2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Missouri

[ProgressiveModerate]

First off, isn’t using the old lines illegal and secondly isn’t that a bad deal for the GOP since like most redrawn MO-02 config on most any fair map that respects VRA gets redder.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1524876393468682240

When the number of representatives
to which the state is entitled in the House of the Congress of the United States under
the census of 1950 and each census thereafter is certified to the governor, the general
assembly shall by law divide the state into districts corresponding with the number of
representatives to which it is entitled, which districts shall be composed of contiguous
territory as compact and as nearly equal in population as may be

By the way Democrats could try their luck at a lawsuit.

[Storr]

Well then.

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1524925406301806592?s=20&t=nnSb3Y-fpel...

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1524924989308272646?s=20&t=nnSb3Y-fpel...

[lfromnj]

Waiting for the Parson veto because that is what this cycle in Missouri deserves.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1524929474520817671

Glad this mess is finally over.

Fr though the way they treated STL suburbs only to make Mo-02 Trump + 8 is p ergregious. Still think they’re favored to hold it for the decade but one more potential problem.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/jrosenbaum/status/1524876393468682240

When the number of representatives
to which the state is entitled in the House of the Congress of the United States under
the census of 1950 and each census thereafter is certified to the governor, the general
assembly shall by law divide the state into districts corresponding with the number of
representatives to which it is entitled, which districts shall be composed of contiguous
territory as compact and as nearly equal in population as may be

By the way Democrats could try their luck at a lawsuit.

Historically the compactness lawsuits haven't gone anywhere, but maybe this is the year.

Considering how by and large courts have been pretty aggressive in intervening this cycle and the fact that MO’s previous maps were less ergregious, it would be worth a go, at least when it comes to MO-03 as it’s not compact at all and redrawing it would likely help Dems out a bit in MO-02. It honestly seems like every decade the MO map gets slightly worse and I wonder if this is the breaking point because it sure ought to be getting close to it. Even looking at the current MO-05 is a breath of fresh air compared to the new MO-03.

I doubt the map would be fully overturned and redrawn by a court though, prolly just a forced redraw of MO-02 and 3, possibly just redrawn back into a cleaner gerrymander if given to the legistalture (and possibly a more effective one)

Also still weird to think about how this iteration of MO-02 still swing 9 points left in 2020 Pres. For some reason I keep thinking it’d be less. We’ll see how strong this continues (if at all)

[MarkD]

I've been looking at HB2909, but it describes the precincts and the census blocks that are in each district, for divided counties; it doesn't have raw population data. I'd like to know what percentage of St. Charles County is in MO-2 and MO-3 respectively. In the last map, as drawn ten years ago, about 37.5% of STCC was in MO-2 and about 62.5% in MO-3, but just eyeballing the new map, it's pretty clearly going to be much more of STCC in MO-3 and much less of it in MO-2. It looks as if it may be about 75% to 25% ratio in this map. It's also interesting to see them divide Warren County by following exactly along I-70, which leaves Foristell, Wright City, and Warrenton all divided between the two congressional districts. I have figured out that 30.09% of Jefferson County is in MO-3 compared to 69.91% in MO-8.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/Missouri_Mapper/status/1524929474520817671

Hallelujer

[ProgressiveModerate]

One question is why did the GOP really feel the need to basically cede the bluest possible MO-05 to Dems? Like even a Biden + 10 district could easily be drawn at no ones expense and could fall for Dems in the wrong end and at least force them to stay on their tails. It's not like this new MO-05 is going to be at a significant risk of election a lighting rod like Cori Bush.

Also another underdiscussed fact is that the new MO-03 is basically 50% suburban which could be interesting in primaries though likely won't become seriouswly contested in the GE at any point this decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One question is why did the GOP really feel the need to basically cede the bluest possible MO-05 to Dems? Like even a Biden + 10 district could easily be drawn at no ones expense and could fall for Dems in the wrong end and at least force them to stay on their tails. It's not like this new MO-05 is going to be at a significant risk of election a lighting rod like Cori Bush.

My guess is that they simply didn't care about the partisanship of the new MO-05.

[Sol]

If you aren't going to crack MO-05 you might as well minimize the Republican votes wasted in case someone in the surrounding seats screws up.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EmilyManleyTV/status/1526975742160121864?cxt=HHwWkMC9wZyW9LA...

Please veto.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EmilyManleyTV/status/1527026650810040320?cxt=HHwWgICywb-pi7E...

It's over.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/EmilyManleyTV/status/1527026650810040320?cxt=HHwWgICywb-pi7E...

It's over.

Until someone sues and it starts over

[Sol]

Is this a reasonably good map of Kansas City, or should I try to keep MO-05 more in Jackson and maybe Clay?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is this a reasonably good map of Kansas City, or should I try to keep MO-05 more in Jackson and maybe Clay?

I like how well it follows municipal lines but personally I just wouldn't go into Platte and instead grab Lee's Summit.

The issue with MO-05 is you always have to choose to leave a suburb out, so I just give Clay and Jackson counties priority

[Sol]

Is this better?

Two followups:
-Is it ok to put Hannibal in the 3rd? I had to do this to relieve excess population from the 6th.
-Is it worth it to try putting Cass in the 6th?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Is this better?

Two followups:
-Is it ok to put Hannibal in the 3rd? I had to do this to relieve excess population from the 6th.
-Is it worth it to try putting Cass in the 6th?

Yep, basically how I would draw MO-05 on a fair map.

Yeah Hannibal in the 3rd should be ok, though could I see your overall map?

[Sol]

Sure, here you go.

[Hope For A New Era]

-Is it ok to put Hannibal in the 3rd? I had to do this to relieve excess population from the 6th.

yes
not ideal, but okay

-Is it worth it to try putting Cass in the 6th?

no
there's a strangely large cultural difference, actually

[Sol]

For the sake of transparency, here are the two maps I've been debating:

Option 1


Option 2

[MarkD]

For the sake of transparency, here are the two maps I've been debating:

Option 1


Option 2

In both of these iterations, you are putting Luetkemeyer's Miller County home just outside of MO-3. That doesn't prevent him from running again in MO-3, but it does mean he couldn't vote for himself unless he moves to a new home somewhere in your versions of MO-3.
Also, that's a pretty tiny little dot of St. Charles County you've got in  MO-2. Isn't that just an uninhabited piece of the Missouri River floodplain?

[Sol]

In both of these iterations, you are putting Luetkemeyer's Miller County home just outside of MO-3. That doesn't prevent him from running again in MO-3, but it does mean he couldn't vote for himself unless he moves to a new home somewhere in your versions of MO-3.

For context, I'm trying to draw fair and logical maps which don't take into account incumbents.

Also, that's a pretty tiny little dot of St. Charles County you've got in  MO-2. Isn't that just an uninhabited piece of the Missouri River floodplain?

It's about 6,200 people in unincorporated St. Charles; not much at all but necessary to lower population deviation. Looking at it now, it might be wiser to put Pacific in MO-02 instead.

[Torie]

I am not sure what you guys are doing, and why, but I think MO pretty much draws itself.

[Sol]

I am not sure what you guys are doing, and why, but I think MO pretty much draws itself.

Tbh the main points of differentiation between are maps are basically just my CoI prioritization (which is why Washington stays in my 6th and why I split both Clay and Jackson) and then what looks like you preferring smaller county cuts, which I suppose is fair. Though I don't feel too bad about my splits because they're mostly fairly small or follow county-internal cleavages.