French presidential election, 2022

[KaiserDave]

Zinneke, what about Poutou? What is your breakdown of him like you did the others.

[KaiserDave]

Petition to ban ElectionsGuy from the International Boards.

[KaiserDave]

What time EST tomorrow is the exit poll?

[KaiserDave]

My prediction:
Emmanuel Macron (LREM): 26.5%
Marine Le Pen (RN): 24.7%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon (LFI): 20.1%
Eric Zemmour (R!): 8.3%
Valérie Pécresse (LR): 6.7%

[KaiserDave]

A pleasure to read your analysis Antonio. Really it is. I agree with most of what you said, almost all. I have come to slightly different conclusions and have a ranking along these lines.

1. Hidalgo
2. Jadot
3. Poutou
4. Macron
5. Roussel
6. Melenchon
7. Dupont-Aignan
8. Arthaud
9. Pecresse
10. Lassalle
11. Le Pen
12. Zemmour

That said. You make an interesting case for Roussel>Macron, I was merely perturbed over Roussel's support for the PRC. I also think there is perhaps some merit for a first round Melenchon vote to stave off Panzergirl. But of course, you are French, and I am not! I appreciate your words of wisdom, and I share your angst over the French and Europe at large political situation. I hope things get better soon.

[KaiserDave]

Is the poll leaked to La Libre legitimate?

[KaiserDave]

An objectively awful result for France and the French left, very depressing. But it's great, great to see Le Pen bomb compared to the last minute expectations.

[KaiserDave]

28 Macron
 24 Le Pen

And 20 for Mélenchon which is quite the surge. Almost double from where he was 2 months ago.

A candidate with his platform but without the baggage and toxic personality would have at least pipped Le Pen for second, which is worth reflecting on.

This is very sad to think about.

[KaiserDave]

Perhaps if someone had Melenchon's campaign skill and Hamon's positions and demeanor, they would have made the 2nd round, and given us a real runoff based on economics. This is really upsetting actually.

[KaiserDave]

If it's any consolation, the combined left did alright.

[KaiserDave]

Perhaps if someone had Melenchon's campaign skill and Hamon's positions and demeanor, they would have made the 2nd round, and given us a real runoff based on economics. This is really upsetting actually.

Roussel on domestic policy, Hidalgo on foreign policy.

Something like that, and personable and not personally divisive. But...alas.

[KaiserDave]

This is a poor result for the French left and for the French workers. Melenchon, for all of his many flaws (he's an HP), would have challenged Macron on his ruthless neoliberalism with the usual Melenchon flare and campaign skill. Would have been fun to watch. I still would have preferred Macron to win do to foreign policy reasons that Antonio has so wisely elucidated, but it would have been better for France for a real debate on economics. Now we will get two weeks of immigrant bashing and endless debates on culture and national identity, while the real questions of the wealth gap, social conditions and stability, and working class livelihoods go unanswered. If there is any consolation, the combined left did alright.

Obviously, Macron has my full and unambiguous support in the 2nd round. Le Pen must lose, and I'm optimistic she will. Macron beat her quite handily in the first round.

[KaiserDave]

By good FP I mean he’s  the only president not to hate on America when we do stuff but then expect us to be a sugar daddy for them .

You're right. They should've paid their debt and sent French soldiers to die in Iraq. How dare they criticize us for starting a war based on lies?

Holy F nationalism is dumb

France and Germany literally tried to form an alliance with Russia in 2003 so it just wasn’t about sending troops . They were explicitly anti American at that point and treated us as we were the villains  guys in Iraq rather than Iraq just being a mistaken intervention

How is this even offensive. Not everyone has to be as jingoistic and apologetic as you.

We provide for their defense so at the very least they should refrain from hating us

France has the strongest army in Europe.

[KaiserDave]

Watching Melenchon’s projected score inch higher but knowing he won’t pass Le Pen is painful.

[KaiserDave]

Is it at all possible the exit poll is wrong and he passes Le Pen?

[KaiserDave]

Sounds like Macron picked her apart.

[KaiserDave]

Globalists everywhere freaking out

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1512064596915359764

[KaiserDave]

Anyway my actual thoughts are that this is a necessary disappointment. The victory of Macron over Le Pen is absolutely a good thing, but Macron is pretty bad, and his second term may even be worse, we'll see. But vote for the crook, it's important! And the crook wins!