TN-SEN: Return of the Bredi

[Jeppe]

The Republican establishment in TN is rallying around Blackburn. Aside from Fincher, no notable Tennessee Republican has called on Corker to run.

http://www.columbiadailyherald.com/news/20180222/state-senate-speaker-18-other-senators-endorse-blackburn

Blackburn also met with the White House and it’s expected that Trump would endorse Blackburn over Corker.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/marsha-blackburn-met-white-house-officials-as-bob-corker-reconsidered-senate-bid/article/2649577

[LimoLiberal]

Corker NOT running for reelection.


https://www.politico.com/story/2018/02/27/corker-tennessee-senate-retirement-midterms-423573

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Hahaha what a fool.

[Virginiá]

I wonder who would have been harder to beat for Bred - Corker or Blackburn? Could there have been a Flake Effect at work, where speaking out against Dear Leader actually made the incumbent Republican weaker than some primary challenger?

[Pollster]

Bredesen up with a very strong ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmXlTDa_TCw

[BuckeyeNut]

Bredesen up with a very strong ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmXlTDa_TCw

Is it though? Who does this excite?

[Blair]

Bredesen up with a very strong ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmXlTDa_TCw

Is it though? Who does this excite?

It's very average.

Ideally he'd say I don't like it when President Trump does/says X, but like President Trump I'm sick of X/Y/Z. I'll stand up to President Trump when he's wrong but I'll support him if he's doing X which helps Tennessee.

[_]

Ok this is something weird I just noticed. (Off-Topic)

For anyone who has watched Bones, does Bredesen sound kind of like Max Keenan?

[#gravelgang #lessiglad]

Bredesen up with a very strong ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmXlTDa_TCw

OT: Why specifically do so many ads feature politicians looking slightly off camera? Is it supposed to be less indimidating than looking directly at the camera? Is it supposed to be more candid-seeming?

[Brittain33]

Harry Enten

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/07/politics/bredesen-tennessee-senate-race-analysis/index.html

"Perhaps surprisingly, early Senate averages gave us some indication of where each race was heading on average. They were off an average of about 7 percentage points. Put another way, candidates who held large leads in the early going were far more likely than not to go on to win.

What early polls are not good for, though, is figuring out how close races are going to end up. When one candidate holds a single digit lead (as Bredesen does when you look at all the polls conducted this calendar year), such a lead is far from safe. Bredesen losing would be quite consistent with how predictive early Senate averages have been in the past. "

[Skill and Chance]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

That's true, and in most years I think it would almost certainly be the result in this race.  It's still a rather likely outcome; but given the overall D strength this year, Bredesen's past popularity, and Blackburn's extremism, Bredesen has a legitimate shot.  I'm calling it Lean R: Blackburn has an advantage simply because TN is so very Republican, but neither outcome would surprise me.

[Virginiá]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

I wonder how this fits into the broader issue of the president's party under-performing polls, only to start over-performing when the opposition party takes over the White House. I don't know how exactly this meshes with ancestrally partisan areas but flucuating enthusiasm gaps based on what party controls the presidency is nothing new.

[KingSweden]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

I wonder how this fits into the broader issue of the president's party under-performing polls, only to start over-performing when the opposition party takes over the White House. I don't know how exactly this meshes with ancestrally partisan areas but flucuating enthusiasm gaps based on what party controls the presidency is nothing new.

This is a good point

[BuckeyeNut]

Right now, I'd say the margin is within 8 points. (Bredesen or Blackburn by 4, Max.)

[Bidenworth2020]

Right now, I'd say the margin is within 8 points. (Bredesen or Blackburn by 4, Max.)

I'd say breeds +4 to Blackburn +10

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say I think at this point Bredesen wins by about 2-3%.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Right now, I'd say the margin is within 8 points. (Bredesen or Blackburn by 4, Max.)

I'd say breeds +4 to Blackburn +10

I'll be real here and guess somewhere between Bredesen +5 and Blackburn +12.  as that indicates, I'm not too sure of the outcome at this point, but I don't see Bredesen winning by more than 5 or Blackburn winning by more than ~12.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

Unfortunately that is exactly what I expect to happen here.

[Beet]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

Unfortunately that is exactly what I expect to happen here.

Yeah and retreads tend to lose. Just look at Russ Feingold.

[Mr. Smith]

I'm just not buying this.  Over the past few years, we've seen so many Dem+5-10 polls in conservative ancestral Dem states with tons of undecideds that turn into 5-10% Republican wins on election day.

Unfortunately that is exactly what I expect to happen here.

Yeah and retreads tend to lose. Just look at Russ Feingold.

Feingold did better the last time compared when he initially lost, which is not something that usually happens with retreads.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt D

[UWS]

Here's what could help Marsha Blackburn in the senate race in Tennessee against Phil Bredesen : Bredesen's ties with the disgraced Nashville Mayor Megan Barry who was involved in an extramarital affair with her bodyguard.

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/how-nashville-mayor-s-resignation-could-hurt-phil-bredesen-n854111

[Hindsight was 2020]

Here's what could help Marsha Blackburn in the senate race in Tennessee against Phil Bredesen : Bredesen's ties with the disgraced Nashville Mayor Megan Barry who was involved in an extramarital affair with her bodyguard.

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/how-nashville-mayor-s-resignation-could-hurt-phil-bredesen-n854111

That's really weak

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Here's what could help Marsha Blackburn in the senate race in Tennessee against Phil Bredesen : Bredesen's ties with the disgraced Nashville Mayor Megan Barry who was involved in an extramarital affair with her bodyguard.

https://www.nbcnews.com/card/how-nashville-mayor-s-resignation-could-hurt-phil-bredesen-n854111

Or you could just support the experienced governor who governed as center-right instead of supporting a far right ideologue, but I guess not voting on purely party lines is too hard for some people