Ukraine Crisis

[Person Man]

Reminds me a bit of Syria, of all places.

Authoritarian government supresses initially peaceful protests, which results in the protests gradually being taken over by right-wing extremists and a civil war-like situation. Replace Islamists with neo-Nazis.

Even easier.

The main difference is that this is happening in the backyard between  global allies and rivals, not regional allies and rivals. This probably increases the chances of this escalating by a small amount or not.

[Person Man]

What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

[Person Man]

What are the chances of this being indicative of a Merkel-Putin Rocky IV-type situation?

Low. If anything it may end up being Obama going head to head with Putin. Merkel doesn't have the. Diplomatic power to take on Putin succesfully.

You would think that Merkel's FP  is more hawkish, closer and more ambitious than Obama's FP.

[Person Man]

Vladimir Putin is obviously not Hitler. Not quite, anyway.

Hitler believed in the racial superiority of his people and that they deserved a Lebensraum which consisted of almost all of Eastern Europe as well as parts of Asia... including territories which at no point in history had been by Germany in any way.

Putin doesn't believe in any of this. He most likely believes - being an old school KGB officer and all - that Russia deserves to control a sphere of influence which is more or less identical to the boundaries of the old Soviet Union. Maybe (and hopefully) without the Baltic republics... hopefully because that could cause real trouble. But I assume that Putin knows very well that as long as NATO exists that any direct aggression against the Baltics automatically triggers Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and this means World War III. And I also doubt that Putin believes in "victory or death" like Hitler did.

There's one parallel between Hitler and Putin though. Both men believed that the rules don't apply to them as long as they find a way to get away with it. In essence, they believed in military power and that international law is just something written on a piece of paper.

What does this mean for "the West"? It means that the West has to deal with someone who belives that everything is fair game as long as it happens on the former territory of the Soviet Unions (sans the Baltic republics).

Now that's my take on Godwin.

But didn't the Soviet SoI extend beyond Soviet borders and into Southeastern and Central Europe? Or does Putin basically just want to restore the Soviet Union but with the breakaway states as puppets? Maybe he would be interested in the FYR sans Slovenia and Croatia? but then again Yugoslavia was a neutral communist country in the Cold War.

I'm just free associating now, but beyond Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, Russia has no "in" into places the USSR was in Europe. Asia seems pretty fair game as there was already a way there. I wonder if they will eventually even go into places like Afghanistan to "fight the terrorists" once we leave.   

[Person Man]

Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.

[Person Man]

Propaganda or no propaganda, within the next week or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine. And if the response is inadequate, within a year or two the West will have to decide how to respond to Russian invasion of a state that has been pledged full protection.

This. I'm just glad that a Republican isn't president right now. If this situation isn't brought to a satisfactory conclusion in two years, this saving grace will no longer be the case.

What is it that you believe to be a "satisfactory conclusion"?

Where it becomes much less likely that Ukraine is invaded and Ukraine is not invaded.

[Person Man]

Interesting RFE interview with a former rebel.

Are these "Soviet Persons" more of that in the old school Communist scene or more of a Chinese sense where communism is just the origin of their culture and they are no longer communist?

[Person Man]

It also shows what a pointless joke the UN has become.

Please stop talking and come back when you figure out what the United Nations actually does.

In my lifetime, the only thing I have seen the UN "do" is make itself a forum for third world crackpots and tyrants to blame the west for their problems.

Here, I'll help you out. Have you noticed that smallpox isn't a thing anymore? Who do you think is responsible for that?

teh free market

Isn't that making a comeback because of our homegrown crackpots?

[Person Man]

This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it? 

[Person Man]

This is very disconcerting to say the very least. What do you think we should do about it?  

Major across the board sanctions against Russia and active economic and military aid for the Ukrainian government. Sanctions should include very strict restrictions on all financial transactions with Russia (basically, each such transaction should be authorized individually); ban on all new investment there;  banning every airline that flies to Crimea from the European and American airspace, as well as stopping all regular flights from airports that receive flights from Crimea; prohibition on any ship entering any Crimea port from using European/American ports.  Also, I would suggest major military maneuvers all around the Russian frontiers - from the Northern Territories in the East to the Kola peninsula in the west. Supporting Lituania and Poland in cutting rail and road links to Kaliningrad. Recalling ambassadors, expelling Russian ambassadors and closing Russian consulates outside capital cities. Approaching China promising full support if it chooses to make any gains at Russian expense. Etc., etc., etc. There are many things that could be done.

I think those are all good ideas. Do they necessarily need to be done in any timeframe or order? It would be great to give time for companies to come up with contingencies. We shouldn't be afraid of Russia...at all but we want to get as many people on board with us so that our isolation of them can be as efficient and effective as possible.

[Person Man]

One interview-like question-

Where does Putin see Russia in 2024? What does he want the map to look like?

Does he just want Southeastern Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and Georgia? Does he want more? Some people said he wants to reannex the Baltics and Kazakhstan.

Basically, that Putin wants to rebuild Russia as a fascist Slavic Orthodox state.

[Person Man]

Maybe his goal is to revive the USSR minus the Baltic states into a fascist version of something between the CSA and EU, in terms of cohesion?

[Person Man]

I don't think there is any ideology behind it. Russia is trying to preserve its sphere of influence, and to be fair everyone does the same.

The main problem is that while Western countries now more or less accept the right to self-determination, Russia is still ready to go at war to keep what it sees as "its playground". France was there 50 years ago with its colonies.

(An analogy would be that Westerners are now trying to find partners by being attractive, while unattractive Russia still uses rape.)

In your mind Putin is more like Borat than Hitler?

[Person Man]

US troops head to Ukraine.

Long overdue.

Mmm  hmmm...