Texas GOP Senate Runoff (user search)
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  Texas GOP Senate Runoff (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Who would you  vote for?
#1
David Dewhurst
 
#2
Ted Cruz
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Texas GOP Senate Runoff  (Read 20644 times)
Reginald
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 802
« on: July 17, 2012, 11:17:07 PM »

Dewhurst lies closer to my politics, but Cruz is tempting as a younger rising star. Probably Dewhurst, but I won't cry a river when Cruz wins.
Of course, that's of Cruz does win.  Otherwise, you summarized my feelings exactly.  I worry that Cruz is too far-right even for Texas.

He definitely isn't, but why would that really matter? Given the polarization in Congress, I doubt Senator Cruz and Senator Dewhurst would have vastly different voting records. I guess we could see Cruz vote with Rand in some 98-2 vote occasionally (though I don't believe the two are all that similar), but that's an essentially meaningless distinction.

Most of the people who will vote against Cruz will certainly not be doing so because he's too far-right.
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Reginald
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 802
« Reply #1 on: July 31, 2012, 08:14:13 PM »

Politico's a bit farther ahead now apparently, but here's the link for the SOS anyway: http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr/results/july31_162.htm

It's early obviously, but I'll be interested to see if Cruz can keep these leads in the larger counties. Only Travis has Dewhurst up at the moment, and it's not by much. It's unsurprisingly close in Dallas as well.
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Reginald
Jr. Member
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Posts: 802
« Reply #2 on: July 31, 2012, 08:30:43 PM »

AP's called it for Cruz.

Congratulations, RogueBeaver! Cheesy
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Reginald
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 802
« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2012, 07:02:13 PM »

What patterns might we discern from this map?

As mentioned, Cruz was strong in the urban and especially the suburban areas, in addition to most of the border counties. The pattern as it pertains to the vast array of the rural, non-border counties is a bit more unclear... perhaps it's related to turnout? The Panhandle and that cluster in the center of the state voted mostly for Dewhurst in the first round, so there could be some significance there. Nevertheless, it's interesting to note that Dewhurst won each of the ten counties with the highest turnout...



... and Cruz won each of the ten counties with the lowest turnout (not nearly as noteworthy after taking into account just how low turnout was here; three people voted in Presidio County. But of course, most of these counties were not exactly expected to have many show up to vote in a Republican runoff.):



Just to visualize where these particular counties are (green is highest turnout, red is lowest):



I'll probably look into this more deeply later, just to see if this was even barely illuminating. Tongue
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