PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[wbrocks67]

and it appears this is backfiring on those trying to make this about Fettermans health

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1580548036299616259

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

and it appears this is backfiring on those trying to make this about Fettermans health

https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1580548036299616259

Alls well ends well.

[Person Man]

The race gives a lot of us "Troubled Young Boys" on Atlas "skin in the game". The more this goes on, the more Dr.Oz and his surrogates look like Krieger from Archer, or Dr. Zoidberg, or Mengele, Asperger, or Frankenstein.

[wbrocks67]

Associated Press: NBC reporter’s comment about Fetterman draws criticism

https://apnews.com/article/business-elections-pennsylvania-mehmet-oz-government-and-politics-48afac99cf9020bf8db3885dac5052dd

Not a good look.

[HidingCommentary]

Associated Press: NBC reporter’s comment about Fetterman draws criticism

https://apnews.com/article/business-elections-pennsylvania-mehmet-oz-government-and-politics-48afac99cf9020bf8db3885dac5052dd

Not a good look.

I think the trouble was the way she framed it. She made is sound like Fetterman was having a sundowning moment.

[kwabbit]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

[Senator Incitatus]

“News reporting draws criticism” is one of my favorite euphemisms for an editorial disguised as news reporting. Another good one is “experts say.”

[HidingCommentary]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me". 

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

[wbrocks67]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me".  

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

And at this rate, with only 26 days to go, it's unclear if we'll get multiple more PA polls from each outlet. I would say that we'd be lucky to get one more poll from each one between now and Election Day. Many are overdue, though, like Muhlenberg, Fox, IA, while I suspect we'll get at least one more Suffolk & F&M before the end.

I'm surprised Civiqs hasn't released any. I've been polled many times for PA with them. Guess they've all been private polls.

[kwabbit]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me". 

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

Maybe if Trafalgar has another good cycle, it’s time for pollsters to try their methods. Not the skewing towards Republicans part, but their method of selecting a pool of potential respondents and putting in more effort per potential respondent. They conduct a lot of polls so it must be a cheaper method than hiring a call center and having them do random digit dialing.

[kwabbit]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me". 

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

And at this rate, with only 26 days to go, it's unclear if we'll get multiple more PA polls from each outlet. I would say that we'd be lucky to get one more poll from each one between now and Election Day. Many are overdue, though, like Muhlenberg, Fox, IA, while I suspect we'll get at least one more Fox & F&M before the end.

I'm surprised Civiqs hasn't released any. I've been polled many times for PA with them. Guess they've all been private polls.

Is Civiqs online? How did they connect with you?

[wbrocks67]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me". 

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

Maybe if Trafalgar has another good cycle, it’s time for pollsters to try their methods. Not the skewing towards Republicans part, but their method of selecting a pool of potential respondents and putting in more effort per potential respondent. They conduct a lot of polls so it must be a cheaper method than hiring a call center and having them do random digit dialing.

The one thing I'll give them props on is the tiny surveys. Just ask a few questions and be done with it. I'm not surprised that rates are low when you're asking people 20-question surveys.

[wbrocks67]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me". 

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

And at this rate, with only 26 days to go, it's unclear if we'll get multiple more PA polls from each outlet. I would say that we'd be lucky to get one more poll from each one between now and Election Day. Many are overdue, though, like Muhlenberg, Fox, IA, while I suspect we'll get at least one more Fox & F&M before the end.

I'm surprised Civiqs hasn't released any. I've been polled many times for PA with them. Guess they've all been private polls.

Is Civiqs online? How did they connect with you?

Yeah, you sign up and tell them where you're from and all your info, and then they e-mail you occasionally with new polls. I've must've answered at least 10-15 PA polls for them since the summer. The questions usually are pretty generic, so it never seems like it's coming from one side or another, so that's why I figured they may be using them for their general poll releases. Or maybe they have a tracker that is private.

I'm not sure how they verify you are who you say you are, however. But I do know you can't take them twice because I tried out of curiosity lol.

[wbrocks67]

I just *know* that Trafalgar is going to drop its next one this week with Oz in the lead. I can feel it lol. Would be very surprised if they still have Fetterman leading.

