German Elections & Politics

[DavidB.]

That's the pre-breakup AfD you're talking about though. Right now the AfD has virtually nothing to say on economic topics aside from their opposition to TTIP.

I already had the impression they had left their economically right-wing program at Lucke's doormat, together with all his stuff. Sad. AfD seems to have become a FN-FPÖ crossover. Especially its geopolitical turn is worrisome (though electorally smart).

[DavidB.]

Two grand coalitions replace two Red-Green governments. A Red-Green government becomes a Black-Red-Green government. This was actually not that horrible of a night for Merkel.

We can't be sure BaWü will be a grand coalition of Greens+CDU.

[DavidB.]

The thing is, I'm not a huge believer in pan-European trends - it's very tempting but it tends to lead to wankery if you rely on it too much.

I'm honestly not sure how to respond to this point. Everyone #analyzing European politics can see that only in a small number of countries radical right-wing parties were relevant political players in 1990, whereas the picture is wholly different in 2016, with radical right-wing parties being strong political forces almost everywhere in Western Europe. In many countries (Norway, Finland, Netherlands, Denmark, Austria, Switzerland, Italy) they have either provided necessary outside support to governments or even been part of governments, and in other countries they have remained oppositional forces yet have nonetheless become important and defining political actors (France, UK, Flanders, Sweden, now possibly Germany). All of these parties mobilize a broadly similar electorate, have a broadly similar political agenda (studies found that the radical right-wing "party family" is more ideologically coherent than the Christian Democrats/Conservatives) on issues that broadly manifest themselves in the same way across Western Europe, and actually even have one issue that is most certainly pan-European: the EU. I am unsure what more evidence one could possibly need to be convinced that this is, in fact, a pan-European trend. I am also unsure what, exactly, would be "wankery". Not taking into account differences between countries or certain nuances might indicate a sloppy #analysis, but I don't know how it would be wankery.

The CDU is an extraordinarily successful machine at hoovering the right, and the AfD has to work against the fact that a large swathe of German voters like to use state elections to experiment, and then come home in the federal election (the closure of the Balkan route will also gradually dissipate the urgency of the refugee crisis). Arguably the Pirates did fill a niche - an anti-establishment bank for voters - especially working-class males - that is now filled by AfD.

Oh, that first part is certainly true. I have not said AfD will doubtlessly do as well in the next Bundestag election -- I even said I do not know whether AfD will even stick around. But something has changed in German politics, and I think "anti-establishment working-class males want a protest party" does not suffice as an explanation for the AfD phenomenon. Many AfD voters do not fall in this category (oftentimes they are not even working-class). Indeed, it seems that the AfD's coalition is similar to those of other radical right-wing parties in Western Europe. I also think many former CDU voters might not "come home" in the next Bundestag election, even if AfD will not receive results similar to those of the Landtag elections that took place today.

[DavidB.]

Meanwhile, FDP ended under the threshold at 4.9% in ST. Lmao!

[DavidB.]

New poll, and a new all-time high for AfD, it seems.

[DavidB.]

tsssss… the chaos if black-red doesn't reach a national majority (which this poll claims we are two points away from!) will not be pleasant.

You'll simply get black-red-green -- if Merkel will still lead the CDU, that is.

[DavidB.]

My Wahl-O-Mat result for one of my favorite cities in the world:

AfD 73.7%
FDP 64.5%
CDU 60.5%
SPD 38.2%
Gruene 35.5%
OeDP 34.2%
Linke 31.6%

Despite my concerns regarding the less than satisfying response vis-a-vis anti-Semitism within the party, I would vote AfD.

When youe establish a successful right-wing party, it's pretty much inevitable that you'll find anti-Semites there. Come one, is anyone really surprised? National conservatism and national liberalism always had an anti-Semitic streak in both Germany and Austria, be it in the German Empire/Austria-Hungary, the Weimar Republic/First Austrian Republic, or in the immediate post-war era. Why should it be any different now?

