Counties Romney can flip from blue to red

[bgwah]

...Ignoring the wrong colors in the title...

for WA:

mostly likely-
Wahkiakum
Klickitat
Clark
Skamania

toss-up-
Whitman (college turnout hard to predict, I'd guess D if forced)
Cowlitz (traditionally D, been trending R. I'd probably still guess D.)
Island (traditionally R, trending D. I'd guess D).
Skagit (same as above)
Clallam (traditionally R, trending D... I'd guess R).
Mason (traditionally D, trending R... Probably would still guess D. Like Cowlitz, Romney isn't the right kind of R to take full advantage of the trend).
Spokane (lean R, narrow McCain. I expect Romney to do better than McCain so I'll keep this one at R, just worth mentioning since it's often close).

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

WV: McDowell, been trending away from the dems for awhile now and this may be the year it finally goes Republican

On the other hand, it's Romney. 2008 was a kneejerk reaction to a black man on the ticket (they voted >70% for every other Democrat running statewide, even more liberal ones). Romney is a horrible candidate for WV, and while he'll win it, it will be by a smaller margin; in a 2008 repeat it could be close.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

WV: McDowell, been trending away from the dems for awhile now and this may be the year it finally goes Republican

On the other hand, it's Romney. 2008 was a kneejerk reaction to a black man on the ticket (they voted >70% for every other Democrat running statewide, even more liberal ones). Romney is a horrible candidate for WV, and while he'll win it, it will be by a smaller margin; in a 2008 repeat it could be close.

Um, have you looked at WV polls? Obama was at 33% in PPP's last poll. Appalachia has had enough of socialism and liberal social engineering.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

They obviously hate Obama, but many also hate Romney enough that there will be a lot of nose-holding in November, even if it's not close.

[Beet]

Indiana - Spencer, Vanderburgh
Illinois - Every county Obama carried with under 50%
Nevada - Carson City
New Hampshire - Rockingham, Hillsborough, Belknap
Michigan - Every county Obama carried with under 50%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The most likely one in Minnesota is probably Pine. It's voted Dem every election since 1972 and prior to that every election since 1928, but demographic trends in it are not favorable, due to the exurban growth in the south and population loss in the north. It was pretty close in 2008, and Emmer took it in 2010. However Romney is a bad candidate for that part of the state so it might stick with the Dems another cycle, kind of tough to gauge.

After that you have Wantonwan, Marshall, Pennington and Murray as counties Obama no doubt overperformed in, and Olmsted and Washington as counties that Romney might have a huge improvement over any ticket that had Sarah Palin on it.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Pine seems like a typical stagnant blue-collar county--Minnesota, unlike WI, trended R possibly due to the convention being there. Given that Minnesota seems to have turned against Republicans and that Romney is a terrible candidate for the region, I'd say that Obama will hold it by arond a 51-46 margin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Pine seems like a typical stagnant blue-collar county

No it's not. The northern half might be, but the southern part has exurban growth like the counties to its south, and we all know which part has gained population and which has lost it (though of course it's no longer as severe as it was pre-housing bubble burst)

Minnesota, unlike WI, trended R possibly due to the convention being there.

Annoying a bunch of people in St. Paul for four days doesn't gain you votes nor is there any reason to believe it would outside of St. Paul which isn't exactly filled with swing voters. We were basically the only state where McCain outspent Obama in media and that's the most likely reason McCain didn't collapse as badly as he did elsewhere. In fact look at the trend map, the Fargo/Moorhead media market counties where this wasn't the case are obvious.

Given that Minnesota seems to have turned against Republicans and that Romney is a terrible candidate for the region, I'd say that Obama will hold it by arond a 51-46 margin.

True, as I noted.