HI 2014 Congressional Elections

[IceSpear]

Djou is stickin with HI-01.

Hopefully now pundits will stop rating HI-Sen Likely D.

Not that I'm a pundit, but I just moved it to Safe D.

[IceSpear]

Djou is stickin with HI-01.

Hopefully now pundits will stop rating HI-Sen Likely D.

Not that I'm a pundit, but I just moved it to Safe D.

Why wasn't it safe D in the first place?

Djou did very well in HI-01 in 2012 despite Obama's landslide in the state. Combine that with a very bloody primary and wounded Democratic nominee, and I could see a slight chance for Djou pulling it out. Sort of like Mississippi, which I have at likely R for now. If McDaniel wins the primary, the Democrats actually have a decent candidate.

[IceSpear]

Djou is stickin with HI-01.

Hopefully now pundits will stop rating HI-Sen Likely D.

Not that I'm a pundit, but I just moved it to Safe D.

Why wasn't it safe D in the first place?

Djou did very well in HI-01 in 2012 despite Obama's landslide in the state. Combine that with a very bloody primary and wounded Democratic nominee, and I could see a slight chance for Djou pulling it out. Sort of like Mississippi, which I have at likely R for now. If McDaniel wins the primary, the Democrats actually have a decent candidate.

Comparing Hanabusa or Schatz to a neo-Confederate Islamophobe who retweets white supremacists and Stormfront users is insulting. This seat never had a chance of going Republican.

It was an analogy. I'm not saying Hanabusa or Schatz were even weak candidates, just that Djou was a strong one. HI-01 is half the state, and he got 46% there against Hanabusa even during Obama's huge landslide, so is it really that implausible he could've kept the Senate race within single digits in a much more Republican friendly environment?

[IceSpear]

Not a fan of DINO Mercado Kim. Hopefully Takai can catch up to her.

[IceSpear]

Not a fan of DINO Mercado Kim. Hopefully Takai can catch up to her.

True Leftist

Well if I lived in Hawaii I'd still support her in the general, not write in Daniel Inouye.

[IceSpear]

Not a fan of DINO Mercado Kim. Hopefully Takai can catch up to her.

Same. Anti-gay, anti-public education, pro-Monsanto.

If it looks like a Republican, talks like a Republican, and acts like a Republican, then it's probably a Republican pretending to be a Democrat.

If Djou supports gay marriage he has my endorsement, bar a Green run.

To be fair, she doesn't look very much like a Republican.

IIRC, she even voted against civil unions. And attempted to water down the minimum wage increase (though it didn't work). It seems in deep blue states such as Hawaii and Rhode Island, Republicans tend to run as Democrats. Unfortunately, the opposite doesn't seem to be true.

[IceSpear]

It seems Hanabusa's campaign is entirely based on "Daniel Inouye wanted me to be senator, so you should vote for me"

You could just as easily say that Schatz's campaign is entirely based on "Neil Abercrombie wanted me to be a senator, plus muh incumbency, so you should vote for me."

At least Inouye is actually popular in the state. I support Schatz, but this has always been a pretty dumb line of attack. Hanabusa likely would've run regardless of whether or not Inouye wrote that letter, it's not like she's getting any younger.

[IceSpear]

It seems Hanabusa's campaign is entirely based on "Daniel Inouye wanted me to be senator, so you should vote for me"

You could just as easily say that Schatz's campaign is entirely based on "Neil Abercrombie wanted me to be a senator, plus muh incumbency, so you should vote for me."

At least Inouye is actually popular in the state. I support Schatz, but this has always been a pretty dumb line of attack. Hanabusa likely would've run regardless of whether or not Inouye wrote that letter, it's not like she's getting any younger.

Except that the question is "what does Hanabusa have that Schatz doesn't" it seems there are no ideological differences between the two and the election is split along racial and generational lines rather than policy or ideas

Yeah, there are little policy differences between them. If Schatz was an actual elected incumbent, it would seem silly to challenge him due to the lack of ideological disparity. But since he was appointed and has never won the seat in his own right, I see no reason why she should defer to him solely due to Abercrombie's wishes. It's not as though primaries between people who have 95%+ of things in common are rare, it's just that usually they're for open seats. I see this as essentially an open seat as well.

[IceSpear]

From the Civil Beat Senate poll that Tender posted, they also had a HI-01 poll.

Takai leads Kim 30-23, up from trailing her 30-24 in May.

Spectacular news! Too bad Hawaii polls are usually junk.

[IceSpear]

Oh crap, Hawaii has open primaries? I hope Saturday isn't a big victory for conservative "Democrats".

Oddly enough, one of the recent Hawaii polls actually showed Schatz doing better among Republicans than Democrats/Independents. Of course, since Hawaii polls are pretty bad, taking any meaning out of crosstabs from them is even more bad.

[IceSpear]

Looks like Colleen McDaniel was the best comparison for her after all.

Something tells me that she isn't McDaniel's type...

[IceSpear]

Looks like Colleen McDaniel was the best comparison for her after all.

Something tells me that she isn't McDaniel's type...

You mean because she's a minority?

Yes.

[IceSpear]

Colleen Hanabusa isn't challenge the results, after all... your move, Chris McDaniel.

Good, now I don't have to lose all respect for her.

Hopefully she does a good job chairing Hillary's 2016 Hawaii campaign.

[IceSpear]

Colleen Hanabusa isn't challenge the results, after all... your move, Chris McDaniel.

Good, now I don't have to lose all respect for her.

Hopefully she does a good job chairing Hillary's 2016 Hawaii campaign.

Why would a Democrat need to campaign in Hawaii

They don't, but she'll probably still have a campaign chair there.