Counties Romney can flip from blue to red

[5280]

What do you guys think? here are mine

CA - Ventura, San Bernardino, San Diego, Fresno, Butte, Stanislaus
CO - Broomfield, Jefferson, Alamosa
FL - Flagner, Jefferson
NC - Forsith, Wilson
NV - Carson City
OH - Sandusky, Ottawa
VA - Buckingham, Chesapeak, Montgomery

Add to the list if you can find them

[Oakvale]

I think there'll be plenty of counties that a Mitt Romney candidacy will flip from blue to red, yes.

[All Along The Watchtower]

San Diego? lol

[5280]

I think Bush won San Diego county in 2004 by 6%, Obama won it in 2008 with 11%.  It could flip again, but not sure since Romney doesn't have a military background and SD has a huge military turnout with the Naval base and the marine base north of there.

[argentarius]

I think Bush won San Diego county in 2004 by 6%, Obama won it in 2008 with 11%.  It could flip again.

I don't know much about San Diego, apparently it's a very nice city to live in, but judging by it's place on the map, I'm guessing there are a lot of hispanics there, which would explain the 17% swing. Romney will not swing hispanics back to him.

[Vosem]

I think there'll be plenty of counties that a Mitt Romney candidacy will flip from blue to red, yes.

There'll certainly be a few (there's just so many counties that there's always a few), but Romney seems on track to do significantly better than McCain.

[Fargobison]

There are plenty in North Dakota....Mountrail, Eddy, Trail, Nelson, Grand Forks, Cass, Towner, Ransom(maybe)

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

TX - Harris County

Obama barely won Harris County, first time in decades for a Democratic candidate.  Flipping back that county of 4+ million wouldn't be too surprising

[Brittain33]

TX - Harris County

Obama barely won Harris County, first time in decades for a Democratic candidate.  Flipping back that county of 4+ million wouldn't be too surprising

I would think demographic trends in Harris and Dallas County only point in one direction.

At least 10 counties in Michigan will flip easily. It's not just Romney's weak home state advantage, it's McCain's collapse in the state handing Obama a lot of close wins. Similarly, Obama had a lot of narrow wins in Wisconsin that could easily go the other way because even an awkward Mitt Romney was more electable there than a ticket with Sarah Palin on it. 

[Old Man Willow]

Isn't Romney expected to flip some Montana counties? I assume he's going to better than McCain.

[5280]

Isn't Romney expected to flip some Montana counties? I assume he's going to better than McCain.

Blaine, Cascade, Hill, Lake, Lewis and Clark, and Rosebud

[argentarius]

If Paul gets put on the ballot in Montana again then some counties may not flip.

[5280]

If Paul gets put on the ballot in Montana again then some counties may not flip.

You're absolutely right on that.

[The_Texas_Libertarian]

TX - Harris County

Obama barely won Harris County, first time in decades for a Democratic candidate.  Flipping back that county of 4+ million wouldn't be too surprising

I would think demographic trends in Harris and Dallas County only point in one direction.

At least 10 counties in Michigan will flip easily. It's not just Romney's weak home state advantage, it's McCain's collapse in the state handing Obama a lot of close wins. Similarly, Obama had a lot of narrow wins in Wisconsin that could easily go the other way because even an awkward Mitt Romney was more electable there than a ticket with Sarah Palin on it. 

Totally agree on the trends in Harris and Dallas, but Harris County was won by less than a 2 point margin.  Dallas County had a 15 point margin.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I don't know. I feel like Southern California in particular is an area where Obama probably hit his ceiling, like the 47% in Orange County, that he might not be able to replicate again. Then again, California might be trending so far left he could repeat that performance. I have no idea for sure.

[NVGonzalez]

NV - Carson City

Depending on some demographics and trends changes I say this county has a 60% of flipping back especially considering that Angle did win CC. I do not think that Obama will lose Washoe though with our dramatic increase of minorities especially my kind.

[Sbane]

I think Bush won San Diego county in 2004 by 6%, Obama won it in 2008 with 11%.  It could flip again.

