France 2017: Results Thread

[Tintrlvr]

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Well, LR managed to reach 20% with one of the worst possible candidates. Lower turnout could really help them too.
We need to see how many Macron voters want a centre-right government. That would indicate they were just pissed with Fillon.

Got to be relatively few considering the lion's share of Macron voters voted for HamonHollande or Bayrou in 2012. Sarkozy -> Macron voters are only about 3% of all voters according to the transfers analysis.

Edit: Brain fart.

[Tintrlvr]

good to see, even a country living in constant danger like israel realizes that le pen is a whole different animal even than wilders.

Although I'm amused that 8 people voting in Israel voted for a LaRouche candidate.

[Tintrlvr]

Okay, important question: I'm trying to make a map of the overseas vote from the PDF someone posted above. I speak French pretty well, but I was going through the results, and one was listed for somewhere called "Ancienne République" (Old/Ancient Republic). I wasn't familiar with what country this refers to in France, so I went into French Wikipedia and typed it in. It brought me to the page for the Old Republic from Star Wars. So, is there a country "Ancienne République" in French, or do Jedis also get to vote in overseas French elections?

It's Macedonia: Ancienne République yougoslave de Macédoine.

[Tintrlvr]

I asked this earlier and no one answered. Why is Corsica so rightwing?

lol it's corsica.

Muslim immigration maybe.

I was not under the impression that all that many Muslim immigrants move to Corsica...why would they (apart from sunny weather)? Its remote, economically depressed etc...

"lol it's corsica." is the real explanation, I believe. Voting patterns are more or less entirely random and unpredictable to outsiders and based on local clientelist networks rather than political ideologies or nationally relevant issues.

Wikipedia does say that 4.3% of Corsicans were born in Morocco, Algeria or Tunisia as of 2011, though, so there is at least some immigration.

[Tintrlvr]

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.

Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

Melenchon makes it to the runoff by a bit over 1% assuming the breakdown presented (i.e., half of Hamon's voters switch to Melenchon and none go to Le Pen). Le Pen stays at 21.30% while Melenchon gains 3.16% to reach 22.74%. Macron still leads with exactly 26.00%.

Percentages for all would be slightly higher if the unaccounted-for 20% don't vote.

Even if the remaining 20% all voted for Le Pen, Melenchon still pips her, 22.74% to 22.57% (which probably would only have been determined after the overseas French vote was counted, which doubtless would have been extremely controversial).

[Tintrlvr]

The map if Hamon had dropped out, and 50% of his voters had voted to Jean-Luc Mélenchon while 30% to Emmanuel Macron, as suggested by polls.

Does that change the runoff to Macron v Melenchon? Or is it still Macron v Le Pen?

Melenchon makes it to the runoff by a bit over 1% assuming the breakdown presented (i.e., half of Hamon's voters switch to Melenchon and none go to Le Pen). Le Pen stays at 21.30% while Melenchon gains 3.16% to reach 22.74%. Macron still leads with exactly 26.00%.

Percentages for all would be slightly higher if the unaccounted-for 20% don't vote.

Even if the remaining 20% all voted for Le Pen, Melenchon still pips her, 22.74% to 22.57% (which probably would only have been determined after the overseas French vote was counted, which doubtless would have been extremely controversial).

Has there ever been an instance of mainland France narrowly voting one way and overseas departments flipping the vote the other way?

I meant the non-France vote (i.e., not the overseas departments, which reported first, but the expatriate vote, which reported last).

However, no. The closest would have been in 2002, when Jospin far outperformed Le Pen in both the overseas departments and the expatriate vote, but not by nearly enough to make it into the second round.

[Tintrlvr]

Incidentally, is there yet a link for first-round votes by constituency/circonscription?

Don't have a map or details, but Wikipedia (with a source in French) says Macron won 230 constituencies to 216 for Le Pen, 67 for Melenchon and 53 for Fillon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election,_2017#Background

[Tintrlvr]

Let's keep in mind that Macron beat her by a million votes in the 1st round. Even if 100% of people who voted for all the other candidates stayed home - Macron would win 53-47! Its not enough for LePen just to reduce Macron's margins among Fillon, Melenchon and Hamon voters, she would need to start actually winning over a majority of some of these blocks....which outside the realm of possibility.

I'm curious - what would be the image of the type of Fillon voter who would end up voting for Macron vs the type would who vote for LePen?

