Reuters/Ipsos: Peters +5 in MI, TIED in NC
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Peters +5 in MI, TIED in NC
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Peters +5 in MI, TIED in NC  (Read 1083 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 20, 2020, 03:01:51 PM »

Oct 14-20

MI:
Peters (D-inc) 50% (-2)
James (R) 45% (+1)

PRES: 51-44 Biden

NC:
Cunningham (D) 47% (+1)
Tillis (R-inc) 47% (+5)

PRES: 49-46 Biden

https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/politics/1268549-poll-republicans-close-in-on-democrats-in-michigan-north-carolina-senate-races
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2020, 03:03:22 PM »
« Edited: October 20, 2020, 03:37:47 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

October 14-20
Changes with October 7-13

MI
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_michigan_state_poll_w4_10_20_2020.pdf

686 likely voters
MoE: 4.3% for likely voters

Peters 50% (-2)
James 45% (+1)
Some other candidate 3% (+1)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure/prefer not to answer 2% (n/c)

NC
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-10/topline_reuters_north_carolina_state_poll_w4_10_20_20.pdf

660 likely voters
MoE: 4.3% for likely voters

Cunningham 47% (+1)
Tillis 47% (+5)
Some other candidate 3% (-2)
Would not vote 0% (n/c)
Not sure/prefer not to answer 3% (-4)
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2020, 03:07:01 PM »

Cunningham is finished.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2020, 03:07:11 PM »

Thank God for Theresa Greenfield. While I still think Cal will end up winning, I think it is pretty clear that Iowa is seat #50 and NC is seat #51 now (ME is 49).
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GALeftist
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2020, 03:07:20 PM »

Well, I think we have a winner for the next "everyone panic" race.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2020, 03:10:18 PM »

Thank God for Theresa Greenfield. While I still think Cal will pull it out in the end, I think it is pretty clear that Iowa is seat #50 and NC is seat #51 now (ME is 49).

No, it isn't. The conventional wisdom shouldn't have shifted so hard against Cunningham just because of:

- This one legitimately bad survey for him
- An ECU poll dropping and showing him actually improving (but people forgetting that the ECU surveys have always been bad for him)
- The first ABC/WaPo poll showing him running even with Biden while Tillis ran behind Trump

Yet, it has.

It's not clear to me how durable either Greenfield's or Cunningham's/Tillis' overperformance is, but Biden is in a stronger position in NC and partisanship alone should make the fundamentals easier for Cunningham. Perhaps Greenfield is in a better position, but there's plenty of room for doubt there (because there are fewer IA polls to begin with) and personally I think IASEN will still see a better performance for Republicans.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 03:15:48 PM »

Historically unsexy numbers in North Carolina.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 03:16:32 PM »

MI panic is over. NC panic is in. I do not like Cal's numbers in North Carolina, and I'm prepared to make that race Tilt R just out of instinctive pessimism. But we will see if the tightening is real, or if this is a one-off.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 03:20:32 PM »

I still believe Cunningham will pull this out since Tillis' overall polling is pretty bad for an incumbent, but Steve Bullock, Theresa Greenfield and Rafael Warnock/Jon Ossoff better win their races. Joe Biden needs the senate majority.
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Sestak
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« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2020, 03:37:02 PM »

Seems to be an outlier; there haven't really been any other polls suggesting Cunningham underruns the top of the ballot here.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: October 20, 2020, 03:38:35 PM »

I've updated my post with details from fuller releases, which can be found here for MI and here for NC.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: October 20, 2020, 03:46:00 PM »

Cunningham can't afford to run behind Biden much if at all. This is not good.
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WD
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« Reply #12 on: October 20, 2020, 03:48:25 PM »

Cunningham can't afford to run behind Biden much if at all. This is not good.

Most undecideds lean D in this poll. If Biden is winning NC by 3, Cunningham will 100% win.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: October 20, 2020, 03:50:18 PM »

Seems Tillis is consolidating the Trump vote, but that might not be enough. Still can't see an argument for rating NC worse than Toss-Up.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: October 20, 2020, 03:51:10 PM »

D's path to Supermajority is getting lower and lower
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #15 on: October 20, 2020, 03:54:20 PM »

Tillis won't win
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #16 on: October 20, 2020, 04:00:55 PM »

MI panic is over. NC panic is in. I do not like Cal's numbers in North Carolina, and I'm prepared to make that race Tilt R just out of instinctive pessimism. But we will see if the tightening is real, or if this is a one-off.

The MI panic was completely unjustified, as there is no way James was winning unless Trump pulled within a couple of points statewide, which isnít happening.  NC on the other hand will likely be a close Biden win that could see enough drop off to cost Cunningham the seat.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #17 on: October 20, 2020, 04:04:14 PM »

MI panic is over. NC panic is in. I do not like Cal's numbers in North Carolina, and I'm prepared to make that race Tilt R just out of instinctive pessimism. But we will see if the tightening is real, or if this is a one-off.

The MI panic was completely unjustified, as there is no way James was winning unless Trump pulled within a couple of points statewide, which isnít happening.  NC on the other hand will likely be a close Biden win that could see enough drop off to cost Cunningham the seat.
NC is pretty dem downballot. I really dont think Biden is winning here if Tillis is winning
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #18 on: October 20, 2020, 04:06:33 PM »

MI panic is over. NC panic is in. I do not like Cal's numbers in North Carolina, and I'm prepared to make that race Tilt R just out of instinctive pessimism. But we will see if the tightening is real, or if this is a one-off.

The MI panic was completely unjustified, as there is no way James was winning unless Trump pulled within a couple of points statewide, which isnít happening.  NC on the other hand will likely be a close Biden win that could see enough drop off to cost Cunningham the seat.
NC is pretty dem downballot. I really dont think Biden is winning here if Tillis is winning

Generally agree, but I could see some people voting Biden and then leaving the Senate ballot blank.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 20, 2020, 04:11:11 PM »

The sunshine crowd will have fun spinning this......
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 20, 2020, 04:21:03 PM »

Both are still lean D IMO.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: October 20, 2020, 04:23:51 PM »


NC is a Tossup, Sabato has AZ, Co, AL as Lean takeovers

IA, GA and ME and NC are tossups
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #22 on: October 20, 2020, 04:26:53 PM »

second poll today where cunningham is running behind biden, not good
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2020, 04:37:43 PM »

Reuters/Ipsos is garbage and IDK why people even put stock into it. Tillis did not surge 5% in a week, especially when Cal's scandal has been over for two weeks.

Guess we're just gonna ignore the other NC polls we've literally gotten in the past week that tell a different story.

This place for whatever reason never learns to not freak out over a single poll.

This race did not shift 6% in a week and Michigan did not shift 3% in a week.
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CookieDamage
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2020, 08:44:43 PM »

You guys really are insufferable
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