2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[Mr.Phips]

No.  Redistricting will be a bipartisan incumbent protection that also creates a strong Republican district for Tom Kean to run in.

[Mr.Phips]

Yeah, even in the event that they could do it, I really don't know if it'd be a good idea. Better to sink him.

Granted, Kim had an impressive overperformance this year and might not completely need the help.

Kim will need reenforcement in the future.  Look for him to drop most or all of Ocean county to Van Drew and Smith.

[Mr.Phips]

In fairness the redistricting process in NJ isn't especially fair--judges select the preferred map from ones presented by the Dems and Reps IIRC.

It goes to a tiebreaker, relatively similar to AZ. IIRC D's got the legislative gerrymander to a degree while R's got the congressional dummymander due to Christy pressure.

Couldn’t Dems have refused to allow a former Republican to be the tiebreaker in NJ?

[Mr.Phips]

I threw a map that I thought the commission might actually end up drawing.

The idea is that they permit 3 GOP seats. NJ-02: Jeff Van Drew is a Norcross acolyte, so they will keep his district as is, allowing him to maintain his seat in most years. The second GOP seat is NJ-07. Kean came close in 2020, he has a seat on the commission, and Malinowski has run into trouble. They give Kean a GOP sink in Northern Jersey, taking Sussex, Warren, and red parts of Somerset, Morris, and into Union, where his home in Westfield lies. The third GOP seat is the traditional sink in Monmouth and Ocean,, snaking into Hamilton, where Chris Smith resides.

There are three minority seats. NJ-12 captures the minority-heavy areas along the Route 1 corridor. It is just over 50% non-White. Watson-Coleman would occupy this seat in most cases. NJ-10, held by Donald Payne, captures Black-heavy areas such as Newark and its immediate environs, as well as into Union and a snake into Jersey City. NJ-08, held by Albio Sires, captures Elizabeth, the Hispanic parts of Hudson and Essex. This is the ugliest district of the map.

NJ-03 captures almost all of Burlington and the less red parts of Ocean. If they keep Hamilton in Smith's district, which I think they might, there's not much opportunity to make this seat bluer, but Kim is quite strong and could continue winning.

NJ-11 captures much of Morris and Western Essex. It extends into Passaic to make it bluer. Sherrill should be able to keep the seat comfortably.

NJ-05 contains Bergen and the less Hispanic parts of Hudson. Gottheimer should be able to win easily in this district.

NJ-09, held by Bill Pascrell, becomes a lot less blue to shore up Gottheimer and Sherrill. Much of the area around his hometown of Paterson belongs to other district. It contains Paterson, northern Morris, and parts of Bergen. Should be safe regardless.

NJ-06 contains Eastern Middlesex and the Monmouth coast. Frank Pallone lives in Long Branch, thus the snake down the coast.

NJ-01 is centered around Camden and will be held by Donald Norcross.

Keeping incumbents in their districts really makes it difficult to make an aesthetically pleasing map. Watson-Coleman, Smith, and Kim live in neighboring towns essentially. Same with Pascrell, Sherrill, and Gottheimer. Maybe they won't consider this, upon which the map gets a lot simpler.

I’m thinking something like this is what gets drawn, but potentially with Smith picking up a bit more Ocean from Kim and Kim getting a bit more of Mercer.

[Mr.Phips]

Here is my submission to the NJ commission for a CD map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7224b3db-0c0f-4182-a964-204342d33d4e

Looks pretty reasonable.  What are the 2020 presidential numbers in Pallone’s district?

[Mr.Phips]

Important to note that, by tradition, whichever side "loses" the congressional map decision is generally given the "win" on the legislative map decision.   That's what happened in both 2001 and 2011.

R's got their congressional map in both 2001 and 2011.  I think in 2001 it was probably overall a good deal for D's, but in 2011 the D's kinda got screwed since their legislative majorities were secure anyway.

Frankly I think whichever side gets their congressional map is who will ultimately be the winner. Just 2 or 3 extra seats in the House in such a polarized environment full of close elections is really valueable, especially since anything other than an extreme R Gerry (which presumably wouldn’t be chosen) isn’t going to put Dems state legislative majorities on the line. Ig the one thing that could be important in the state legislative maps could be the Dem map will prolly offer a more viable path to a supermajority, but considering NJ has and will likely continue to have liberal Dem govs, it doesn’t matter too much.

Any chance that Dems could get Kean’s vote for a 9-3 map that turns NJ-07 into a tailor made Trump district for him?

[Mr.Phips]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

[Mr.Phips]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

[Mr.Phips]

100 percent chance of a northwest vote sink now.

