Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DC Al Fine]

Tl;dr I would once again like to remind everyone that Erin O'Toole has another party on his right flank.

So how safe would you say O'Toole's position is overall after the election?

I'd echo Miles 50/50 comment.

O'Toole is unpopular with the base and caucus but there isn't an obvious candidate to stick the knife in, much less replace him. My contacts tell me that the socons are nervous that O'Toole will be replaced by someone worse for us (e.g. Poillievre) and don't want to push for a change.

[DC Al Fine]

Who is the most extreme member of the Canadian Conservative Party?

Who is the MTG or Gohmert of the party? Do they give Erin O'Toole a hard time?

It's Cheryl Gallant and yes.

[DC Al Fine]

Re: O'Toole's leadership



He seems to have neutralized his opponents in caucus for now, but his approval with the base is quite weak (worse than Scheer's when he got forced out)... and that's with Tory voters. I suspect his approval figures are worse with actual Tory members

[DC Al Fine]

If I had to propose one, I think Patrick Brown would be a better Conservative Party leader. He's popular in precisely those demographics the Conservatives need to win, and he did moderate the PCPO while leader. His political comeback as Brampton mayor is going strong, and he's actively seeking the national political limelight with an open call to challenge Quebec's Bill 21. He'd be an excellent equivalent to David Cameron.

Patrick Brown isn't an option for oh so many reasons.

1. If Erin O'Toole is given the boot in 2022, it won't be a move even further to the left. The moderates want to keep O'Toole, it's the hardliners who want to replace him, so the energy won't be behind Brown.
2. He has MeToo baggage. He would argue that his name has been cleared, as no charges were filed and he won his lawsuit against CTV. But if you ask an average Ontarian what they know about Patrick Brown, it's very likely that the only thing they remember about him is a sexual harrassment scandal. That's no good.
3. Speaking of Ontario, he is on terrible terms with Ford and the PCPO. The CPC and PCPO may not be organizationally linked, but the PCPO base, donors, and insiders have heavy sway in what happens with the CPC. Without the support of Ontario Conservatives, he has an uphill battle.
4. The Western CPC base will be even less embracing of Brown. He's been a carbon tax supporter for years, and I don't mean an Erin O'Toole-style "carbon credits" scheme or something like that, he advocated for a flat out carbon tax. That alone will turn Alberta Tories against him.
5. Quebec has disproportionate power in picking the CPC leader because of the vote allocation system in leadership contests. Brown has been one of the most vocal opponents of Bill 21 in English Canada.

So yeah, someone like Brown would be an excellent choice in terms of making inroads in the GTA and maybe Metro Van, but it can't be him because he has too many enemies and too much baggage. He's a guy who pisses off Ontario Tories, Prairie Tories, Quebecers, the premiers of Canada's two largest provinces, and has a scandal in his CV that already cost him the leadership of a party.

Honestly Patrick Brown is the sort of leader you'd want if the goal was to make the PPC the official opposition

[DC Al Fine]

Stop criticizing Quebec’s ban on religious symbols, Erin O’Toole warns Conservative MPs in tense meeting

O'Toole needs to go.

[DC Al Fine]

Honest perspectives on your party from political opponents aren't always worthless - but the operative word in that is *honest*. Too often, they are transparent self-interested bad faith takes.

Agreed.

Ignorance is also a problem in these scenarios. Many progressives don't understand the Right's appeal or inner workings (which to be fair  I don't understand UK Labour or the Liberals that well either ), which can lead to poor analysis made in good faith.

E.g. It hasn't been as bad since the PPC took off this year, but I've seen lots of progressive pundits suggest that the Tories need to moderate* with zero consideration given to the possibility of right wing vote splitting, despite an extensive history of right wing break-away parties splitting the vote in this country.

