IA-SEN 2022: Grassley vs Franken

[MT Treasurer]

Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democrat Abby Finkenauer by 18 percentage points among likely voters in an early test of what could be a marquee matchup in the 2022 midterms.

The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll results show Grassley leads 55% to 37% among likely voters. Another 7% are not sure who they would vote for in a head-to-head matchup, and 1% would not vote.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/iowa-poll-chuck-grassley-leads-abby-finkenauer-in-test-possible-senate-match/8378103002/

This should be fun, let’s get a thread going about the marquee Senate battle of 2022. Can Republicans stop the Fink or is strong incumbent Joni Ernst's motorcycle plabook just not replicable in a midterm?

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats should stop beating around the bush and pick the one candidate that justifiably scared and preoccupied Chuck Grassley this cycle.

Pidgin 2022.

It wasn’t Grassley's fault: He was a strong incumbent in an excellent year for his party and even had Ernst's motorcycle brigade at his command — everything seemed to go according to plan; that is, until he heard an unmistakable sound above and looked up at the sky. Overcome by a sudden feeling of consternation and fear, he uttered the final words of his campaign, which still reverberate throughout the streets of IA: "I can’t do this."

[MT Treasurer]

(Even more) bad news for Grassley / IAGOP, as IA Democrats seek to replicate the Stacey Abrams model in the Hawkeye State:

“Everybody is looking at the Stacey Abrams model,” said Sean Bagniewski, chairman of the Democratic Party in Polk County, Iowa, adding that while the specific strategies vary by state, “the one constant is that no matter what state you look at, everyone’s trying to do some version of what Stacey did.”

Democrats have seen few statewide successes in Iowa over the past decade. Republicans now control the governor’s mansion and both of the state’s Senate seats. Bagniewski said that part of his party’s problem in Iowa is that it largely gave up on voter registration and mobilization in favor of the kind of data-heavy campaigns that helped deliver former President Obama the state in both 2008 and 2012.

“When I started in Iowa politics in 2008, there were 100,000 more registered Democrats in Iowa than Republicans,” Bagniewski said. “Obama won twice. We were coming off of Tom Vilsack’s two terms as governor. [Former Gov.] Chet Culver was in office.”

“How did we lose so much so quickly?” he continued. “The answer comes back to voter registration and turnout. It’s the Stacey Abrams model.”

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/544414-dems-look-to-georgia-model-ahead-of-2022-senate-races

Grassley is also 'brushing off' his poor poll numbers, not letting them deter him from running again:

Hinting that he will seek another term, U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, said he will not be swayed by recent polling that shows a majority of Iowans, including a third of Iowa Republicans, hope he decides not to seek another term in 2022. [...]

Grassley brushed off the poll results, pointing to previous, similar polls that showed Iowans were divided over whether longtime former state governor Terry Branstad should seek re-election in 2013. Branstad ended up coasting into a historic sixth term.

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/iowa-senator-chuck-grassley-reelection-2022-campaign-announcement-hint-20210317

[MT Treasurer]

Donald John Trump is Iowa’s Stacey Abrams. If it weren’t for him, Iowa would’ve been the state with the lowest voter turnout.

Yeah, after all, Republicans only lost the Senate in January 2021, when Trump wasn’t on the ballot.

[MT Treasurer]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

[MT Treasurer]

Rob Sand IS considering

https://www.thegazette.com/state-government/state-auditor-rob-sand-considering-run-for-iowa-governor-or-u-s-senate/

He would lose. He might hold Grassley to "only" double digits (assuming Grassley does indeed run for reelection, which he seems to be leaning towards), but I doubt he would come closer than that. Against any candidate not named Grassley, Sand would come within single digits, but still lose by a sizable enough margin.

He could, but I’m not sure I agree that Sand would come within single digits against some generic R not named Grassley. If Republicans can’t win a heavily white, considerably rural/small-town, fairly religious, and somewhat non-college-educated Trump +8/Ernst +7 state that’s zooming rightward by double digits after two years of an extremely aggressive Democratic trifecta, chances are the midterms will be somewhat of a disappointment for them. Even in a more neutral year, I would expect a double-digit blowout in this state at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

You can tell Grassley is panicking after that TX-06 result because the implications of low-prop voters not turning out in that district are pretty significant for his race, so he’s desperately trying to activate his base with tweets like that.