I would assume that the vast majority of those super-rich elite Fillon voters in places like Neuilly and the rich arrondissements of western Paris would vote for Macron. But who would be the Fillon-LePen voters?

Fillon voters in the countryside, especially those who are relatively devout Catholics and therefore have stuck with LR. Fillon was second to Le Pen in most of the northern/east-central countryside (not cities, where Macron or Melenchon was typically second or even first), and she should get a majority of those voters in the second round.

[Tintrlvr]

It seems inaccurate to classify Macron with Giscard, Barre, etc. given the dynamics of each race and their respective political histories. Macron with Bayrou would probably be okay despite Bayrou definitely being slightly to Macron's right in both history and political alignment, but "center" and "center-right" should be separate categories.

I'm not sure who they thought was "unclassifiable" this year. Lassalle? He should be in "center," but fine. Cheminade, okay, but he only got 0.18%. Even Lassalle + Cheminade were not 1.75% once you include abstentions (or even before). They must have included Asselineau as "unclassifiable," which is obviously false; he should be in "far-right."

[Tintrlvr]

I can't have dozens of categories, and for most of French history the "center" has been affiliated with the right, so while FBM is an anomaly in this respect, he's not worth changing everything.

Maybe, but it makes the whole chart deeply disingenuous. It makes it look like voters strongly favored "the right" over "the left," with mass defections from the left, when in fact it was mainly "the center" and a candidate overall identified more with the left than the right that benefited. The right did not do better this year than in 1995! (Or 2007 if Bayrou counts as "center-right" rather than "center" with Macron (which is fairly arguable either way, I think).)

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As I said, fine. I would put him in "center" but fair enough for him to be in "miscellaneous."

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Asselineau has a bunch of other obviously far-right nationalist views and is basically in the same space as FN, or at least DLF. I don't know why that is controversial. He's not Chevenement, who might be fairly classified as "other," as it looks like he probably was for 2002.

[Tintrlvr]

Panzergirl promises a snap dissolution if she doesn't get an Assembly majority.

So she'll keep dissolving the Assembly over and over again? Seems like a stupid move to announce this. (On the other hand, this is assuming she does not get a majority on the first try. In my opinion, in the very unlikely circumstance where she beats Macron, all bets are off on the possibility of an FN majority in the Assembly.)

[Tintrlvr]

Ipsos, Cévipof, Le Monde poll by regions

PACA:
Le Pen 50.5% - Macron 49.5%

Hauts-de-France:
Macron 50.5% - Le Pen 49.5%

Grand-Est:
Macron 52.5% - Le Pen 47.5%

Bourgogne-France-Comté:
Macron 54.5% - Le Pen 45.5%

Normandie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Occitanie:
Macron 56.5% - Le Pen 43.5%

Centre-Val de Loire:
Macron 57% - Le Pen 43%

Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes:
Macron 60% - Le Pen 40%

Nouvelle-Aquitaine:
Macron 63% - Le Pen 37%

Pays de la Loire:
Macron 64% - Le Pen 36%

Bretagne:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Île de France:
Macron 69% - Le Pen 31%

Must be pretty likely that Macron gets close fo 90% in Paris intramuros no?

Seems likely Macron will be close to if not over 90% in the Paris department, but it's hard to say for certain how the heavily Fillon areas will vote. Also, if there is high abstentionism among Melenchon voters, Le Pen could get close to 10% even if nearly all Fillon voters go for Macron.

[Tintrlvr]

Flash poll BFM

Most convincing
Macron: 63%
Le Pen: 34%

Best project
Macron: 64%
Le Pen: 33%

Better president
Macron: 64%
Le Pen 33%

Understand people like you (was neck-and-neck before the debate)
Macron: 55%
Le Pen: 42%

Is this just debate-watchers, or somehow weighted to reflect the general population?

[Tintrlvr]

Flash poll BFM

Most convincing
Macron: 63%
Le Pen: 34%

Best project
Macron: 64%
Le Pen: 33%

Better president
Macron: 64%
Le Pen 33%

Understand people like you (was neck-and-neck before the debate)
Macron: 55%
Le Pen: 42%

Is this just debate-watchers, or somehow weighted to reflect the general population?

Debate watchers

Did they have a before of just debate-watchers? I kind of suspect the sort of people who watch debates are more likely to support Macron from the beginning anyway, which may indicate that this won't move the numbers at all in Macron's favor. Not that he needs it, of course, but I'd rather Le Pen be around 35% or lower than 40% or a smidge higher.

