Virginia Governor's Race 2013 -Who's Gonna Win?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

So there is no chance another Dem jumps in? Is it too late?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

These results are disconcerting, I was sure Chopra would win. But I forget that racism still exists in Virginia. And Chopra sounds more foreign than Obama. And even worse, didn't Northam try to give control of the Senate to the Republcians? Who voted for him?

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

With all the crooked politics McAuliffe pulled with the Clintons, he should be seen as bad news. He'll be Hillary Clinton's running mate most likely that is if he wins.

Doubt it, he's close with Bill, not Hillary. And she'd want someone relatively young and popular. Of she wanted a Virginia running-mate, she'd go with Warner or Kaine.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Quinnipiac does show the same result as PPP - McAuliffe +4. However, both polls are "Registered Voter" polls, not "Likely Voter". Nate Silver once said that the shift from Registered to Likely usually shifts the result R+1 or R+2. If played conservatively, that turns the result into McAuliffe +3.

The poll's MoE is 3%. I agree that McAuliffe has a slight lead, but this is pretty darn close to a tossup. I'd say McAuliffe has a 55-60% chance of winning.

There's no reason to poll likely voters until AT LEAST late September. Nobody's paying attention to an election in the middle of July.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Since this race is all but over any guesess on the 2017 nominees?

Tom Perriello or Chap Petersen for the Democrats.