*Also, why does "moderate" to newspaper and TV pundits always mean guns, carbon taxes, and pelvic issues, and never say, taxes and spending

[DC Al Fine]

That may be true, but lots of health experts calling for lockdowns.  Canadians tend to be very risk averse so even if no need for them, many will ask for one out of fear.  Off course varies by province and territory.  Nunavut is already in lockdown but so far no one else.

Ontario unlikely either since despite being extra cautious, Ford faces an election this coming June.  Left is split while right is largely united, but another lockdown could give further right wing parties 5-10% of popular vote and they get similar #'s to PPC federally in Ontario he is finished.  Federally CPC + PPC was 40.4% in Ontario, exact percentage Ford got in 2018 thus any split on right no matter how small is fatal.

Snip

Now Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Manitoba I could see going into lockdown.  Quebec already very close while Atlantic Canada has largely avoided COVID-19 to date so easy for people to freak out at current numbers despite high vaccine rates.

Ontario is locking down, closing indoor dining  gyms, going to remote learning etc, while Nova Scotia's head of Public Health said he cant justify a lockdown at current caseloads. I agreed with these sentiments when you posted them, so this swap took me completely by surprise.

There seems to be a pretty strong age gap developing to the new approach in Nova Scotia. Most younger people were grumbling about the prospect of another lockdown and were pleased to see the changed course. Meanwhile, I noticed on Facebook posts of COVID news articles, a lot of posters with gray hair were complaining that schools are still having in-person classes.

[DC Al Fine]

As expected, Iain Rankin has stepped down as leader of the Nova Scotia Liberal Party after his snap election call backfired.

[DC Al Fine]

Former NDP leader Alexa McDonough has died.

[DC Al Fine]

What is Trudeau doing?

Don’t give these rabble an inch. You need to respond swiftly, without any prior warning, and without any recourse.Confiscate their trucks with civil asset forfeiture, suspend their commercial driving licenses, and send in the Army to move the trucks out of the way. Then, round up and throw the ringleaders in jail, shut down any media outlets emboldening or supporting them, and track down any other dissenters.

Both civil forfeiture and driver licences are provincial powers and courts would look very badly on any political use of any of the solutions you proposed.

It is an unlawful assembly that openly attracts, supports, and emboldens domestic terrorist organizations, and allows them a place to gather. They don’t exactly hide the fact that they welcome and empower White supremacists among their ranks. It must be quelled swiftly on that basis alone.

I know a guy in textiles who can get you a good deal on brown shirts and jack boots. Let me know if you're interested.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/RobertFife/status/1488698708665507842 Need more be said LOL.

Guess the "it's TEH EVUL SOCONS" line didn't work.

[DC Al Fine]

Re: the next election

The Tories got a shade under 34% last time. Say they need to pick up six points to form government (probably a bit less than that, but suppose for argument sake).

Does anyone seriously believe that the Liberals have six points worth of white collar professional types, who were put off by pro-choice, pro-carbon tax, Liberal-gun-ban-accepting O'Toole, but would embrace the Tories if they moved just a little bit more left?

A significant chunk of those six points are going to have come from the PPC, and perhaps the Bloc Quebecois,  some sort of accomodation is going to have to be reached to win those voters over. Even among current Liberal/NDP voters, the path of least resistance is probably going to be in the voters concentrated in places like Northern Ontario and rural Newfoundland, not the Andrew Coyne types. Those voters aren't going to be won over with the sorts of things pundits usually think the Tories should do.

To be really blunt, if Poillievre becomes leader, I'd be more nervous for the party if he runs on a platform of fiscal orthodoxy, than if he does the sort of cultural conservative stuff pundits wring their hands over.

[DC Al Fine]

Erin O'Toole is officially out. 73 to 45.

Discuss with maps

[DC Al Fine]

73-45? Ouch.
Have we a geographic breakdown of who voted how?