[Tintrlvr]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

Nantes: 86.52%
Bordeaux: 85.92%
Toulouse: 82.97%

Lyon was in the mid-to-high 80s Macron also, but would need to add up the arrondissements.

Also:

Strasbourg: 81.24%
Lille: 78.27%

So there wasn't an *enormous* regional variation in the big cities themselves. The exception obviously is Marseille, where Macron only managed about his national figure overall (but again would need to add up the arrondissements).

[Tintrlvr]

Paris went 89.7% Macron
Rennes went 88.4% Macron

Do any other big cities give him bigger numbers?

Also, it's quite interesting to compare round one and round two numbers - the correlation between a high left wing vote in the first round and a high second round vote for Le Pen looks surprisingly weak. In particular round the South West.

Nantes: 86.52%
Bordeaux: 85.92%
Toulouse: 82.97%

Lyon was in the mid-to-high 80s Macron also, but would need to add up the arrondissements.

Also:

Strasbourg: 81.24%
Lille: 78.27%

So there wasn't an *enormous* regional variation in the big cities themselves. The exception obviously is Marseille, where Macron only managed about his national figure overall (but again would need to add up the arrondissements).

I looked at a few more out of curiousity: Lyon in at 84.1%; Grenoble at 82.7%; Nancy at 81.4%; Metz at 72% Marseille at 64.4% and Nice at 60.4%.

So yeah, no huge variations city-to-city, with the stand out exception of the South East.

The South East big cities vote a lot like the regions that they are in; whereas the cities in North/East, the other FN stronghold, vote much more like big cities across the rest of country.

Rennes gave Hollande the best score of any big city last time; and Macron the second highest after Paris this time.

Yes, it's striking that the urban-rural divide (or large cities-small cities divide) is much, much larger in the Northeast than in the Southeast. The Northeastern rural areas and small cities are much more FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast, but the Northeastern urban areas are much less FN-friendly than similar places in the Southeast (though overall the cities are less FN-friendly than the countryside in both places). Also explains Aisne, which surprised a lot of people by being consistently the most FN-friendly department but is also a mostly rural northern department with no large urban area to counterbalance it (largest commune has a population of only about 55,000).

[Tintrlvr]

Sorry if this was already answered, but did Le Pen lose Vaucluse's 3rd constituency (her niece's constituency)?  I'm having a hard time eyeballing the map here.

No, Le Pen won Vaucluse-3 with 52.94% of the vote.

http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/les-cartes-de-la-presidentielle/carte-presidentielle-les-45circonscriptions-ou-marine-le-pen-a-depasse-50-des-suffrages-au-second-tour_2181385.html

[Tintrlvr]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

Probably reasonably close to a majority of those were Melenchon voters, though a fair number were probably Fillon voters as well, with some Hamon and Dupont-Aignan voters and of course a large portion of the people who voted for fringe candidates in the first round. Plus 2.57% cast blank or null ballots in the first round already.

[Tintrlvr]

11.47% of votes cast were Blank and null ballots.  I assume most of them were  Mélenchon voters.

Probably reasonably close to a majority of those were Melenchon voters, though a fair number were probably Fillon voters as well, with some Hamon and DuPont-Aignan voters and of course a large portion of the people who voted for fringe candidates in the first round. Plus 2.57% cast blank or null ballots in the first round already.

This is from polling results of those who supported the top 5 candidates in the first round:

That's not everyone who voted blank/null, though. One, it includes abstentions as well as blank/null votes. Two, it doesn't include anyone who voted for other candidates in the first round than those listed (which was nearly 10% of the vote). Three, it doesn't include people who voted blank/null in the first round (which was another 2.5%).

[Tintrlvr]

By the way, why do the results for overseas voting locations make a differentiation between Israel and Jerusalem?

Because I guess Jerusalem isn't part of Israël???

Am I missing something here? Is Jerusalem not the capital of Israel? Everything else on the webpage is by country, why is there a distinction? Is Jerusalem there to represent Palestine?

The European Union officially recognizes Jerusalem as a "corpus separatum," not a part of Israel. France takes that more seriously than some other countries.

Israel only officially declared Jerusalem its capital in 1980. France, like the US and many other countries, officially recognizes Tel Aviv as its capital.