Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[AtorBoltox]

FOX also did income on its non-exit poll thing, and here is what they have:

Under 25,000: Jones +24
25-50K: Jones +11
50-75K: Moore +5
75-100K: Moore +12
100-200K: Moore +16
200-250K: Jones +29
250K+: Jones +21

They also asked about a Strange-Jones race:
Strange 48
Jones 47

But, of course, take that with a grain of salt because things would have been so different, especially in terms of who showed up.

Don't let RINO Tom see these numbers

[NOVA Green]

It seems that certain people can't accept that their side can possibly lose without it being cheating:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

If you spent any time watching Fox News at all, you'd not be shocked in the slightest. They had anchors suggesting black people stole the 2008 election.

That's not particularly surprising, although a bit disgusting in the Modern Era, 53 years after we defeated the institutionalized White Supremacist Jim Crow rule in the deep South.

Not to do a moral equivalency type argument, but I still have a friend that claims that the 2004 election results in Ohio were hacked through the voting machines to cause W. to win reelection, despite all evidence to the contrary...

Totally irresponsible for news media outfits to be peddling false stories that challenge the integrity of the basic element of the ballot box, regardless of Partisan affiliation.

Most of us on Atlas know how SoS offices operate, and the County workers that do their jobs, and all of the checks and balances involved....

It's the *rigging of the game* designed to purge voters off the roles that is the biggest crime of all and striping people of their voting rights once again, all in the name of combating "voter fraud"

[junior chįmp]

GOP is done update:



2018 is gonna be a bloodbath fam

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

My opinion of Kushner has gone way up.

You know what else has gone up?

The number of Roy Moore's accusers

You know what else has gone up?

His polling numbers! And Dems can only cry about it! You got nothing. You lose. Trump. Karen Handel. The immigration ban. The embassy. And AL-Sen. It is all happening.

Roy Moore is soaring in the polls.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Great honer friends!

Lightweight Krazen is a choker!

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Not sure if this is real or not, but a couple of their other articles look like they aren't satire:

Nick Saban came in 3rd
http://dailysnark.com/nick-saban-came-3rd-place-alabama-senate-election-20k-votes/

Really don't think it's real. Saban did not get 96% of the write-in vote?

Yeah, I don't think this is real. They're also working on old numbers. Jones won by about 21,000 votes. I think Atlas would know if the write in totals per person had been released (and I'm pretty sure they will be). That being said, I figure Saban is good for at least 0.5% overall.

[Keep cool-idge]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

[jimrtex]

To reply to Kenobi's thing before I actually get some sleep: I'm not talking about the percentage chance thing or the margin which I've always found laughable enough to stick into the mode where it swings around all over the place because it amuses me - although notably they were always pointing in the right direction even if the impact was exaggerated while you, eh, called the election for the wrong man.  However the other bit of the model: the bit about what votes were remaining to be counted and what already had been counted were perfectly right in terms of general trend if not magnitude: and paying attention to that is what I think made those of us watching elsewhere feel pretty sure pretty early on that things were looking like a very close result but with Jones in front which is what we got.  The wild swings seems to have been because of turnout differentials more than anything else; at least that's what I thought at the time.  Again usually they do this with races where they have precinct level data which is a million times better but they did the best they could with what they had.

Your model caused you to make the wrong decision, which means that either its core principles are wrong; the assumptions that you based it on are wrong or that this election was incredibly odd and unusual.  I don't think that its the latter: indeed a fair few of us thought that it felt oddly similar the to Virginia Governors election: in terms of the fact that it seemed that Joneswas leading most of the night despite being behind until 90% of the votes had been counted.  So therefore it must be one of the first two: and after getting a good nights sleep you probably ought to have a close look at it.

Incidentally the only way that Moore can get a recount is if it closes within 0.5%: so he basically needs to find something like 14,000 votes with zero election day votes to be counted.  The provision that allows candidates to pay for a recount only seems to apply to State offices, and not Federal ones.

By the way; this was an election worth staying up until 6am for!

I happened to check the counties when Jones caught up (at around 86% of precincts reporting).