RIP Malinowski.

Yeah, trying for 10-2 would surely be far too risky if 2022 is now likely a wave.

Yep just work on saving Kim, Sherill, and Gottheimer by giving them all Biden + 10 districts.

Biden+10 might not be enough to save them, especially if suburban reversion hits NJ hard in 2022. The districts probably have to dig deep into the urban districts of 8, 9, 10 to be fully shored up.

This should be enough for incumbents in a federal race. 

Wasn’t enough for TJ Cox or Gil Cisneros in 2020. Or for Steve Russell or Claudia Tenney in 2018.

All pretty weak incumbents. 

[Mr.Phips]

If it Dems try 10-2 or 11-1 they might get 6-6 in 2022. Even 9-3 might be very shaky in 2022, I could easily Kim, Sherrill, or Gottheimer losing their seats if Rs got a strong candidate but each would be favored, and would be fine in any presidential year.

I agree, they're pretty much in the same boat as say, Ed Perlmutter or Peter DeFazio. If they're in seats Biden only won by low double digits, then there's a decent chance they'd be the inverse of SC-1 or OK-5. Of course they'll flip right back in 2024.

Difference is that these districts are not trending R the way OK-05 and SC-01 were trending D.

[Mr.Phips]

If Republicans put this forward, do Dems say no?



NJ-01: Clinton +31, for Norcross, the whole of Camden County and picking up some Blue territory in South Burlington. Safe D.

NJ-02: Trump +4, for Van Drew. All of Gloucester, Salem, Cumberland, Cape May and the red parts of Atlantic. Seat is trending red and Van Drew overperforms, yet could possibly flip. Van Drew is hated by this forum bc of his party switch, but it's better him than some MAGA believer from a Dem perspective.

NJ-03: Trump +17. Atlantic City, most of Burlington, and most of Ocean. This seat would be open and safe R in 2022.

NJ-04: Trump +12, for Smith. This seat takes his Hamilton area home and combines it with Lakewood, the interior of Monmouth, and the WWC reddish areas of Middlesex. Most likely Safe with Smith, could weaken with a different R.

NJ-05: Clinton +12, for Gottheimer. This seat drops Sussex and Warren and takes much of Dem-friendly South Bergen. Gottheimer is now completely safe.

NJ-06: Clinton +11, for Pallone. Extends from Pallone's home in Long Branch along the Raritan Bayshore into the diverse communities of East Middlesex. Completely safe for Pallone, weaker with another Dem.

NJ-07: Trump +11, for Thomas Kean. In response to weak Dem performance in the recent elections and Malinowski's troubling ethics violations, NJ Dems decide to give Kean a Northwest Jersey sink and eliminate Malinowski. This seats drops some of Morris and picks up Warren and Sussex. Likely R in 2022, lean R for the future with Kean.

NJ-08: Clinton +51, for Sires. Keeps most of the Hispanic areas of Hudson, Essex, and Union, while dropping Bergen. Safe D forever.

NJ-09: Clinton +19, for Pascrell. Takes in the Paterson area, the remainder of Bergen, and some of Essex for population. Safe D, but might have swung R in 2020 given Trump's gains in Paterson.

NJ-10: Clinton +75, for Payne. Takes in the Black areas of Essex, Hudson, and Union. Safe D.

NJ-11: Clinton +8, for Sherill. Takes in most of Morris and some of Union and Essex. The inclusion of Montclair, West Orange, and Bloomfield make this safe D.

NJ-12: Clinton +45, for Kim. Takes in Bordentown for Kim and extends along the diverse Route 1 Corridor, taking in most of Mercer and the more diverse areas of Somerset and Middlesex. Safe D.

The map being accepted by Democrats relies on the scenario where they are shocked and nervous after the 2021 elections and decide on incumbent protection. Malinowski is axed given his problematic nature, but every other Democrat gets a permanently safe seat, minimizing downside. Watson-Coleman retires, allowing Kim to receive a safe seat and ditch his difficult district.

Who might say Yes? Republicans, who receive four seats. The Dem incumbents bar Malinowski. Norcross and his allies, who are guaranteed to control NJ-01 and NJ-02.

Who might say No? Democratic allied groups. Malinowski.

One aspect of redistricting often ignored is that incumbents really love not having to worry about keeping their seats and largely don't care if their party might get one less seat overall as a trade off. Case in point the controversial California gerrymander of the 2000s, which obviously were not optimal for Dems overall seat totals but result in no Dem seats flipping the entire decade.

Why would Andy Kim accept this map that eliminates his district? This is a non-starter; two D districts in South Jersey is essential.

