I am not doubting Trump has cratered in the NYC suburbs. I didn't even think that was worth mentioning. This is the reason why his chances in PA and FL are not looking good. His lackluster performance in upstate indicates MI likely flips and OH is a tossup. Of course a lot can change but that is where we are right now.
If we can extrapolate any information from the regional breakdowns of this poll, it would be that polling in 2016 was difficult because, even until election day, there were still a significant number of voters who weren't committed to either major candidate. In this poll, only 5% in NYC, 5% in NYC Suburbs, and 7% Upstate were uncommitted to either candidate; in 2016, those numbers were 13% in NYC, 10% in NYC Suburbs, and 21% Upstate.
Biden is already consolidating the anti-Trump vote far better than Clinton did and Trump has far less undecided voters to rely upon to expand his support. If these patterns repeat nationally, then we could have a very interesting map on election night. Trump's vote share could hold throughout the Rust Belt, but Biden could still win states like MI, PA, and WI with comfortable margins simply by consolidating the anti-Trump vote.
My theory is that Biden being out of the picture helps a lot. The less exposure politicians seem to have to the media, the better their polls often are, like when Hillary Clinton’s popularity spike when she left the State Department