Side note -- I like how OC's post above that tweet is perfectly coherent while Grassley's... isn’t.

[MT Treasurer]

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/05/10/chuck-grassley-2022-485648

If Iowa's incumbent senator runs for reelection in 2022, the seat is safe for Republicans. If he retires, they'll have a battle on their hands.

This stuff is beyond parody.

We’re supposed to pretend that "literally no one thinks/says that" and that we’re only "mocking" non-existent takes, though.

[MT Treasurer]

Pat Grassley unlikely to run?

There are rumors that Grassley wants to elevate his grandson, statehouse Speaker Pat Grassley, into the Senate. But that isn’t happening, according to the senator and his allies.

“I know for a fact that is not true,” said state Rep. Lee Hein, a Republican close to Pat Grassley. He said Pat Grassley is not interested in being a senator and encouraged Chuck to run again.

Also... if Tester says it’s competitive, it will be competitive (because clearly everything Tester does is 10D chess and he’s never wrong about anything):

“God, I hate to give you an on-the-record comment on this,” sighed Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), who led Democrats’ campaign arm in 2016. “He’s the difference between whether this is a competitive race, or whether Chuck Grassley just wins again.”

[MT Treasurer]

https://twitter.com/IAFieldReport/status/1397984288646258688

Alright, cue the memes.

Grassley starting his 99-county farewell tour today

[MT Treasurer]

Between Youngkin winning the R nomination for VA-GOV, Heller running for NV-GOV, and Finkenauer likely announcing her Senate campaign, this was probably the best non-November month for Atlas memes in a long time. Sometimes I can’t help but wonder if some politicians/elected officials are actually aware of what’s being posted on this forum/board...

[MT Treasurer]

I'm also curious as to how she became a meme. Can someone seriously explain? Funny thing is that I'm fairly sure the "Unbeatable Finkenauer" memes only became a thing after she lost reelection. So maybe it was meant to be an ironic thing?

A lot of it seems to come from the fact that in 2018 all the prognosticators had her up there as one of the surest bets to flip a House seat of any race in the country and in the end she only won by an extremely underwhelming five points.

https://www.rollcall.com/2018/09/06/the-10-most-vulnerable-house-members-in-2018-list-remains-all-republican/

"The 10 Most Vulnerable House Members in 2018 List Remains All-Republican
Iowa Rep. Rod Blum is once again in the top spot"

1. Rep. Rod Blum, R-Iowa

Operatives in both parties believe Blum ranks among the most vulnerable House Republicans, with the combination of a tough district and a formidable challenger in Democratic state Rep. Abby Finkenauer. And Blum is also facing an Ethics Committee investigation relating to his failure to disclose his role as CEO of a company. Trump carried the district by 3 points in 2016 after it backed Obama in 2008 and 2012.

Even in September 2018, they still considered him the most vulnerable R incumbent, even more likely to lose than Rothfus, Comstock, Coffman, Yoder, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

FINKEAUAR or Mauhlbauer

You’re amazing at this. Governor Mauhlbauer (D-IA) is inevitable.

He even 'misspelled' Finkenauer in his signature in exactly the same way as in that post. True sophisticated performance art.

[MT Treasurer]

Through a very reliable source and friend of mine who’s involved in several IAGOP campaigns at the state and local level, I have obtained access to Chuck Grassley's internal polling. Please do NOT share this with anyone, this is confidential.

