German Elections & Politics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:00:20 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 52 53 54 55 56 [57] 58 59 60 61 62 ... 176
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655315 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1400 on: September 04, 2016, 11:18:35 AM »

Unexpectedly strong SPD showing, although somehow it's not surprising. Worst ever result for the Left/PDS and CDU.
Logged
Diouf
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,497
Denmark
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1401 on: September 04, 2016, 11:36:06 AM »

Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1402 on: September 04, 2016, 11:52:32 AM »

Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1403 on: September 04, 2016, 12:00:11 PM »

Well, the result could have been worse. I'm glad that the NPD won't be represented in any state parliament any longer.
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1404 on: September 04, 2016, 12:02:15 PM »

Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1405 on: September 04, 2016, 01:05:18 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 01:08:12 PM by Sozialliberal »

Greens under 5%! (That can still change, though.)
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1406 on: September 04, 2016, 01:07:15 PM »

If anybody ist interested in results as counted

http://service.mvnet.de/wahlen/2016_land/dateien/atlanten/ergebnisse.2016/landtagswahl.html
Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1407 on: September 04, 2016, 01:16:22 PM »

At least the FDP can now claim to be the sole establishment party to have increased its share of the vote.

Logged
Beezer
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,902


Political Matrix
E: 1.61, S: -2.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1408 on: September 04, 2016, 01:33:20 PM »

Greens now also below 5% according to ZDF

Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1409 on: September 04, 2016, 01:44:26 PM »

Greens now also below 5% according to ZDF


LMAO
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1410 on: September 04, 2016, 01:47:13 PM »

The Greens would need around 7 per cent of the votes (around one inf five) not counted. Not totally impossible as postal ballots are often counted last and the cities are undercounted until now, but it does not seem to likely and the rural areas undercounted by now seem to be a mixed bag.
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1411 on: September 04, 2016, 01:49:17 PM »


Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1412 on: September 04, 2016, 01:54:14 PM »

   If you combine the AFD, Alfa and NPD vote in the border districts these parties reached a combined mid 30% of the vote there.
Logged
Yeahsayyeah
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 787


Political Matrix
E: -9.25, S: -8.15

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1413 on: September 04, 2016, 01:54:44 PM »

Okay, with the last swath of votes it would now be almost 8 percent. It seems more and more likely the Greens are out.
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1414 on: September 04, 2016, 01:58:36 PM »

    I have this political fantasy that after enough times of just missing the 5% threshold in various German elections, the FDP and Greens will insist on threshold reform (a lower threshold, or the transferability of the vote perhaps) when they enter future government coalitions.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1415 on: September 04, 2016, 02:01:42 PM »

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1416 on: September 04, 2016, 02:02:40 PM »

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...

SPD-CDU are set to have a majority.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1417 on: September 04, 2016, 02:05:19 PM »

Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east?

Because it's Pomerania and it's always been that way inclined.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1418 on: September 04, 2016, 02:05:39 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 02:07:20 PM by DavidB. »

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...

SPD-CDU are set to have a majority.
You're of course right, forgot about the Erststimmen. A brief moment of stupidity. Still, I wonder what would have been the most likely scenario in the event that SPD + CDU = <50% of seats and Greens = below threshold. SPD-Die Linke with CDU outside support? SPD-CDU with Die Linke outside support? Or SPD-CDU-Die Linke because a coalition with Die Linke would seem warranted in the face of the "danger" that is AfD?
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1419 on: September 04, 2016, 02:07:16 PM »

   About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1420 on: September 04, 2016, 02:08:11 PM »

  About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.
Don't know if it's an ugly head. I don't mind sacrificing the Greens and the FDP if it means the Nazis don't get in.

(inb4 "the nazis did get in" Roll Eyes )
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1421 on: September 04, 2016, 02:17:11 PM »

   I just don't like the way thresholds distort  the overall proportional outcome of the vote, and wonder if there are voters who might have voted for smaller parties but don't because of fear of wasting their vote, thereby also distorting the outcome.  Poland in I believe 1993 was perhaps the worst case, with a huge amount of wasted votes, mostly going to right of center parties.
Logged
Sozialliberal
Rookie
**
Posts: 247
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1422 on: September 04, 2016, 02:20:10 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 02:22:33 PM by Sozialliberal »


Looking at the map of electoral districts its interesting that the AfD won in the four easternmost districts while the SPD won big everywhere else - especially in the western parts of the state. Any reason why the AfD would do so well in the far east? Could it be that being near the Polish border makes people more xenophobic?
I don't know, but one reason is definitely the higher unemployment rate in the eastern part of the state.

  If you combine the AFD, Alfa and NPD vote in the border districts these parties reached a combined mid 30% of the vote there.
Those parties are actually quite different.

Of which parties did the outgoing coalition consist? If SDP-CDU won't have a majority and the Greens don't reach the threshold things can get very tricky here...

SPD-CDU are set to have a majority.
You're of course right, forgot about the Erststimmen. A brief moment of stupidity. Still, I wonder what would have been the most likely scenario in the event that SPD + CDU = <50% of seats and Greens = below threshold. SPD-Die Linke with CDU outside support? SPD-CDU with Die Linke outside support? Or SPD-CDU-Die Linke because a coalition with Die Linke would seem warranted in the face of the "danger" that is AfD?
There's no way that the CDU would ever support an SPD-Left government! An SPD-CDU minority government with outside-support from The Left  or new elections would be likely.
Logged
Zinneke
JosepBroz
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1423 on: September 04, 2016, 02:22:25 PM »

  About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.
Don't know if it's an ugly head. I don't mind sacrificing the Greens and the FDP if it means the Nazis don't get in.

(inb4 "the nazis did get in" Roll Eyes )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordon_sanitaire#In_politics
Logged
rob in cal
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,978
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1424 on: September 04, 2016, 02:22:57 PM »

  Would it be fair to label the AFD, NPD and Alfa as the three most "right-wing" parties, on the migration issue at least?
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 52 53 54 55 56 [57] 58 59 60 61 62 ... 176  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 10 queries.