Canadian by-elections, 2013

[MaxQue]

Not related to by-elections exactly, but I saw the party list of Elections Canada than the United Party has new logo.

An exact copy of the UK Lib Dem logo, with a maple leaf added over it.

[MaxQue]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Well, it's not a reason for not trying.

[MaxQue]

The Tories will be targetting Bentley's seat. Not exactly NDP friendly.

The NDP has done better in London West both federally and provincially in the last couple elections than they had in Kitchener-Waterloo. In May 2011 the NDP took 26% there while never cracking 20% in KW. If the NDP could win a Byelection in KW why not in London West?

The two ridings are very different. The NDP vote in KW was suppressed for various reasons, while while I think there's a lower ceiling for the NDP in London West.

Well, it's not a reason for not trying.

Well, I'm just doing some research now, and perhaps the NDP should give it a try. The riding appears to have a large urban section that is friendly to the party. Maybe they can be competitive with the right candidate. London West is the most conservative riding in London, so I figured it would be off limits. Maybe I'm wrong.

Well, it's a by-election, so it would be crazy to not try, and, with three parties, a pretty low percentage allow you to win. And yes, London West is mainly urban.

[MaxQue]

The issus with London West (but NDP performed better there than in Centre North last federal election) is the proposed redistricting, which move NDP friendly areas in Fanshawe, which really doesn't need them.

[MaxQue]

The issus with London West (but NDP performed better there than in Centre North last federal election) is the proposed redistricting, which move NDP friendly areas in Fanshawe, which really doesn't need them.

No guarantee the provincial ridings will continue to match the federal ones.

Sure, but that may be an hard sell to voters. Anyways, Ontario still needs redistricing, then. They can't continue to use the old map for years.

[MaxQue]

What about Thunder Bay? Not large enough for its own riding?

It's splitted in two are geographical reasons (it's the merger of two cities and it's not possible to link all the rural around them to create a rural riding). Anyways, Thunder Bay is weakest for NDP than the rural areas around it (it's the usual North Ontario/Quebec patterns, as the cities are having more business owners/doctors/lawyers/other liberal professions than the rural areas). In short, rich people.

Provincially, two Libs (but one seat is pretty close), federally, 1 NDP and 1 Independant (elected as NDP, left over gun control).

[MaxQue]

I don't think Innus and Inuits are Conservatives, I would say they are non-partisan and vote for the candidate.

Aglukkaq was Nunavut's Health Minister when she was elected at federal level and the seat was open. They are VERY pro-incumbent, too.

For data about Innus and Inuits in Quebec, that's coming (Nunavik is in my riding, so, I really ought to know).

[MaxQue]

Innus:
Manicouagan: (NDP candidate was Innu from Usahat, Liberal candidate was disendorsed by the party after anti-Innus comments, Bloc incumbent)

Betsiamites (Pessamit):
NDP: 372 (95.9%)
Lib: 7 (1.8%)
Bloc: 6 (1.5%)
Cons: 3 (0.8%)

Mingan (Ekuantshit) :  Can’t be counted, in same precinct than Longue-Pointe-de-Mingan, a white town.

Matimekosh-Lac-John:
NDP: 9 (90.0%)
Bloc: 1 (10.0%)

Kawawachikamach (Naskapi, as Natuashish in Labrador):
Lib: 41 (64.1%)
NDP: 20 (31.3%)
Bloc: 2 (3.1%)
Green : 1 (1.6%)

Natashquan :
NDP: 143 (87.2%)
Lib: 17 (10.4%)
Bloc: 2 (1.2%)
Cons: 2 (1.2%)

Pakuashipi :
NDP: 108 (96.4%)
Lib: 3 (2.7%)
Cons: 1 (0.9%)

La Romaine (Unamenshipit) :
NDP: 102 (61.8%)
Lib: 32 (19.4%)
Bloc: 15 (9.1%)
Cons: 12 (7.2%)
Green : 4 (2.4%)

Maliotenam:
NDP: 277 (96.5%)
Lib: 4 (1.4%)
Cons: 3 (1.0%)
Bloc: 2 (0.7%)
Green : 1 (0.3%)

Uashat:
NDP: 75 (93.8%)
Cons: 3 (3.8%)
Bloc: 2 (2.5%)