Senate:

Finkenauer (D) 52
Grassley (R, inc.) 36

Finkenauer (D) 54
Hinson (R) 33

Finkenauer (D) 53
Feenstra (R) 33

Finkenauer (D) 52
Reynolds (R) 38

Sand (D) 49
Grassley (R, inc.) 41

Axne (D) 48
Grassley (R, inc.) 42

Greenfield (D) 45
Grassley (R, inc.) 43


Governor:

D primary:

Mauhlbauer 48
Sand 40

GE:

Mauhlbauer (D) 50
Reynolds (R, inc.) 41

Sand (D) 49
Reynolds (R, inc.) 41


In the House races, Feenstra is ahead in IA-04 (it’s a lot closer than expected, though, and he is trailing in some counties), Mariannette Miller-Meeks is down by double digits in IA-2 (her favorability numbers are disastrous and have taken even more of a hit after Rita Hart's challenge in the House), Hinson is trailing a generic D by a high single-digit margin in IA-1 (this is the district where Finkenauer's presence at & Trump's absence from the top of the ticket are having the most detrimental effect on R prospects), and Axne is in no danger whatsoever in IA-3, leading by a wider margin than Feenstra (the extent to which D trends in the Des Moines metro have accelerated under Biden is impossible to overstate; that part of the state is essentially going the way of Metro Atlanta).

My friend also says that it’s an open secret in IAGOP circles that Feenstra is pretty overrated by national punditry/out-of-state observers and that he’s known to be a lackadaisical campaigner who’s in serious danger of blowing a winnable race for the party, which is why there’s been pressure on him to step down.

[MT Treasurer]

I changed the thread title to something more "serious" and won’t bother you (or anyone else) with these "unfunny memes" anymore, so don’t worry. Feel free to delete this entire thread and replace it with a new one that contains more insightful analysis about how low-propensity Trump voters in the Driftless area will stay home/tear up their ballots without Trump on the ticket or how Biden's approval rating in one Selzer poll may signal a reversion to pre-2016 voting patterns in IA.

All sarcasm aside (and this time for real), I can see why some people think that these "memes" (most of which are responses to actual analyses that have been posted here and not something users just came up with — largely exaggerated reponses, yes, but often not nearly as hyperbolic as you may think and, with very few exceptions, no products of our imagination*) have gotten out of hand. I sincerely appreciate any honest criticism that’s been made in good faith on this matter (and only that kind of criticism), and I’ve always tried to confine these types of posts to threads which are largely based on conjecture/random tweets/subjective assessments/one- or two-sentence predictions and rarely contain any lengthy, granular analysis like the threads on the Political Geography Board. Admittedly, the memes were also somewhat of a distraction for me considering that I’m more than occupied with "serious" analyses and "effort contributions" in my not seldom exhaustive real life. It’s also a lot easier to deal with the one-sided nature/political bias of this forum through less "serious" discourse like that. For all the flak the "memers" have been taking from certain posters on here, it is remarkable that I’ve never received a single private message alerting me of the 'seriousness' of this matter. It’s a little sad that certain (and it’s really only a handful) moderators would prefer bashing/insulting posters publicly rather than just discussing the issue via PM, which is probably the first thing that would come to my mind in a situation like this if I were a moderator. Many (not all!) complaints about these things come from posters who very clearly bear a grudge against people they don’t even know, are not nearly as consistent in their criticism of "repetitive, unfunny memes" on different boards and in interactions with different posters and Atlas "institutions," apparently (and quite literally) spend their entire day accumulating easy recommends by fixating on other posters, and largely seize the occasion to put on a disingenuous show. I’ve said this repeatedly, but if a particular poster supposedly bothers you this much and you still refuse to make use of the ignore button (instead preferring to publicly obsess over their posts/jump on the trendy bandwagon that bashes them or "calls them out"), it really does reveal more about you than about them. Paradoxically, I am grateful for the recent meme hysteria because this episode is a prime example of how this forum encourages arbitrary nastiness and dishonesty — I’m not exclusively talking about a certain contingent of particularly vitriolic posters here, I’ve very much noticed these tendencies in myself and in the way I behave on here as opposed to real-life interactions (this might be reflected in some of my "meme-ish" posts as well). It’s one of the reasons some of my comments come across as condescending or even (at times, at least) aggressive, but the weird part is that I’ve rarely had these experiences outside this forum. I concur with others who have noted that there’s something about this site that brings out the worst in people and fuels destructive, addictive tendencies in oneself that should be stifled as soon as possible. I will reiterate that I don’t bear a grudge against anyone here (even those posters with whom I strongly disagree I don’t consider "unpleasant" unless there’s a clear level of obsessive vitriol directed against me/others), and again with very few exceptions, I’ve enjoyed the individuality and uniqueness of each poster on this forum. I also owe ElectionsGuy an apology because I was unjustifiably harsh in my interactions with him in the lead-up to the 2020 election, being way too confident about my own predictions and deriding his (if anyone else feels like they’ve had that experience with me, I’m genuinely sorry if you thought that I was intent on putting you down or deriding you; in fact, I honestly still have a hard time processing the fact that I haven’t been interacting with random states/avatars this entire time). I genuinely do not wish harm of any kind on anyone — the "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you" commandment is one I cherish more than any other one (in spite of its underlying daunting view of human nature given the appeal to man's self-centeredness which it cannot wholly transcend) and I fear violating it myself, be it 'anonymously' or not. It’s in our hands what path we choose to go down, and I try my best to choose good over malice.