[kwabbit]

There’s been 7 GA polls and 5 AZ polls since the last PA poll. Feels whiny to complain, but this is the tipping point race and it feels like it should be the most heavily polled.

To be honest, I'm finding following polling to be more and more frustrating the last few years. Instead of getting flooded with data points to dissect like we did just a few years ago, we are now only getting a few polls a week, some of which are suspect and discussion devolves into "what my gut tells me". 

I know pollsters are scared after the last few cycles and polling is expensive, but this is getting sad.

And at this rate, with only 26 days to go, it's unclear if we'll get multiple more PA polls from each outlet. I would say that we'd be lucky to get one more poll from each one between now and Election Day. Many are overdue, though, like Muhlenberg, Fox, IA, while I suspect we'll get at least one more Fox & F&M before the end.

I'm surprised Civiqs hasn't released any. I've been polled many times for PA with them. Guess they've all been private polls.

Is Civiqs online? How did they connect with you?

Yeah, you sign up and tell them where you're from and all your info, and then they e-mail you occasionally with new polls. I've must've answered at least 10-15 PA polls for them since the summer. The questions usually are pretty generic, so it never seems like it's coming from one side or another, so that's why I figured they may be using them for their general poll releases. Or maybe they have a tracker that is private.

I'm not sure how they verify you are who you say you are, however. But I do know you can't take them twice because I tried out of curiosity lol.

Sounds like they have a tracking poll then, probably for Oz. Civiqs is R affiliated IIRC, but I don’t think most campaigns want a push poll so they conduct it fairly.

[Person Man]

I just *know* that Trafalgar is going to drop its next one this week with Oz in the lead. I can feel it lol. Would be very surprised if they still have Fetterman leading.

You mean the frozen pizza guy? You know, Red Barron? That’s really the Trafalgar guy!

[wbrocks67]

An old clip that just got unearthed, but still, a bad one considering his tweet earlier today lol

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1580596500727332870

[Nyvin]

Sounds like they have a tracking poll then, probably for Oz. Civiqs is R affiliated IIRC, but I don’t think most campaigns want a push poll so they conduct it fairly.

Civiqs was founded by Daily Kos and is under the same general management as Daily Kos is today, it's definitely not R affiliated.

[Person Man]

An old clip that just got unearthed, but still, a bad one considering his tweet earlier today lol

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1580596500727332870

He tortures puppies and wants people to eat bugs and live in tubes. And the Red Baron will report that the people say “we know he is a mad scientist and a professional liar, but we’re still voting for him!”

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Trashfalgar is going to drop a new one sometime this week that will almost certainly have Shapiro +1/2 and Oz +1/2

[kwabbit]

Trashfalgar is going to drop a new one sometime this week that will almost certainly have Shapiro +1/2 and Oz +1/2

I’m thinking Oz +2 and Shapiro +6. They gotta maintain some plausible deniability in swing states. They’ve had some big ticket splitting as well in previous polls.

[wbrocks67]

Trashfalgar is going to drop a new one sometime this week that will almost certainly have Shapiro +1/2 and Oz +1/2

I’m thinking Oz +2 and Shapiro +6. They gotta maintain some plausible deniability in swing states. They’ve had some big ticket splitting as well in previous polls.

Yep, if they end up having Oz up they will definitely try and counter it with Shapiro higher to seem more "reasonable"

[Nyvin]

According to Trafalgar, everything in the country is between X+1 and X+3

[GALeftist]

“News reporting draws criticism” is one of my favorite euphemisms for an editorial disguised as news reporting. Another good one is “experts say.”

As I said earlier, differentiating auditory processing issues from general intelligence is both important and relevant here and not common knowledge. Shame WaPo had to pick up NBC's slack, but better late than never.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Trashfalgar is going to drop a new one sometime this week that will almost certainly have Shapiro +1/2 and Oz +1/2

I’m thinking Oz +2 and Shapiro +6. They gotta maintain some plausible deniability in swing states. They’ve had some big ticket splitting as well in previous polls.

Which means even GOP firms have given up on PA-GOV.