It was a secret ballot, so we only have MP's public statements

Known O'Toole supporters:
Chris d'Entremont - West Nova
Eric Duncan - Stormant-Dundas-South Glengarry
Michelle Rempel - Calgary Nose Hill
Tim Uppal - Edmonton Mill Woods
Ron Liepert - Calgary Signal Hill
Karen Vecchio - Elgin Middlesex London

Known opponents
Garnett Genuis - Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan (also reportedly started the coup)
Bob Benzen - Calgary Heritage

We can make some educated guesses as well. Socons hated O'Toole, there's no way Poillievre didn't vote to remove him, etc etc.

[DC Al Fine]

73-45? Ouch.
Have we a geographic breakdown of who voted how?

It was a secret ballot, so we only have MP's public statements

Known O'Toole supporters:
Chris d'Entremont - West Nova
Eric Duncan - Stormant-Dundas-South Glengarry
Michelle Rempel - Calgary Nose Hill
Tim Uppal - Edmonton Mill Woods
Ron Liepert - Calgary Signal Hill
Karen Vecchio - Elgin Middlesex London

Known opponents
Garnett Genuis - Sherwood Park-Fort Saskatchewan (also reportedly started the coup)
Bob Benzen - Calgary Heritage

We can make some educated guesses as well. Socons hated O'Toole, there's no way Poillievre didn't vote to remove him, etc etc.

Fair to assume that Ontario and Atlantic Canada probably were hotbeds of O'Toole support?

Yeah, but it's more complicated than that. A decent chunk of the Calgary/Edmonton MP's probably backed O'Toole, and Ontario and New Brunswick have some notable socons.

[DC Al Fine]

How exactly do interim leader elections work in the Canadian Tories?

Caucus will get together and select an interim leader in the near future.

[DC Al Fine]

Guys, surely Trudeau isn't going to call *another* snap election given how the most recent one gave him a genuine fright.

Multiple recent polls have the Trudeau Liberals at sub-30%. Not exactly "call a snap election six months after the last one" territory.

[DC Al Fine]

Eh, there's a pretty simple explanation here. Tory sympathizers and lapsed members bought memberships, once a leadership race was underway.

Heck, I bought a membership yesterday

[DC Al Fine]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

Boundary changes are ongoing. New boundaries can't be used until seven months after they are passed, which is roughly April 2024 under current timelines. So it depends if/when the government falls.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1490798380708208646

There's one point against the "people who are mad about the truckers will flock to Trudeau!" theory

Agreed. No one is covering themselves in glory on this issue.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger's bi-weekly tracker asks several questions about the Freedom Convoy

It's a decidedly mixed bag.

About 1/3 of people support "the message the protests are conveying of no vaccine mandates and less public health measures".

About 2/3 consider the convoy a "selfish minority" (paraphrasing)

On the other side, approximately 45% each agree with:

"The Prime Minister and premiers share the blame for the protest in Ottawa because of their condescending attitude toward Canadians who disagree with vaccine mandates and lockdowns."

and

"I am vaccinated against COVID-19, but I do sympathize with the concerns and frustrations being voiced by people involved in the trucker protest in Ottawa."

[DC Al Fine]

A 2nd Liberal MP, Yves Robilliard has broken ranks to criticize Trudeau's handling of COVID, calling his approach "politicized" and " divisive" and saying that it "stigmatizes and divides people"

[DC Al Fine]

Must say I'm very pleased with this sudden outbreak of backbenchers on both sides of the aisle growing a spine and criticizing their leader.

[DC Al Fine]

No, whole cities are not being burned down in protest.  That is an outright lie.

Well, right wingers bought the myth of these new rules, since the vast majority of BLM protests didn't involve riots or otherwise illegal acts.

Beyond that, all 100% of these terrorists are blocking the streets of downtown Ottawa, impeding traffic and forcing businesses to close.  This, in itself, is subject to an injunction.

I find it more than a little odd that many of the same people who are praising Lightbound also criticized Prime Minister Trudeau for exercising his free speech rights in telling it like it is in regards to the Ottawa terrorists

Remarkably hypocriticial

[DC Al Fine]

Doug Ford has announced that he will remove the vaccine passport system from Ontario "very soon".