In any case, memes or not**, I’ve wasted way too much of my lifetime on this website and it’s time to step in for my personal well-being more than anything else. If anyone wants to discuss something, take it to the PMs — if I can still log in, I will probably pay a visit every once in a while (I might also continue working on that one TL at some point), but you’ll be spared the "memes" from my side from now on. I do (unironically, for once) hope that further contributions will greatly enhance the quality of this thread/board without the abundance/proliferation of memes. Irrespective of this episode, it has long been time for me to devote attention solely to my life outside this forum and not let this site negatively impact me to an extent which I would regret if I did not forestall it right now. If there’s one piece of advice I can offer to all of you, it’s not to lose sight of your actual life and not to let this forum/the internet/social media take hold of you before it’s too late. Don’t waste your life, especially in a manner which you know does not reflect the better sides and the potential inherent in you.   

*That NH "meme" aside, which (believe it or not), I never actually intended to become a meme.

**I will say that I’ve been fond of the moments when the memes became reality (e.g. Cornyn's 2020 NUT map, which I adamantly and foolishly did not foresee — kudos to swamiG for that).

[MT Treasurer]

Thread title has been updated with the most important developments in this race.

The worthwhile analysis referred to in the title can be accessed here:

https://youtu.be/F9PqnjwsVyQ
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/politics/chuck-grassley-des-moines-register-poll/index.html
https://www.montanarightnow.com/national_news/why-republicans-should-be-worried-about-iowa/video_23d9b522-7183-562b-b3d6-baa79789b8ee.html

[MT Treasurer]

Grassley and Ernst just completed their annual 99-county retail politics tour. Grassley will announce his decision about a 2022 run by November 1.

“Well, they kind of swear at me and say: ‘How come you started all this?'” Grassley says, with a laugh. Grassley says by November 1st he’ll make a decision about whether he’ll be campaigning for an eighth term in the US. Senate next year. He’s been talking with his wife, Barbara, and his immediate family about the decision.

“I think they are thinking it through and then what the people of Iowa have to say,” Grassley says. “Now, the latter is very difficult to determine because I don’t have just a few people say: ‘You ought to retire,’ and maybe those are people who want me to retire so they can elect a Democrat — I don’t know their motives, but I get a lot of people to encourage me to run.”

https://www.radioiowa.com/2021/09/02/grassley-completes-99-county-tour-talks-about-his-future/

Yikes:

A few people in the crowd booed Grassley when he was first introduced at the event. Genia Kujath of Marion is upset that Grassley voted for the infrastructure bill. “I voted for him the last round,” she said. “Not again. Never.” Grassley says if he could talk to her, he’d thank her for voting for him in the past.

"Chuck Grassley isn’t too swampy. Chuck Grassley IS the swamp."

[MT Treasurer]

🚨🚨🚨 Potential Selzer/DMR SHOCK poll incoming 🚨🚨🚨

A new Iowa Poll will explore Gov. Kim Reynolds’ job approval on the ongoing pandemic, economy and education.  