Total :
NDP: 1106 (87.1%)
Lib: 104 (8.2%)
Bloc: 30 (2.4%)
Cons: 24 (1.9%)
Green : 6 (0.5%)

Mashteuiatsh (in Roberval--Lac-Saint-Jean riding, incumbent Conservative minister reelected):
NDP: 115 (41.8%)
Cons: 95 (34.5%)
Bloc: 51 (18.5%)
Lib : 8 (2.9%)
Green : 6 (2.2%)

[MaxQue]

Inuits in Nunavik (All Nunavik minus Whapmagoostui, green candidate was Inuit, NDP was Cree, Bloc was incumbent):
NDP: 797 (30.1%)
Green: 752 (28.4%)
Lib: 572 (21.6%)
Cons: 327 (12.4%)
Bloc : 197 (7.4%)

[MaxQue]

Wow, I thought the Greens had won Nunavik, but Saganash managed to pull it off. I guess Romeo did some campaigning up there?

There is also an Inuit part of the NWT (Inuvialuit).

I can't remember, but it's pretty complicated and expensive to go there.

[MaxQue]

Penashue is a student at the Duplessist porkbarrelling school.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2013/04/penashue-says-he-withheld-approval-for-nfld-project-to-secure-labrador-highway-funds.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Blame yourself, you voted for that party.

[MaxQue]

Jones is anti-registry.

https://twitter.com/YvonneJJones/status/326097605148958721/photo/1

Not really surprising in northern lands. My Bloc MP always voted with Conservatives to defund the registry, despite Bloc supporting registry.

[MaxQue]

There are too many allophones in Bourassa for the BQ to have any chance, I suspect they will run a very perfuntory campaign there and get less than 10% of the vote.

Bloc won it in 1993.

[MaxQue]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

No, he chose the day it would hidden under BC election news.

[MaxQue]

PQ will wait for an election till next year most likely. As for Harper's call... he didn't delay Labrador. So we'll just have to see.

The PQ may not have a choice, the opposition parties may vote no-confidence and force and election later this year.

Right now, it's not in CAQ interest, through.

[MaxQue]

like in Nunavik between Cree NDP and Inuit Green

The Inuit vote in Nunavik was split between Greens, NDP and Liberals. There is no Crees in proper Nunavik except in Whapmagoostui.

[MaxQue]

I think he just meant the riding.

But yeah, the NDP actually won the Inuit vote in Nunavik, but the Greens were a close 2nd.

I suppose Greens may have won Inuit vote, since I suppose NDP got a bigger share of the small white vote than them.

[MaxQue]

Inuits in Nunavik (All Nunavik minus Whapmagoostui, green candidate was Inuit, NDP was Cree, Bloc was incumbent):
NDP: 797 (30.1%)
Green: 752 (28.4%)
Lib: 572 (21.6%)
Cons: 327 (12.4%)
Bloc : 197 (7.4%)

[MaxQue]

Coderre will resign on June 2. Wonder when Harper will call the by-election, and for when.

He'll probably wait a long time again. It's not Labrador. Maybe go the day before the NS election? Or perhaps a Fall Ontario election?

There is also municipal elections in Quebec on November 3.

[MaxQue]

Coderre will resign on June 2. Wonder when Harper will call the by-election, and for when.

He'll probably wait a long time again. It's not Labrador. Maybe go the day before the NS election? Or perhaps a Fall Ontario election?

There is also municipal elections in Quebec on November 3.

Yeah, *those* will make national headlines (although, I am very much looking forward to them, as I am with any election, really)

Well, they will in Quebec.

[MaxQue]

Here's Brian Topp's chance to run for the NDP, lose, and never be heard from again...

You aren't the only which proposed that.
Who ran there in 2011?

[MaxQue]

Here's Brian Topp's chance to run for the NDP, lose, and never be heard from again...

You aren't the only which proposed that.
Who ran there in 2011?

Julie Demers.

The NDP should run someone from the Haitian community, they make up 20% of the riding.

Oh, I know her, she is a very kind person, but I'm not sure she is the right person to do that.

[MaxQue]

Didn't Macphail was elected in Gray area?

[MaxQue]

Rumours on Twitter about former hockey player and Green Party deputy leader Georges Larocque will be running in Bourassa.

Laraque, not Larocque.
For Greens, I suppose?

[MaxQue]

Hopefully NDP will give me a birthday gift and have a good result tonight.
Already than they woke me today phoning for money...