Baldwin 94%
Franklin 42%
Jefferson 73%
Madison 90%
Mobile 57%
Montgomery 49%
Shelby 63%
All others 100%

So you had 6 of the 7 largest counties still out (Tuscaloosa is 6th and was done). The Top 7 are Jefferson, Mobile, Madison, Montgomery, Shelby, Tuscaloosa, and Baldwin.

Franklin was the only outlier, and when I checked again a few minutes later it was 100%, while Baldwin, Jefferson, Montgomery, and Shelby were unchanged.

Madison had bumped from 90 to 95 and Mobile from 57 to 70.

If we project the results for the late votes based on the total votes (e.g. since Jefferson was at 73%, we take 27% of the final results and attribute them to the candidates), then Jones won the last to be reported votes by a 63.4% to 34.9% vote.

If we project after the changes for Franklin, Madison, and Mobile then it was 64.1% to 34.1%.

There was nothing wrong with Ben Kenobi's model other than sample bias. His 86% sample was not representative.

There was quite possibly a selection bias. Smaller counties are likely to have an older electorate because students go off to college elsewhere and don't come back if there are no jobs for their skills. And those who don't go to college may also leave if they can't find work. Older people can vote during the day. Also people can get home to vote after work in 15 minutes. If you come home after 45 minutes in traffic, you may need to rest before going out to vote. In smaller towns, someone may be able to vote at lunch or a slightly long coffee break. So there would be less chance of lines at closing time. Voting can be wrapped up at 7 pm. Since votes are counted on scanners, election judges might have to record a count at the polling place, but the reported count will take place at the county level when the cartridge or whatever voting device is stuck into the totalizing machine. There is a drive across town, and then maybe a wait in line as dozens of precincts wait in line. In a smaller county, this can be done much quicker.

And all of this assumes that there was not differential turnout. Each irregular black voter is worth 0.9 votes for Jones. All have heard of Trump. Each irregular white voter is worth 0.4 votes for Moore. And few will have heard of Schumer. The payback is much less for the white voter, and the trigger is higher.

[Dr. Arch]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not over 20,000, and they're not all going to Moore even if there are.

Nominate a decent human being next time if you want to have a chance at winning.

[Sestak]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

Not nearly enough. Moore is engaging in wishful thinking.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

[Brittain33]

Disappointed moore lost but now icespear maybe will finally shut up.

The reports going around are saying Moore is waiting on military ballots any idea how many there are?

I wonder how many military ballots are cast by the over 50s who make up Moore's base.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

SOMEONE TEACH ME HOW TO DOUGIE!!!

[Alabama_Indy10]

After Doug Jones’s victory speech:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b4A-CDWSnYc

[Dr. Arch]

After Doug Jones’s victory speech:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b4A-CDWSnYc

Legendary

[Holmes]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

NYT has a chart showing how the tally went (scroll down)

[Adam Griffin]

Isn't it what you'd expect though, when you go from R+28 to D+1.5?

Because that's about what you'd expect when you go from a 28% Republican win to a 1.5% Democratic win.

No offense, but you're essentially answering the question "why'd we win?" with "because we won".

[adrac]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

NYT has a chart showing how the tally went (scroll down)

I can't believe the needle only had Moore winning for 30 minutes, it felt like an eternity.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Isn't it what you'd expect though, when you go from R+28 to D+1.5?

Because that's about what you'd expect when you go from a 28% Republican win to a 1.5% Democratic win.

No offense, but you're essentially answering the question "why'd we win?" with "because we won".

Yeah, those comments seem a bit silly when you put them together.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

NYT has a chart showing how the tally went (scroll down)

I can't believe the needle only had Moore winning for 30 minutes, it felt like an eternity.

It really did...

[NOVA Green]

Why did Jones make inroads in heavily white areas of Alabama. In Jackson County in mountainous NE part of state he got 30% Hillary got 17%. Franklin county he got 29% Hillary got 18%. This is deeply conservative Alabama.

Northern Alabama was the last refuge of White Southern Democratic voters within the State...

Al Gore won Jackson County 51-47 in '00.

Al Gore lost Franklin County 43-55 in '00.

