When will MI votes to the right of PA?
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Question: When will MI vote to the right of PA?
#1
2024		  
#2
2028		  
#3
2030s		  
#4
2040s		  
#5
not gonna happen in the foreseeable future		  
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Author Topic: When will MI votes to the right of PA?  (Read 963 times)
David Hume
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« on: April 12, 2021, 06:38:45 PM »
Between Philly and Pittsburgh, it's Alabama. In some sense the rural PA has pretty much maxed out for R. But for MI, it clearly hasn't. Detroit metro is declining, while Philly is not. Thus in the future it's highly likely that MI will vote to the right of PA. But when?
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ultraviolet
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« Reply #1 on: April 13, 2021, 01:14:07 PM »
« Edited: April 13, 2021, 01:37:00 PM by ultraviolet »
I expect it to in 2024. Michigan’s time as the bluest of the big three is over. I’m not going to underestimate rural areas’ ability to completely max out.
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2021, 09:27:36 PM »
Detroit is declining but so are rural counties. Grand Rapids metro is trending D and Oakland County still has positive population growth. Michigan is not as bleak for Dems as Wisconsin.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2021, 10:12:30 PM »
« Edited: April 15, 2021, 10:19:23 PM by Roll Roons »
Quote from: Devils30 on April 15, 2021, 09:27:36 PM
Detroit is declining but so are rural counties. Grand Rapids metro is trending D and Oakland County still has positive population growth. Michigan is not as bleak for Dems as Wisconsin.

Wisconsin also isn’t terrible for Democrats. Madison is growing a ton, Waukesha and Ozaukee trended D, and the Fox Valley will be perpetually swingy. It’ll be a hotly contested state for quite some time.
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David Hume
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« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2021, 09:26:59 AM »
Quote from: Devils30 on April 15, 2021, 09:27:36 PM
Detroit is declining but so are rural counties. Grand Rapids metro is trending D and Oakland County still has positive population growth. Michigan is not as bleak for Dems as Wisconsin.
how about comparing to PA?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2021, 12:03:02 PM »
Lol Cook standings have MI plus 3 and both WI and PA as plus2, it's gonna remain that way until Rs learn how to crack the blue wall, they haven't won since 2016
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sting in the rafters
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2021, 03:02:58 PM »
« Edited: April 16, 2021, 04:10:33 PM by 215 till I die »
Michigan has a lower conservative% than PA and a slightly larger black population. Those fundamentals lead me to have MI a touch to the left of PA.

The big question is turnout. PA’s always come down to which party can pump the base more, Ds still have the bigger base but obviously the advantage has shrunk due to Variable-T. Ds need to keep making inroads in the Harrisburg metro. Hopefully Joey/Casey on the ballot is enough to get good margins in Lehigh/Wyoming Valleys. Will be crucial as GOP turnout in Pennsyltucky could be heated again.


Likewise MI Dems continue to make inroads in the western side of the state? Don't know enough ab them.
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Chips
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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2021, 03:11:41 PM »
2024 maybe.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #8 on: April 16, 2021, 03:38:31 PM »
I'm guessing 2024, but I don't know.
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