Prediction: MS Gov. Primary Tues.

[gespb19]

I voted this morning.

I think Reeves will avoid a runoff but it’ll be close.  Something like 53-38-9.  Reeves will run strong in South MS, Rankin Co and Tupelo/NE.  Waller will do better in Hinds/Madison, the Delta and College Counties.  AG primary seems very unpredictable too.  I’ll predict wins for McRae, Watson as well (sadly).  

Hood could fall into a runoff but his name recognition + high Democratic balloting by North MS whites should get him >55%.

Why did you expect Waller to do well in Hinds/Madison but not Rankin?

Reeves is from Rankin, and it is generally considered the most “conservative” of the Metro Jackson counties.  

Waller winning it is the story of the night (thus far).  

I prefer the term “new money.”

[gespb19]

Deborah Dawkins got primaried. As did Jeff Smith.

Sounds like Dawkins opponent was AA and she didn’t campaign much.

[gespb19]

Not a lot of precinct results out but Waller carried NE JXN with like 80% of the vote.

In Forrest, Waller did well in Hattiesburg but did poorly in Petal + rural areas.

[gespb19]

Just messing around with some numbers in my head...

Waller's base is more motivated, so he get's 70% of his August 6 vote in the runoff.

Reeves' base is more marginal and he relied more on name recognition on August 6, so let's say he gets 55% of his August 6 turnoff.

40% of Foster's August 6 voters turn-out again for the runoff, and let's be generous and assume they break 60-40 for Waller.

Results:

Tate Reeves:  111,268 votes (51.9%)
Bill Waller: 103,240 votes (48.1%)

This is probably Waller's best case scenario.

I think you're vastly underestimating turnout. In your scenario, turnout drops about 45%. I think it decreases by about 10-12%.

Waller's path, which is obviously a longshot, is 1) 100% of his voters show back up, 2) 80% of Reeves show back up, 3) 100% of Foster voters show back up and break 2-1 for Waller. That gets Waller to 50.1% and a win under 1,000 voters.



Of course, this gives you absurd results like Waller nearly winning DeSoto and Tate after doing very poorly there on 8/6. But it'll take something like that happening for him to win. That or massively overperforming there in Jackson (75% in Hinds/Madison, 60% in Rankin).

[gespb19]

56-44 Reeves.

[gespb19]

Reeves winning precincts that Taggart is winning doesn't bode well for Waller.

[gespb19]

[gespb19]

Reeves was also endorsed by a ton of mayors on the Gulf Coast.

That area isn't as educated as you'd think. Same with DeSoto. Lot of OOS people there by Mississippi standards. Part of Waller's appeal is his family's history within the state. That isn't as big of a deal to people that aren't from here.