I don't know much about San Diego, apparently it's a very nice city to live in, but judging by it's place on the map, I'm guessing there are a lot of hispanics there, which would explain the 17% swing. Romney will not swing hispanics back to him.

SD actually does not have as many Hispanics as you might imagine. I think it's only 30-32% Hispanic, which is a little bit less than OC. And the rest of Southern California as well. SD will likely trend slightly to Romney. If Romney wins by about 2 points, he should flip the county. Riverside very likely will flip in what I think is a realistic scenario (Obama wins by 4-5 points). Also Fresno and Stanislaus will as well. I don't expect either San Bernardino or San Diego to flip and the same with Merced and San Joaquin up north. Butte will flip in the northern Central Valley and perhaps Nevada as well.

[krazen1211]

PA: Chester, Berks, Bucks, Cambria, Northampton
NJ: Somerset
VA: Loudoun
OH: Montgomery, Hamilton

[tpfkaw]

Lower New England+NH counties in order of likelihood of winning, last county in the marginally winning scenario in italics.  Counties I'd currently consider him more likely than not to win in bold.  Counties I don't see him winning in any conceivable scenario (up to a Reagan-scale landslide) struck out.

CT: Litchfield, Fairfield, Windham, Tolland, New London, Middlesex, New Haven, Hartford
MA: Plymouth, Barnstable, Worcester, Essex, Norfolk, Hampden, Nantucket, Bristol, Middlesex, Dukes, Hampshire, Franklin, Berkshire, Suffolk
NH: Belknap, Rockingham, Hillsborough, Carroll, Merrimack, Coos, Sullivan, Stafford, Cheshire, Grafton
RI: Washington, Kent, Newport, Bristol, Providence

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Romney trends & swings will mostly be in affluent suburbia (like that one county in CT, maybe one or two SoCal counties, etc) and Deseret.

[BaldEagle1991]

TX - Harris County

Obama barely won Harris County, first time in decades for a Democratic candidate.  Flipping back that county of 4+ million wouldn't be too surprising

Drive in the neighborhoods of Houston and all you see are Obama 2012 signs and bumper stickers.

No not ever, even with the GOP dominated suburbs who are mainly upset over the Keystone Pipeline (oil industry), NASA cuts (space industry), Harris will still be blue mainly because of a growing northern-born and ethnic minority population and the GOP suburbs are not too happy with Mitt Romney.

[Brittain33]

TX - Harris County

Obama barely won Harris County, first time in decades for a Democratic candidate.  Flipping back that county of 4+ million wouldn't be too surprising

I would think demographic trends in Harris and Dallas County only point in one direction.

At least 10 counties in Michigan will flip easily. It's not just Romney's weak home state advantage, it's McCain's collapse in the state handing Obama a lot of close wins. Similarly, Obama had a lot of narrow wins in Wisconsin that could easily go the other way because even an awkward Mitt Romney was more electable there than a ticket with Sarah Palin on it. 

Totally agree on the trends in Harris and Dallas, but Harris County was won by less than a 2 point margin.  Dallas County had a 15 point margin.

I didn't realize Dallas was so much more Dem. Sorry for projecting a grouping of the two into you.

[Devils30]

WV: McDowell, been trending away from the dems for awhile now and this may be the year it finally goes Republican

[pbrower2a]

I think Bush won San Diego county in 2004 by 6%, Obama won it in 2008 with 11%.  It could flip again.

I don't know much about San Diego, apparently it's a very nice city to live in, but judging by it's place on the map, I'm guessing there are a lot of hispanics there, which would explain the 17% swing. Romney will not swing Hispanics back to him.

Much so. See also Monterrey County, California, a prosperous county with a majority-Hispanic population. The Republican Party is too anti-government to appeal to Hispanics who insist upon large expenditures on schools.

[TJ in Oregon]

OH:
More likely than not: Sandusky, Ottawa
Toss-ups: Lake, Hamilton, Montgomery, Stark, Wood, Jefferson, Tuscarawas, Belmont
Possible but not likely: Portage, Ashtabula, Erie, Monroe