Texas 2022 megathread

[Skill and Chance]

LOL - That's ridiculous, if Abbott is losing republicans are losing +40 seats in the House, the PA/WI/NC/FL/IA/OH Senate seats and at least a half dozen of governor mansions.

I agree that Abbott isn’t particularly vulnerable, but deducing that a Republican Senate candidate would lose a Senate race in a Safe R state (at the federal level) just because a Republican governor lost a Lean/Likely R state (e.g. due to some combination of unforeseen circumstances such as disaster mismanagement, personal scandal, a more D-friendly environment than anticipated, etc.) strikes me as an overreaction. Also, a 40-seat loss in the House even in that scenario seems like a serious exaggeration, especially given that gubernatorial races tend to be more decoupled from the overall environment/federal dynamics than Congressional races.

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

Disagree strongly.  Garcia turned out to be totally nuts.

[Skill and Chance]

Abbott's margin of victory in 2018 wasn’t even that impressive even when you factor in the massive D wave that year — even Doug Ducey won by a wider margin against (arguably) a stronger opponent in supposedly more 'inelastic' AZ.

No, Garcia was a SOCIALIST and Valdez wasn’t. Ergo, Garcia weak candidate, Valdez strong candidate.

Valdez couldn’t even win Fort Bend County. Whoever the democrats nominate is almost guaranteed to win it this time around.

Looks like Beto walked back his comments a bit, and has now left the door open to running:

https://twitter.com/patricksvitek/status/1378110709968556037?s=21

Maybe he’s waiting til Texas gets bluer? I could see him go for governor in 2026, or try again for senate in 2024.

He will be very old news by then.  Perhaps he could find an open state legislative district near El Paso to bide time and stay relevant?  Even so, I think the door has closed on him.  Running for president that soon and on an all social issues, all the time platform was just a really dumb move.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah I mean Abbott is still clearly favored but I do think that his 'Titanium R' appeal is not true at all. I think he's definitely vulnerable.

The hard right turn in the past 6 months definitely hasn't helped him.  It takes a lot to lose a 2X Trump state in a Dem midterm, though. 

BTW he used to be one of the more moderate red state governors on COVID.

[Skill and Chance]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

[Skill and Chance]

Exit Polls showed Governor Abbott winning 40 % of the Hispanic Vote. Abbott also had a 55/45 Job Approval in the State.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/texas-governor-results
Democrats may think twice now contesting Texas in 2024.

The Party ID in Texas in 2022 was:
R - 41
D - 30
I - 29

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What really shocked me was the CNN exit poll. It had Abbott at 48% with Asian voters. I would have expected something more like 38%.

That could be real.  Abbott did considerably better than Trump in Ft. Bend, for example.

[Skill and Chance]

Beto actually outperformed Biden in the RGV and Austin and nearly matched Biden in the Houston area (trailing Biden's margin by about 1% in most counties there).  However, he lost massive ground compared to Biden in the entire DFW area (losing Tarrant and it's not even close, Abbott up by double digits in Collin and Denton) and in the rurals.  This is basically the opposite of what we were expecting!

One of the better coalition shifts as far as D underperformances go. Although the R overperformance among Asians in the exit poll and Fort Bend makes me wonder what exactly Beto did to piss off the Chinese, Indian, Filipino, and Vietnamese Boomer immigrants… Too bad Bagel23 is no longer with us…

On a sidenote, all the Progressive Candidates Olowakandi endorsed LOST.

What about Lina Hidalgo?

Lina Hidalgo narrowly won.

Also looking at the state house map, I would be shocked if Democrats don't take it by the end of the decade. Way to many growing suburban seats with Republicans only getting 56% of the vote or less.

Yes, unless they start clawing back ground in Harris, this is eventually going to turn into the opposite of Wisconsin for Republicans where they routinely carry the statewide PV by carrying the rural/exurban seats 75/20 and lose everything else narrowly.