I mentioned on another thread, likely a polling related thread on 'Bama previously about the "Yellow Dawgs starting to come home" and how Northern 'Bama overall would likely determine the results of the 2017 AL-SEN special election....

Obviously there is a bit more room to grow between Ancestral 'Dems in small town and rural parts of Northern 'Bama, and especially considering the Generational voting gap in '17 between those voters <45 and those >45.

This is also the heartlands of the Tennessee Valley Authority, that was an FDR era project to provide flood control and hydro-electricity to the entire region.

Needless to say it also provided a ton a decent paying Union jobs at prevailing wages, and the voters of the region are well aware of the history of the TVA and the dramatic improvement in what was an extremely impoverished and underdeveloped region of Alabama.

There is no contradiction between being an Evangelical Christian and also believing in a more progressive and egalitarian distribution of wealth.

A ton of folks were praying in Alabama after Sunday services before the election, and many the Night before asking their God if in all moral conscience they could vote for the creep (Moore), write in an alternative candidate, vote for a Democrat that they might have some issues with on his Pro-Choice and Pro-LGBTQ positions, or just simply stay home and let God and the will of the voters sort it all out...

As I have mentioned elsewhere 40% of Alabama Whites do not self-identify as White Evangelicals, and it appears that Jones won their votes by some 20% margins.

Additionally, I suspect that Moore's Anti-Semitic statements that popped up from a couple Months back a few days before the election (Which his Wife likely reinforced on Election Eve), not to mention Romney jumping in, likely was a major contributing factor in this Election, as well as the more known items such as huge African-American, Youth turnout, not to mention major swings among Suburban 'Pubs and 'Pub leaning voters in the largest Metro Areas of the State....

[Anna Komnene]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

I think Nate Cohn's estimated vote tracker on NYT nearly gave me a heart attack a few times. It had jumped back and forth from about 50% chance Jones win to 60% chance Moore win that when it started looking better for Jones, I couldn't even feel confident about it! But when it was called was just straight euphoria.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I mentioned on another thread, likely a polling related thread on 'Bama previously about the "Yellow Dawgs starting to come home" and how Northern 'Bama overall would likely determine the results of the 2017 AL-SEN special election....

Obviously there is a bit more room to grow between Ancestral 'Dems in small town and rural parts of Northern 'Bama, and especially considering the Generational voting gap in '17 between those voters <45 and those >45.

This is also the heartlands of the Tennessee Valley Authority, that was an FDR era project to provide flood control and hydro-electricity to the entire region.

Needless to say it also provided a ton a decent paying Union jobs at prevailing wages, and the voters of the region are well aware of the history of the TVA and the dramatic improvement in what was an extremely impoverished and underdeveloped region of Alabama.

Well momma got sick and daddy got down
The county got the farm and they moved to town
Pappa got a job with the TVA
He bought a washing machine and then a Chevrolet

The understanding of the trends of the south from late 1990's to now, has to incorporate an understanding of the dying off of yellow dogs who lived through the Depression as children. This pushed the Republican white vote down ballot higher, as well as to solidify it for President, making Alabama a 62% Republican state as Baby Boomer Republicans became the dominant voting bloc.

And in understanding that, you then began to paint the picture of what the next twenty years looks like as Millennial whites become more dominant and more likely to turn out as they age.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Also a good time to point out that AL-05 (Northern Alabama) was represented by a Democrat until  2009.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wish I could have been off work so I could have seen the results as they came in.

The first returns were pro-Jones. Jefferson county was like 85% Jones, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Madison were >65% Jones. After about 20% reporting, Moore took the lead as the rural counties started reporting everything and Jones' counties were being slow. Montgomery and Dallas took forever. At one point Moore was 8% ahead. Then his counties all finished and what was remaining was all Jones counties, along with some Baldwin and Shelby. Jones slowly caught up and then overtook Moore. The last county to finish counting was Mobile.

NYT has a chart showing how the tally went (scroll down)

I can't believe the needle only had Moore winning for 30 minutes, it felt like an eternity.

That wasnt on who was winning the race at the time, but the probability of who was going to win the race when all the votes were counted.