Thank God for Theresa Greenfield. While I still think Cal will pull it out in the end, I think it is pretty clear that Iowa is seat #50 and NC is seat #51 now (ME is 49).
No, it isn't. The conventional wisdom shouldn't have shifted so hard against Cunningham just because of:
- This one legitimately bad survey for him
- An ECU poll dropping and showing him actually improving (but people forgetting that the ECU surveys have always been bad for him)
- The first ABC/WaPo poll showing him running even with Biden while Tillis ran behind Trump
Yet, it has.
It's not clear to me how durable either Greenfield's or Cunningham's/Tillis' overperformance is, but Biden is in a stronger position in NC and partisanship alone should make the fundamentals easier for Cunningham. Perhaps Greenfield is in a better position, but there's plenty of room for doubt there (because there are fewer IA polls to begin with) and personally I think IASEN will still see a better performance for Republicans.
