NY- Siena: Biden 65 Trump 29

[Landslide Lyndon]

The poll is more interesting for the crosstabs than the topline. Biden doesn't seem to have any problem either with Latinos (80-12) or young voters (66-29).
A margin this lopsided also probably means that besides Brindisi the rest of the Democratic congressional delegation is safe and they could very well pick up King's seat.

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/SNY0420-Crosstabs.pdf

[wbrocks67]

The "young" and "hispanic" narratives have been pretty omnipresent, despite the fact that there is just as many polls where it *isn't* a problem for him

[wbrocks67]

This poll is also not shocking in the slightest - I'm sure NY is probably overtly affected by Trump's handling of the virus considering what they've been thru.

[Bidenworth2020]

Thats an 11 point swing from their last poll a few weeks ago...

[Skye]

Wow, he was this poll is awful for Trump. He might even underperform Romney.

Question: Does anybody know what Siena considers the "Suburbs" region? Is it Downstate NY minus NYC (Hudson Valley + Long Island)?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, hopefully Trump performs like Romney or below in every state

[Devils30]

Wonder if this is a complete collapse for Trump on Staten, Long Island. Beyond the House it has little impact except for the fact that these problems can creep up in other areas too. Places with a lot of NY transplants in South Florida becoming a problem for GOP is plausible.

[OneJ]

Biden is winning 33% of those who consider themselves to be conservative and 23% of Republicans in this poll.

[Eraserhead]

Biden is winning 33% of those who consider themselves to be conservative and 23% of Republicans in this poll.

Yeah, I do not see that happening at all.

[wbrocks67]

Biden is winning 33% of those who consider themselves to be conservative and 23% of Republicans in this poll.

Yeah, I do not see that happening at all.

NY has been the worst hit from the virus. Trump's response has been awful. I don't know if it will be that high, but it's not impossible given that combination

[Sbane]

Those upstate numbers look very promising for Biden. A lot of his surge in the last few weeks seems to be coming from the midwest and the east coast.

[JA]

Those upstate numbers look very promising for Biden. A lot of his surge in the last few weeks seems to be coming from the midwest and the east coast.

In the last NY-Siena poll of 2016, the regional crosstabs were:

New York City: 67% (D) - 20% (R)
NYC Suburbs: 45% (D) - 45% (R)
Upstate: 42% (D) - 37% (R)

The crosstabs from this poll are:

New York City: 78% (D) - 17% (R)
NYC Suburbs: 59% (D) - 36% (R)
Upstate: 54% (D) - 39% (R)

That represents a change of:

New York City: -14% R
NYC Suburbs: -23% R
Upstate: -10% R

Based on these polls, it would seem that, while Trump is hemorrhaging support throughout New York, it's in the suburbs where Trump's collapse is most severe. A change in New York City's heavily populated suburbs of such a significant amount, plummeting from a 45-45 tie in November 2016 to a 59-36 preference for Biden, could be a sign of nationwide intensification of trends that disfavor Trump and the GOP long-term.

Also, it's interesting to note that the primary driving force behind Biden's particularly strong numbers is a greater consolidation of the anti-Trump vote behind Biden than Clinton. Trump's support changed -3% in NYC, -9% in the NYC Suburbs, and +2% in Upstate New York. Meanwhile, Biden has increased support over Clinton in all three regions; +11% in NYC, +14% in the NYC Suburbs, and +12% Upstate.

[Sbane]

I am not doubting Trump has cratered in the NYC suburbs. I didn't even think that was worth mentioning.  This is the reason why his chances in PA and FL are not looking good. His lackluster performance in upstate indicates MI likely flips and OH is a tossup. Of course a lot can change but that is where we are right now.

[AGA]

I don't understand how they are tied in NYC suburbs, no matter what counties they include as the suburbs.

[OneJ]

I don't understand how they are tied in NYC suburbs, no matter what counties they include as the suburbs.

That was from the 2016 poll between Clinton and Trump. This poll is showing a 59-36 split in Biden's favor.

[JA]

I am not doubting Trump has cratered in the NYC suburbs. I didn't even think that was worth mentioning.  This is the reason why his chances in PA and FL are not looking good. His lackluster performance in upstate indicates MI likely flips and OH is a tossup. Of course a lot can change but that is where we are right now.

If we can extrapolate any information from the regional breakdowns of this poll, it would be that polling in 2016 was difficult because, even until election day, there were still a significant number of voters who weren't committed to either major candidate. In this poll, only 5% in NYC, 5% in NYC Suburbs, and 7% Upstate were uncommitted to either candidate; in 2016, those numbers were 13% in NYC, 10% in NYC Suburbs, and 21% Upstate.

