Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Global Strategy Group, Nov. 1-5, 1500 RV (1-month change)

Approve 41 (-3)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 44 (-3)

Impeach Trump?

Yes 52 (nc)
No 41 (-2)

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has abused his power at any point as president?

Yes 62
No 33

Regardless of whether you support or oppose impeachment, do you think Donald Trump has committed a crime at any point as president?

Yes 54
No 38

I would like to have words with those people who think Trump has committed a crime as a president and don't want him impeached.

I'd bet it would go something like: "yeah, he committed crimes as a President, but it's too close to election season.  Let's vote him out at the ballot box." 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

MSNBC has talked on Morning Joe for 2nd and it will be 3rd hour this morning as some sort of breaking news NEW numbers from Morning Consult, which show trump for example approval of minus 13 in IA. These people are morons. Numbers are actualy from November 19th.

I love the MC numbers whenever they come out because they're so funny, their latest monthly survey has Trump approval at -7 in PA vs -13 in IA and -5 in OH. Trump is also at -6 in Nebraska according to MC. How is Trump's approval higher in Ohio than Nebraska or higher in Pennsylvania than Iowa, I guess MC would argue there's some kind Trump approval collapse going on in rural areas whereas he's holding up in the industrial areas of PA and OH.

Imagine if Trump collapses in rural middle America but hangs on in the Rust Belt.  Cue the "EC Maps No One Saw Coming", Annatar.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning Consult/Politico, Dec. 6-8, 1994 RV (2-week change)

Approve 39 (-1)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+1)

Support impeachment inquiry? Yes 49 (+1), No 42 (-1)

Impeach? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (nc)

Remove? Yes 50 (nc), No 41 (-1)

Slight slight uptick but no groundbreaking revolts from either side.  Looks about right. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1207650045836845056

Approval : 45/51
Impeachment : 48% against / 49% for

Lines up pretty well with the numbers everywhere else: a pretty equal share of voters either love impeachment or hate it. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

We will see what happens now that Christmas is over. It appears we are indeed starting the campaign in a Lean D environment. Is Trump still in trouble or will Republicans come home as Trump softens on trade? Is Trump beginning to grow on people or break their spirits? Are enough people able to get the raises (or at least the loans) they need to move to the next level in their life as the media says? Are Democrats really that socially or politically inept or have policies that unrealistic?

No joke, I think it's a messy mixture of all the items you mentioned. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

RCP: “Trump Job Approval Hits 2-Year High”, with their average at 45.3%

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Which is still pretty dismal for a President overseeing a pretty booming economy. 

Come back when his aggregate approval is actually in the majority and then you can boast.   

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I hope you guys aren't forgetting about the Trump thing when reporting these numbers.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1216005816710500352

Of course.  Full dissertations have been written about the "Trump Thing".

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Nice visualization:

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1217929031305310216

In the Electoral College, applying that ma(with ME-02 for Trump and NE-02 against him), Trump gets 182 EV to 356 for the Dem. Utah probably doesn’t vote Dem though so 350 EV for the Dem seems like the realistic ceiling, with a lot of close states.

Sounds about right.

It's a pretty high ceiling because it is, of course, important to bear in mind that there is likely a non-negligible sect of those who disapprove of President Trump that will still vote for him. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The very honorable Pollster of Emerson has a new data-point>>>>

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/national-2020-biden-and-sanders-battle-in-two-way-race-for-democratic-nomination


RV:

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 48 (-1)




Women vs Men:




As you probably already know, women votes depend more on average on whoever "society" thinks they should vote for. If women could resist these social norms and become more "selfish", Trump would be much more popular

(Or a sizable chunk of us just plain don't like him)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.
 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Can someone explain to me what odd math Quinnipiac is using to get a 43/52 overall rating? What was the composite? If Dems and Reps are basically equal in their approve/disapprove of Trump, and Independents are underwater by *15 points*, how is his approval only -9? Shouldn't it basically be -15? Unless they're # of Reps is way bigger or something?

 There are few real independent voters anymore. There are more Democrats than Republicans.  

Seems that you have a large portion of independents who say "oh, I'm a registered independent" but have voted for the same party for decades. 

I like to say that group is made up of two people: Those who claim to be "independent" because it makes them feel that they came up with their own ideas of how things should be and that one party agrees with them 90% of the time and one doesn't and those who are "independent" so as to move the Overton window in their direction by pretending that the side they end up voting for  is "more moderate" and the other side is unreasonable.

I'm almost certain there are those who like to claim they are "independent" because it makes them seem more nuanced.  And to all of my green avs here, this is not a shot at you.
 

There are those on here that do have genuinely "independent" views that are green or even yellow avs. There are those on here that don't. Both Republican Independents and Democrat Independents.

Then again, I'm likely the biggest RINO on here so -- what do I know?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.  

For as much talk as you hear about how impeachment will "doom the Dems" in 2020 and "America is seeing through this farce", it really hasn't moved the needle.  

