Australia 2022 Election

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Not sure on what basis you say ‘the Greens seem to have vanished’. They’re basically polling the same as they got last time, if anything maybe very slightly up.

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If we think back to 2019 the last poll before the election to give Labor more than 52% on the 2PP was conducted in early April, before the campaign period began. Labor's lead during the campaign was constant but narrow: it only required a small polling error for a different outcome and that is what occurred. With present polling there either needs to be a larger polling error or a narrowing of the polls and the same small error for the same outcome as last time. Neither of these things are impossible, but we should be rational about these things.

Quite - this is obviously a hostage to fortune, but it rather reminds me of 1997 in the UK. A big Labo(u)r lead which people don’t believe due to the shock of the previous election.

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Has anybody got an estimate of how many seats would have been won by Labor and the Coalition had they been the final contenders in every seat? I know the 2PP will come out eventually and answer this, but can guesses be made based on expected swing from last time, Senate results etc?

Labor would've won the 4 Green seats, Fowler in Sydney and Clark in Tasmania. Mayo would've been close, but I suspect Labor (they're currently ahead). All else likely Coalition, so 83/84 to 68/69.