Rothenberg Senate Rankings

[Stranger in a strange land]

2010 will win for republicans i think because obamas approval rating falling recently and the economy will be a topissue and democrats cant handle the economy well as we have seen so far in obamas term at least thats what i think

Punctuation is your friend.

[SPC]

Funny how vulnerable the Democrats have gotten in the last nine months. Back then, all the vulnerable seats were Republicans. Now the Democrats have to defend Connecticut, Nevada, Illinois, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Arkansas.

[tmthforu94]

I disagree with a few of their projections...

1. Based off polls, PA is a toss-up. Personally, I think Toomey will end up winning, as it looks like the primary will be extremely close, and some of the loser's supporters could vote for Toomey as a "protest vote".
2. Polls have shown that both Colorado and Nevada are both toss-ups. If anything, I would give Nevada "Lean-Takeover" for now. One Republican is beating Reid by double-digits, and his approval ratings are in the tank.
3. Gillibrand isn't safe. I'd give her a lean-advantage, but she isn't safe.

[SPC]

I'm rooting for Sestak, just to make Specter look as idiotic as possible.

[ChrisJG777]

I'm rooting for Sestak, just to make Specter look as idiotic as possible.

That won't be difficult. 

[SPC]

I'm rooting for Sestak, just to make Specter look as idiotic as possible.

That won't be difficult. 

I figure that a primary defeat would be a much more embarassing way to end his career than a general election defeat. Toomey beating Specter could just be written off as a product of the national environment. Specter would have no excuse for Sestak beating him, especiall when he switched parties to avoid a primary.

[ChrisJG777]

I'm rooting for Sestak, just to make Specter look as idiotic as possible.

That won't be difficult. 

I figure that a primary defeat would be a much more embarassing way to end his career than a general election defeat. Toomey beating Specter could just be written off as a product of the national environment. Specter would have no excuse for Sestak beating him, especiall when he switched parties to avoid a primary.

One thing I'll say is that I preferred Specter as a Republican and I would rather have seen him become and independent that defect to the Democrats quite honestly, and right now if Specter gets defeated in the Democratic Primary, I will laugh.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sestak will win the primary and beat Toomey.  Toomey is too conservative to win in a blue collar state like PA.

[Nym90]

Lean Takeover (0 R, 1 D)

    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 3 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Reid (D-NV)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 3 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA) #
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)

Currently Safe (10 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)
    * MA Open (Kirk, D)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

My take is no clear favorite for CO, IL, De, KY, MO, NH, OH, and CT.  Narrow advantage to Specter, Reid, and Lincoln. Clear advantage to Vitter, Burr and FL open.

[DownWithTheLeft]

When Hoeven jumps in does ND jump to tossover or lean takeover?

[Vepres]

It's funny both Senate leaders are in trouble.

[Lunar]

When Hoeven jumps in does ND jump to tossover or lean takeover?

I think it's tossover, the polling has shown Dorgan still leading against Hoeven, who hasn't shown any real interest in the seat, so yeah, tossover

[SPC]

It's funny both Senate leaders are in trouble.

McConnell was re-elected last year.

[tmthforu94]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

Pataki was the only Republican who could have taken her down, and he's out.

[Devilman88]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

Pataki was the only Republican who could have taken her down, and he's out.

No, Rudy can take her out..

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

Pataki was the only Republican who could have taken her down, and he's out.

No, Rudy can take her out..

LOL!

The only thing Rudy can take out is the garbage.

[Lunar]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

Pataki was the only Republican who could have taken her down, and he's out.

No, Rudy can take her out..

he's only interested in being an executive, not to mention his fierce partisanship displayed in the 2008 elections making him severely damaged goods for a federal race in NY

[Ogre Mage]

The real danger for Gillibrand was a top-tier challenger in the Democratic Primary, such as Israel or Maloney.  But they seem to have been encouraged to withdraw.  In New York, the general election is much less of a problem.  Pataki and Giuliani have various problems and baggage and I suspect any competitiveness they show in the polls is primarily due to name recognition.  Once they have to start taking stances on issues (there's no running away from the abortion question in a Senate race) their standing will sink.  Remember, a senate race is a much more partisan affair than a governor's race.

My concern for Gillibrand is if Paterson is on the general election ticket, which could be disastrous for all Dems.

[nhmagic]

Is Gillibrand really safe? Her approval ratings aren't too hot...

Pataki was the only Republican who could have taken her down, and he's out.

Pataki's running for Vice President.

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 1 D)

    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Dodd (D-CT)
    * Reid (D-NV)
    * Specter (D-PA) *

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)

Currently Safe (10 R, 12 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Dorgan (D-ND)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)
    * MA Open (Kirk, D)

[Nym90]

#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans



Lean Takeover (0 R, 2 D)

ND Open (Dorgan, D) *
DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 5 D)

KY Open (Bunning, R)
MO Open (Bond, R)
NH Open (Gregg, R)
OH Open (Voinovich, R)
IL Open (Burris, D)
Bennet (D-CO) *
Lincoln (D-AR) *
Reid (D-NV)
Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

Burr (R-NC)
Vitter (R-LA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 1 D)

Grassley (R-IA)
FL Open (LeMieux, R)
CT Open (Dodd, D) #

Currently Safe (10 R, 11 D)

Bennett (R-UT)
Coburn (R-OK)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Isakson (R-GA)
McCain (R-AZ)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
KS Open (Brownback, R)
Bayh (D-IN)
Boxer (D-CA)
Feingold (D-WI)
Gillibrand (D-NY)
Inouye (D-HI)
Leahy (D-VT)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murray (D-WA)
Schumer (D-NY)
Wyden (D-OR)
MA Open (Kirk, D)

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 3 D)

    * Reid (D-NV) *
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 0 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 2 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)
    * MA Open (Kirk, D) *

Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)

[Nym90]

Here are our latest Senate ratings.
#- Moved benefiting Democrats
*- Moved benefiting Republicans

Lean Takeover (0 R, 3 D)

    * Reid (D-NV)
    * ND Open (Dorgan, D)
    * DE Open (Kaufman, D)

Toss-Up (4 R, 4 D)

    * KY Open (Bunning, R)
    * MO Open (Bond, R)
    * NH Open (Gregg, R)
    * OH Open (Voinovich, R)
    * IL Open (Burris, D)
    * Bennet (D-CO)
    * Lincoln (D-AR)
    * Specter (D-PA)

Narrow Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R, 1 D)

    * Burr (R-NC)
    * Vitter (R-LA)
    * MA Open (Kirk, D) *

Clear Advantage for Incumbent Party (2 R,1 D)

    * Grassley (R-IA)
    * FL Open (LeMieux, R)
    * CT Open (Dodd, D)

Currently Safe (10 R, 10 D)

    * Bennett (R-UT)
    * Coburn (R-OK)
    * Crapo (R-ID)
    * DeMint (R-SC)
    * Isakson (R-GA)
    * McCain (R-AZ)
    * Murkowski (R-AK)
    * Shelby (R-AL)
    * Thune (R-SD)
    * KS Open (Brownback, R)
    * Bayh (D-IN)
    * Boxer (D-CA)
    * Feingold (D-WI)
    * Gillibrand (D-NY)
    * Inouye (D-HI)
    * Leahy (D-VT)
    * Mikulski (D-MD)
    * Murray (D-WA)
    * Schumer (D-NY)
    * Wyden (D-OR)