Mind you, the Democrats are surely disappointed that there hasn't been much aggregate movement against Trump, but I'm skeptical of claims that Trump's approval will start surging any day now.

This idea that nothing sinks Trump, that nothing can touch him -- the opposite seems to be true as well.

As for the Senate, I believe Collins will survive.  But McSally is in a unique and handicapped position: Kelly can start off any attack ad with "She lost your vote in 2018.  So why is Martha McSally in the Senate?"

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So much for the Trump "surge".

If I am to guess the result of the impeachment process, it is that it is convincing people largely of what they believed beforehand.  Approval of the President somewhere between 38% and 43%  and disapproval slightly (but decisively and predictably!) above 50% is the norm.

Republicans are in poor shape for winning back the House, as the general ballot suggests much the same now as it did early in 2018. Republicans have only one easy pick-up in the Senate based on location (Doug Jones in Alabama) but plenty of potential losses in the Senate. I see Collins, Gardner, and McSalley as goners, and I cannot decide who makes the partisan split.  

For as much talk as you hear about how impeachment will "doom the Dems" in 2020 and "America is seeing through this farce", it really hasn't moved the needle.  

Mind you, the Democrats are surely disappointed that there hasn't been much aggregate movement against Trump, but I'm skeptical of claims that Trump's approval will start surging any day now.

This idea that nothing sinks Trump, that nothing can touch him -- the opposite seems to be true as well.

As for the Senate, I believe Collins will survive.  But McSally is in a unique and handicapped position: Kelly can start off any attack ad with "She lost your vote in 2018.  So why is Martha McSally in the Senate?"

It is a bit of straw man.

I think most people who was saying "doom the Dems" expected Trump's approval to go down under impeachment trial (= a lot of scrutiny) and went upp go upp after acquittal (= there have been nothing a real bad there). So it is actually a good news for Trump that his approval has not go down at all, possibly slightly upp.


Caveat 1. There haven't been that much polls. May be just noise.
Caveat 2. Most of these predictions was done before Bolton-thing, that is when there were no drama about the witnesses and quick acquittal was a likely outcome. Bolton has complicated the things a lot.


Still, on average I expect it help Trump and Senators. Removal is pretty unpopular in Battleground states.

Has there been any recent polls from battleground states?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Even if you adjust For the biased sample, it still likely would have been a decent poll for trump

I think it's pretty clear that Trump's numbers are slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) edging upwards.  He'll likely see a bit of a bump from the SOTU because it's one of the only forums where he acts "presidential". 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

JAN 16-29, 2020
B
Gallup
1,033 A



Approve 49 (+5 since JAN 2-15)
Disapprove 50 (-3)



Gallup's poll is a bit outdated, but >>>

The Jan. 16-29 poll was conducted in the midst of the Senate impeachment trial that will likely result in the president's acquittal. The poll finds 52% of Americans in favor of acquitting Trump and 46% in favor of convicting and removing him from office.

Acquit 52%
Remove 46%

This is really unreliable.

I would not ignore this poll. As I keep telling Atlas....nobody cares about Trump corruption, stupidity, impeachment, etc...

Politicians are narrowly constrained by economic fundamentals despite everything they do. 2020 cant be a landslide for Dems with a good economy and when people go and vote....they vote a general sense of well being about the economy completely oblivious to everything else going on.

When Joe Nonpolitical (who didn't vote in 2016 and is skeptical of swamp politicians) turns on FOX News and sees that the economy is doing well, sometimes that's enough to secure his vote.  

"The economy is good? President Trump must be doing something right, then."  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

The  Unskewing 2.0...



Guys, would you try this hard if the polls showed the opposite, like Trump going down under 40%?

I would have posted that tweet even if it was the other way around.  If you've read my posts for the last several years, you should know that I post polls and interesting items about polling regardless of which side they favor.

I don't know man, I really don't know. You seem to post a lot of polls, even if they were partially mentioned in the thread, bur nor Gallup, nor ABC/WaPo pollsters... Both are live Gold Standard, both showed Removal under water and Trump gaining momentum... 


With that said, yes, these polls were of course outlier'ish and likely to bounce back, but if the same polls that showed Trump at ~40% a year ago shows him now at ~47% it tells you something.

GeorgiaModerate is arguably one of the best posters when it comes to posting without injecting commentary. 

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning Consult/LX, Feb. 4-5, 2197 ADULTS (Aged 18-73), Online

Has the Senate impeachment trial made you:

A. Less likely to re-elect President Trump this year?
B. More likely to re-elect President Trump this year?
C. Neither more or less likely to re-elect President Trump this year?

