Sounds like a 54-46 race then. Vance wins by 8. Sounds about right.
The undecideds shake out to 2%D, 2%R, and 10% Independent. Ryan winning Indies by 5 here and favorables are worse for Vance than Ryan, so I don't think this is necessarily "all undecideds go GOP" here
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Ryan winning Indies by 5 here...
I think what you mean is Ryan is winning Indies *
who are not undecided* (
and actually not Indies, but in fact just Indies that were polled) by 5.
Indies who are decided are not the same thing as indies who are undecided.
In Red States, undecideds tend to break Republican. In Blue states, undecideds tend to break Democratic.
Or, in reality, a lot of 'undecideds' don't vote or simply use it as a way to avoid saying who they are going to vote for. And also a lot of people who say they 'definitely will' vote don't in fact vote, while a lot of people who say they won't vote do in fact vote.