Findings on those questions regarding the Republican governor and others will be released on DesMoinesRegister.com beginning at 6 p.m. Saturday and will appear in the Des Moines Sunday Register.  

Other articles charting the opinions of Iowans — including on a hypothetical matchup between U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and his would-be opponent former U.S. Rep. Abby Finkenauer; COVID-19 vaccine mandates; President Joe Biden’s performance and abortion —  will be released over subsequent days.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/17/iowa-poll-new-survey-examines-kim-reynolds-chuck-grassley-covid-pandemic-vaccine-september-2021/8368257002/

Any predictions?

[MT Treasurer]

You could argue that Grassley running again is good news for Democrats because the DSCC/ActBlue/Twitterverse would have thrown upwards of $40 million down the drain here had the race been "open." They might still do that to a lesser extent, but given that even serious outlets have produced entertaining takes like that....

Republican U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley leads Democrat Abby Finkenauer by 18 percentage points among likely voters in an early test of what could be a marquee matchup in the 2022 midterms.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/09/21/iowa-poll-chuck-grassley-leads-abby-finkenauer-in-test-possible-senate-match/8378103002/

...imagine how bad it would have gotten if he had retired. With INCUMBENT Grassley seeking another term, Rose/Resistance Twitter might now come to the conclusion that Republicans are favored in Iowa.

[MT Treasurer]

Yeah, not all wins for Iowa Democrats in 2018 were because muh wave year. In 2020, if you notice, they survived even as the Orange Man (Trump) swept the state by 8 points. Maybe people like Cindy Axne are in danger, but not a guy like Tom Miller. Maybe the race will feature a GOP incumbent, and it will probably be less of a landslide, but Tom Miller won't lose reelection when he's been in office for so long. He's the Democratic Chuck Grassley. The fact is that long tenure breeds crossover appeal in a small, rural state like Iowa, and that's what leads to Chuck Grassley (R) and Tom Miller (D) both winning in landslides regardless of year The race will still probably be contested in 2020, and I think it's unlikely Miller will break, say, 60%, but I think he'll make it by at least 5 points at the very least no matter what else. And maybe in a grand upset, Miller could lose. But there's absolutely nothing definitive or certain about that. I'd say it's just as likely that he wins by double digits that he loses (probably he'll win by the high single-digits or low double-digits). Rob Sand, State Auditor, is much more likely to lose in 2022, since he was just swept up in the Democratic wave of 2022. But as I said, people like Fitzgerald and Miller are wave-proof at this point.

EDIT: It seems that in 2014, when he actually faced an opponent, Miller won by just 12 points. So there may be some level of uncertainty as to his reelection in 2022, but it's still outrageous to assert he will definitely lose in 2022 or that the only reason he won in 2018 was because muh wave year.

K

[MT Treasurer]

Abby Finkenauer thinks low-propensity Trumpists will enable her to win without Trump on the ballot:

Republican lawmakers in Iowa will stand next to Donald Trump at his Des Moines rally this weekend. Former Rep. Abby Finkenauer – who is running for Senate in 2022 – says it’s because they know they can’t win without Donald Trump.

https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/as-trump-heads-to-rally-in-iowa-how-can-democrats-take-back-the-state-123141189598

(listen to this, it’s actually hilarious)

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/as-trump-heads-to-rally-in-iowa-how-can-democrats-take-back-the-state/vi-AAPimrl

[MT Treasurer]

Hopefully, Dem donors also agree with her and dumb millions of dollars on that race

I’m actually unironically considering the possibility that she’s an Atlas poster/browser who just launched her campaign for the memes. What she said in that MSNBC clip sounds like first-class parody of all the IA takes on this forum ("again, in 2022, Donald Trump isn’t on the ballot", "in 2018, three out of four Congressional districts went to Democrats", "Republicans know they can’t win without Donald Trump on the ballot", pushing January 6 as the most 'effective' line of attack against IA Republicans, etc.).

If you’re actually reading this thread, Abby, I love you and thank you so much for this.

[MT Treasurer]

This race is not close lol

Also, don’t be surprised if Selzer's final poll *suddenly* shows Grassley with a double-digit lead.