Democratic swings in the Tampa Bay area and the Southwestern coast might ease things a bit, but I still think that one is within 1 point either way.

Rio Grande and California are off-chances too, but I doubt it. Clinton won RG by 10, and the Democratic swings in the Austin-San Antonio area should seriously tamp down whatever happened near the river itself. California was only a 2-point win in 2016, but it most likely swung to Biden given that Kern, Fresno and Sacramento did (though it definitely trended R). So I'd say maybe one, maybe none.

I'm not familiar with the actual borders of your maps, but I can tell you that Biden outright won the Texas Triangle and adding the Rio Grande Valley moves it further to the left (although by less than it historically would.) If the state of Rio Grande drops Houston and Dallas, it should be a pretty comfortable Biden win.

As for Florida, Biden wins everything below the Alachua-Volusia Line, Trump wins if the state includes anything further north.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hahaha! Ducey's future in the GOP is over!

Looks like killing Ducey and Kemp is just gonna accelerate the Virginification of GA and AZ lmao. They have such a limited bench in both states.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Does anyone have the NPV to two decimal points now?  The NYT is only to one.  It's obvious that Pennsylvania and New Jersey have now trended Republican.  Alabama, North Carolina, and even North Dakota may now be R-trending as well, but I'll need two decimal points to confirm those.

Biden: 51.28%
Trump: 46.89%

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I see. So best guess is that Biden nets 50k votes out of Suffolk (winning VBM by 33 points, losing the county overall by 3) and maybe 60k out of Westchester (winning VBM by 60 points and the county as a whole by 35)

Honestly, I think those could both be underestimates.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Proud of my state for pushing Biden past 270.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Biden won Mission Hills, KS by 39%. Clinton won it by a point in 2016. Also Romney +40

Does that make it the only place in the country where >50% of the electorate voted for both Romney and Biden?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296

You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1350619147898679296
You can even see sub racial divides. The extreme south of dallas county is actually upper middle class educated black suburbs, so you can see them swing blue, while the red area above them are poorer less educated black inner city urban areas.

Okay, how the hell are the Park Cities and Preston Hollow still going for Republicans? Weird.

In 2012, the super-elite parts of many otherwise staunchly blue counties in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast (e.g. Darien and New Canaan, CT, Winnetka, IL, and Atherton, CA) still voted for Romney. If you think of the suburbs of the South/Sun Belt as following a roughly similar pattern of realignment, but being a few cycles behind their counterparts elsewhere in the country, it makes sense. Buckhead in Atlanta and Paradise Valley in Phoenix also voted for Trump.

But these aren't suburbs. They're neighborhoods right next to Downtown Dallas. If Frisco and Plano flipped, I'd have thought this area of inner Dallas would uave as well. Also, Buckhead voted Clinton/Abrams/Biden, which makes this even stranger. It's like if Beverly Hills or Uptown Manhattan backed a Republican.