The idea is that as long as Kim lives in the district he’ll be happy to get a Biden +35 district instead of a Trump district. Any 2022 configuration that guarantees Kim safety will have to include Mercer, it’s just how much of Ocean to include.

Before 2018, the Dems had only the Camden seat for a long time, so it’s not ancestral. I think it could be decently likely that whatever they draw backfires in South Jersey, if Mercer isn’t included.

The key for Kim is getting rid of most or all of Ocean county. 

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

[Mr.Phips]

Quick NJ Realistic Map

Great point from Progressive Moderate.

I drew this quick realistic map. 9-3. The Northwest seat goes into Union to pick up Westfield for Kean. But even as a 'sink', it's still only Trump +2. Not winnable for Dems in 2022, but definitely could be in the future. Maybe not if Kean gets a good grip on it like he ought to do given his overperformance even in 2020.

The big factor in South Jersey is how much of Camden County Norcross is willing to cede. My prior is 0, given him and his brother's disregard for anything but maintaining their own power, but we'll see. If Norcross allows Kim to take in Cherry Hill and Pennsauken, then Kim stands a chance in 2022. If not, I don't see how he survives if his district is anything like the current form given the Red wave that swept South Jersey a few weeks ago.

If Watson-Coleman retires, then Dems ought to go for a 10-2 and slice up her district. Kim getting Trenton would be a massive boon.

NJ is not the type of state where incumbents would be likely to support the greater good of the party, so I think Watson-Coleman keeps her seat mostly intact if she doesn't retire at the expensive of Kim and Malinowski.

All Kim needs is to get most or all of Ocean county out of his district and split between NJ-02 and NJ-04.  Any replacement territory would be substantially better for him.

Kim’s district is bounded by Norcross and Smith’s districts. The Dem territory in the area is in Camden County and Mercer County. Unless the commission throws Smith under the bus and removes his hometown from the district his entry into Mercer is blocked, and unless Norcross cedes some of Camden county which might be unlucky because of his brother’s institutional power Kim’s district struggles to get bluer.

Even having parts of  inner Monmouth and Atlantic is better for Kim than having Ocean.  I believe you can get to a Biden + 8 or district by doing this, which should be enough for Kim even in a wave.

It’s easy to see a Biden+8 fall in a wave.

Sure it could, but it would at least give Kim pretty good odds as opposed to the current district. 

You seemed to be suggesting he’d be safe in a Biden+8, rather than just that he’d be less endangered.

I’m not saying he’d be safe.  He should be favored in such a district, but it’s pretty much impossible to make it any better than that without making other Dem districts shaky.

Shaky, yes, but not seats they’d lose unless they’re having a really bad night. Also, they just need to turn Van Drew’s seat into an R sink and Kim should be safe.

I’d argue pretty much no matter what Van Drew’s seat will be drawn to be swingy; ceding bluer Philly burbs means taking in Atlantic City. Deep South Jersey also just lacks extreme political geography.

Van Drew already has Atlantic City in his seat. He can, however, get a lot more of Ocean in his seat than he has now.

Certainly possible that he could cede all but the precincts along the coast to Kim.

[Mr.Phips]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if Ciattarelli won the new NJ-03, NJ-05 or NJ-11.

I’m thinking Dems likely drew the districts so he didn’t. 

[Mr.Phips]

Looks like a 9-2-1 map, not 9-3

yeah dont know why people are considering the Biden +4 district a GOP district.

In 2022 it is.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473688735216713728?s=20

Sherrill seems to be in the “could be interesting in a really bad wave” category, a la Bill Foster, Raja Krishnamoorthi, or Ed Perlmutter.

Could they all be single digit races?  Sure.

[Mr.Phips]

Hot take: I think there is a possibility one of Gottheimer or Kim lose in 2022, and that Mikie Sherrill's race is within 5 points. And I could very well see a double-digit win for Kean in 2022.

Even Phil Murphy won these districts.  I could see them being within five points, but it’s highly unlikely that they’ll actually lose. 

[Mr.Phips]

The GOP needs to get its own Marc Elias. It seems like the Dems win every redistricting lawsuit and the GOP wins none.

They do have their own Marc Elias. It’s called the Supreme Court of the United States.

They will not hear redistricting cases.

[Mr.Phips]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1494497981554380801?cxt=HHwWgsCywd__wr0pAAA...

Reportedly, there is a narrow but plausible path to GOP legislative majorities in 2023. Honestly, New Jersey Republicans are criminally underrated as a party.

Dems should only agree to a map that shores up incumbents on both sides.