Biden is already consolidating the anti-Trump vote far better than Clinton did and Trump has far less undecided voters to rely upon to expand his support. If these patterns repeat nationally, then we could have a very interesting map on election night. Trump's vote share could hold throughout the Rust Belt, but Biden could still win states like MI, PA, and WI with comfortable margins simply by consolidating the anti-Trump vote.

[pbrower2a]

It's hard to believe that an even shift could apply as well in New York State to the extent that one sees in Iowa, Ohio, or Texas when every bit of logic suggests that Republicans bottomed out in states usually ultra-safe D... but it can happen. This seems to be applying in states as dissimilar as Kansas and Louisiana on the other side of the political spectrum and in states that were close in 2016.

Collapses happen, although we have seen nothing like this involving and incumbent since at least the elder Bush (OK, Americans got tired of a spent Reagan agenda, but that took twelve years); Trump is still fresh in the sense that pig-droppings can reek in their 'freshness'. Trump isn't stale after four years; he is offensive.  The analogue is beginning to look like Carter in 1980 except that Jimmy Carter is as decent a person as Trump is dreadful. Carter was simply unlucky in many ways, and Trump got away with much until the stock market went into the tank and COVID-19 struck.

OK, New York is the state most hurt by COVID-19.

[SnowLabrador]

Depending on how high turnout is in California, New York, Illinois, and my own home state of Massachusetts, Trump could potentially lose the popular vote by a good 6-7 points and still win the Electoral College.

[Devils30]

NY-1 and 2 could be very interesting races this year. Wonder if this dashes any chances for Rs to defeat Rose in NY-11

[GeorgiaModerate]

Depending on how high turnout is in California, New York, Illinois, and my own home state of Massachusetts, Trump could potentially lose the popular vote by a good 6-7 points and still win the Electoral College.

We've had this discussion before.  That's extraordinarily unlikely.  If you can model it happening, show your work (or please stop making the assertion).

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Wonder if this is a complete collapse for Trump on Staten, Long Island. Beyond the House it has little impact except for the fact that these problems can creep up in other areas too. Places with a lot of NY transplants in South Florida becoming a problem for GOP is plausible.

Anytime a Democrat does well in NY/NJ they do very well in Florida. Al Gore did very well in Florida in 2000 because he dominated in the Tri State area in NJ/NY/CT and Northeastern suburbs in general. Gun control was a huge issue in 2000 and Al Gore dominated Bush in the suburban NE and Southern Florida because of that issue.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

👁👄👁

[kph14]

I am not doubting Trump has cratered in the NYC suburbs. I didn't even think that was worth mentioning.  This is the reason why his chances in PA and FL are not looking good. His lackluster performance in upstate indicates MI likely flips and OH is a tossup. Of course a lot can change but that is where we are right now.

Democrats in 2018 really outperformed in the NYC suburbs (NY-11, Cuomo winning Staten Island and Suffolk). Nassau County was won by at least 13 points across the board

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I am not doubting Trump has cratered in the NYC suburbs. I didn't even think that was worth mentioning.  This is the reason why his chances in PA and FL are not looking good. His lackluster performance in upstate indicates MI likely flips and OH is a tossup. Of course a lot can change but that is where we are right now.

If we can extrapolate any information from the regional breakdowns of this poll, it would be that polling in 2016 was difficult because, even until election day, there were still a significant number of voters who weren't committed to either major candidate. In this poll, only 5% in NYC, 5% in NYC Suburbs, and 7% Upstate were uncommitted to either candidate; in 2016, those numbers were 13% in NYC, 10% in NYC Suburbs, and 21% Upstate.

Biden is already consolidating the anti-Trump vote far better than Clinton did and Trump has far less undecided voters to rely upon to expand his support. If these patterns repeat nationally, then we could have a very interesting map on election night. Trump's vote share could hold throughout the Rust Belt, but Biden could still win states like MI, PA, and WI with comfortable margins simply by consolidating the anti-Trump vote.

My theory is that Biden being out of the picture helps a lot. The less exposure politicians seem to have to the media, the better their polls often are, like when Hillary Clinton’s popularity spike when she left the State Department

[Tekken_Guy]

Depending on how high turnout is in California, New York, Illinois, and my own home state of Massachusetts, Trump could potentially lose the popular vote by a good 6-7 points and still win the Electoral College.

If turnout is that high, then we’re probably seeing similar patterns around Philly, Detroit, Madison, Miami, Phoenix, etc.