IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[Mr.Phips]

Theresa Greenfield lost by 7 points despite leading in most polls. Iowa is gone for Democrats, full stop. Safe R even if Grassley retires.

Agreed.

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

[Mr.Phips]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/15/iowa-cindy-axne-doesnt-rule-out-2022-senate-governor-run-campaign-democrats/4177132001/

I mean, she's going to lose either way. The question is if she wants to lose her House seat or lose in a bid for Senate.

There is no way her district doesn’t get more Dem.  Polk county is growing and the district will need to shed rural territory.

What’s there to lose? Unless they’re worried about one of the other 3 seats coming back into play, the Iowa GOP will give Axne a swing seat.

IA-01 and IA-02 did not go for Trump by big margins.  Also, Polk county cannot be split.  Any district with Polk county in it will be no worse for Axne than the current district.