Should Trump go after Pennsylvania or Michigan? (user search)
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  Should Trump go after Pennsylvania or Michigan? (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Which should Trump campaign in and attempt to pick up?
#1
Pennsylvania
 
#2
Michigan
 
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 54

Author Topic: Should Trump go after Pennsylvania or Michigan?  (Read 994 times)
Redban
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,980


« on: August 22, 2016, 09:48:09 AM »

Republicans will need these two states to be purple in upcoming elections. I think PA is looking good, as it will remain purple in upcoming elections; but Michigan is tough. The Democrats have an advantage there because they went to bat for the auto industry while Republicans talked about "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!" and "Too Big to fail!"
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Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,980


« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2016, 10:15:41 AM »

Republicans will need these two states to be purple in upcoming elections. I think PA is looking good, as it will remain purple in upcoming elections; but Michigan is tough. The Democrats have an advantage there because they went to bat for the auto industry while Republicans talked about "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt!" and "Too Big to fail!"

PA is pretty much Solid D, it's not purple and it hasn't been for a long time. It's fools gold.

It's unfair to call it fool's gold because the GOP has lost the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 elections. If the GOP can secure a solid 3-5% win with the right candidate under the right circumstances, then PA is their state.
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Redban
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,980


« Reply #2 on: August 23, 2016, 07:32:22 AM »

He's actually doing a couple points better in PA than in MI, as the Atlas polling map shows.

RCP average has Clinton up 9.2 in PA, but 7.3 in MI.  This is consistent with my expectations, which are that MI is going to be one or two points to the right of PA.

There are significantly fewer polls for Michigan than PA. In 2012, RCP had Michigan at 4.0 and Pennsylvania at 3.8 --- nearly even. Yet on Election Day, Michigan was D+9 while PA was D+5 -- 4 point difference.
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