Overall:

Less likely .............. 36%
More likely ............. 32%
Neither ................... 32%

Republicans

Less likely .............. 8%
More likely ............. 72%
Neither ................... 20%

Independents

Less likely .............. 31%
More likely .............. 22%
Neither .................... 47%

Democrats

Less likely ............... 68%
More likely ............... 5%
Neither ..................... 27%

Crosstabs here:  https://www.nbcwashington.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Impeachment-Crosstabs.pdf

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

So this poll reinforces that impeachment likely didn't change a lot of minds on President Trump.  People that were going to vote for him in November are just more excited to do so.  Those who are excited at the prospect of kicking him out of the White House seem just as fired up.  And while more surveyed Indies said that impeachment had made them LESS LIKELY to vote for President Trump by a nine-percent margin, a non-insignificant number answered that it made them MORE LIKELY to do the same.   But even amongst this prized group of voters, the same status-quo concept appears to be present in the 47% that answered NEITHER LESS OR MORE LIKELY to the question.  

Granted, this is just a single poll.  But I suspect that the numbers will come as a general disappointment to Democrats that were hoping impeachment would flip Trump-leaning voters to their side.  And for the Republicans, it seems that any sort of massive backlash against the Democrats hasn't materialized either.  Having said that, we are still early in the hard campaign season.  These numbers may change if and when impeachment re-enters the conversation later in the year.  

But overall, the numbers indicate what we already knew: the country is deeply divided along scorched partisan lines right now.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Interesting enough that none of Atlas Democrats is talking about the new "TheHill/HarrisX" Poll which pegs the Presidents JA at 49/51. The Hill isn't Trumps favorable Pollster.

The Economy added 225K Jobs in January far more compared to what Analysts were predicting.

I asked this again: Why the heck would you toss out a President with these kind of Job Numbers?

Because the economy isn’t the only thing that matters. Also his job numbers lag behind Obama’s who you b*tched about nonstop over petty things like tan suits and coffee salutes so you guys hypocrisy on this issue is duly noted

I want a total conservative Republican Caucus in the House & Senate, a Caucus who doesn't make the slightest of deals if the next President is a Democrat.

You already got that: it was called "The Tea Party".  And even at its peak, it likely cost the GOP Senate seats in Nevada and Delaware.  

Republicans are no different from Democrats in that they operate on a scale.  That strictly-conservative Republican may work well in that R+25 district, but he or she is too far to the right for that R+2 district.  Paul Gosar, for instance, plays well in Arizona's first district, but he'd be major deadweight in Pennsylvania's first district.  

Running ONLY the most severely ideological candidates may get you a more consistently-minded caucus, but at the expense of the quantity.  And in Congress, quantity is everything. 

You may not like GOP'ers such as myself, but shifting all the way to one end of the spectrum is a poor long-term plan.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

Seems to reinforce that Trump's approval rating is slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) ticking up, though it doesn't appear that he benefitted from any sort of post SOTU/post acquittal bump.
Polls this week will be somewhat telling.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A+ Golden Standard Monmouth University
February 6 to 9, 2020 with 902 adults
margin of error of +/- 3.3


Approval 44 (+1)
Disapproval 50 (-2)

RV:
44 (+1)
51 (-1)



Do you approve or disapprove of the Senate’s decision to acquit Donald Trump and not remove him from the presidency?

Approve   49%
Disapprove   47%


https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_021020/

It's probably a small sample, but they did not get enough 18-34 year olds in this poll if his approval is only -5 among that group.

Yeah that was the only glaring thing that stuck out to me.  I don't doubt that he has a solid base of support in people aged 35 and up.  But he lost the 18-34 demographic by around 18-21 points in 2016 and, from my observations as someone in that age-bracket, he hasn't inspired very much new support for himself there.  He'd have to make some drastic changes to get even within five points.   Then again, that's purely anecdotal on my part.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Unskewing 3.0

It's what we do

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I will bet you everything I have that the economy will be in the toilet by election day

Wishful (and kind of really mean towards the poors) thinking.

Most experts think, it will be modest, but still descent growth.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/02/what-method-implies-80-probability-of-recession-by-nov-2020

Cool, man, you've found a paper that implied that there were 70% that recession would be in 6 month from nov 2019.

that the implied recession probability in the six months after November 2019 is 70%, and for the 12 months after is 86%.

Like I said, 95% of experts think, that will be modest, but still descent growth.
2-percent'ish growth to be more specific.

I know it hurts, but that is what most experts predict  

So after the tax cut, it’s the same as Obama’s. Maybe that’ll be enough. It won’t be enough to take back the house unless Americans are completely done with the Democratic Party.

And if there's enough opposition to the Democrats that the House flips back to the GOP, control of the House will be the least of the Democrats' troubles.  

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

NBC/WSJ, Feb. 14-17, 900 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+1)
Disapprove 50 (-1)

Strongly approve 33 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-1)

Biden 52, Trump 44
Bloomberg 50, Trump 43
Sanders 50, Trump 46
Buttigieg 48, Trump 44
Klobuchar 48, Trump 45
(Warren vs Trump not polled)

Interesting that his approval has ticked up, those that "strongly approve" has ticked down, and those that "strongly disapprove" has ticked...down as well.  

Perhaps an indication that the respective "FOR vs. AGAINST" bases (sorry for the quotation mark overkill) are solidifying?