Hadn't seen this yet, sorry. In many countries, when you establish a successful right-wing party, it is not at all inevitable that there will be anti-Semites. It may be the case in Germany, and it may be the case that I underestimated this. Of course I know everything about the history of national conservatism and national liberalism in Germany and Austria, but the expectation that it would nowadays be different in Germany doesn't seem too strange. Christian parties were anti-Semitic as hell before WWII, yet the CDU is hardly an example of flaming anti-Semitism, so why would the AfD necessarily include anti-Semites? And, even if the party includes them, why would the leadership tolerate this? I may have grossly underestimated this, though. I know the anti-Americanism / pro-Kremlinism / (anti-Semitic) conspiracy theories are popular among the German far right, but it is always hard to make an estimate of the extent to which this is "central" to the ideas of party members and voters. It now appears this "thinking" (perhaps a bit too generous a qualification) is much more central to many AfD politicians and voters' ideas than I thought and hoped.

[DavidB.]

I suppose with each good result, voicing your support for the AfD becomes less of a socially undesirable act hence polling may get more accurate.

This doesn't really seem to be the case, though, does it?

[DavidB.]

 Would this be the first time the CDU has finished third in a state parliamentary election?

No, Brandenburg has had two elections (2004, 2009) with SPD and PDS/Die Linke in first and second place respectively. In the West, Bremen (2011) had SPD and the Greens in first and second place.

[DavidB.]

Why would so many Greens prefer Merkel over Gabriel? The perception of Merkel being more of a "left-winger" on migrant issues than Gabriel? Is that also the reason why relatively many SPD voters would prefer Merkel over Gabriel?

[DavidB.]

I suppose it also has to do with Gabriel being seen as a hothead and not as someone who's particularly statesmanlike.

I read this was received with quite a lot of sympathy because of the fact that this was a response to Nazis saying he should be more like his Nazi father?

[DavidB.]

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care ).

[DavidB.]

Any live streams?

[DavidB.]

Thank you!

[DavidB.]

Exit polls underestimated AfD support in last year's state elections, right?

[DavidB.]

Greens now also below 5% according to ZDF

LMAO

[DavidB.]

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...

[DavidB.]

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...

SPD-CDU are set to have a majority.

You're of course right, forgot about the Erststimmen. A brief moment of stupidity. Still, I wonder what would have been the most likely scenario in the event that SPD + CDU = <50% of seats and Greens = below threshold. SPD-Die Linke with CDU outside support? SPD-CDU with Die Linke outside support? Or SPD-CDU-Die Linke because a coalition with Die Linke would seem warranted in the face of the "danger" that is AfD?

[DavidB.]

  About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.

Don't know if it's an ugly head. I don't mind sacrificing the Greens and the FDP if it means the Nazis don't get in.

(inb4 "the nazis did get in" )

[DavidB.]

 Also, the Tierschutz (animal rights party) is doing well with about 1.2% of the vote.  Wonder if that hurt the Greens?

Probably, yes.

 Would it be fair to label the AFD, NPD and Alfa as the three most "right-wing" parties, on the migration issue at least?

Yes (edit: though Sozialliberal is obviously right about the caveats of doing so).

[DavidB.]

This was a very, very good exit poll.

[DavidB.]

The difference between FDP and NPD is now less than 150 votes.

[DavidB.]

Result (Zweitstimmen):
SPD 30.6
AfD 20.8
CDU 19.0
Linke 13.2
Grüne 4.8 (rip)
FDP 3.0 (eventually ended up larger than NPD)
NPD 3.0
Animals 1.2

Seats (total 71):
SPD 26 (-1)
AfD 18 (+18)
CDU 16 (-2)
Die Linke 11 (-3)

SPD and CDU have 42, a comfortable majority.

[DavidB.]

Anybody have the results for Rostock?

https://beta.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article157952565/Wahldebakel-ist-fuer-Merkel-peinlich-und-eine-Warnung.html

[DavidB.]

Seehofer tells Merkel to implement a cap of 200,000 refugees a year or the CSU won't support her (possible) re-election bid. http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/fluechtlinge-horst-seehofer-droht-angela-merkel-mit-endgueltigem-bruch-a-1112584.html

How many refugees did Germany take in last year, and how many have they taken in this year? Still seems like an incredibly large number to me.