ScottRasmussen Daily Tracking poll thread

[Mr. Morden]

https://scottrasmussen.com/headlines

Biden: 25% (-2)
Sanders: 17% (No Change)
Warren: 11% (No Change)
Harris: 8% (+1)
O'Rourke: 4% (+1)
Buttigieg: 3% (+1)
Booker: 3% (No Change)
Castro: 2% (No Change)

Also:
Yang 1%
Gabbard 1%
Steyer 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Ryan 1%
Williamson 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Gravel 1%
de Blasio 1%
Bennet 1%
Delaney, Inslee, Moulton, Bullock, Sestak, Messam 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Oh, good catch.  Today’s #’s (Aug. 4-7) are:

Biden 25%
Sanders 17%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Booker 3%
Castro 1%
Yang 1%
Steyer 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
de Blasio 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Inslee 1%
Ryan 1%
Williamson 1%
Bennet 1%
Delaney 1%
Moulton 1%
Gabbard 1%
Sestak, Messam, Bullock 0%

[Mr. Morden]

I wonder if it's just that when voters are reminded that other candidates exist (because of a big event like a debate) some of Biden's less committed supporters migrate to other candidates.  But as the debate fades from memory, Biden gains again.

[Mr. Morden]

8/9:

Joe Biden - 29% (+2)
Bernie Sanders - 15% (NC)
Elizabeth Warren - 8% (-1)
Kamala Harris - 6% (-1)
Pete Buttigieg - 4% (NC)

will add other numbers when the article is uploaded, only have those 5 headliners for now

Here’s the full release:

link

Biden 29%
Sanders 15%
Warren 8%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Booker 3%
Castro 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Yang 1%
Bennet 1%
Steyer 1%
Hickenlooper, Gravel, Messam, Ryan, Bullock, de Blasio, Sestak 0%

They also released #s for the week as a whole, so the crosstab subsamples  are reasonably large:

link

white:
Biden 27%
Sanders 13%
Warren 12%
Harris 6%

black:
Biden 37%
Sanders 15%
Harris 8%
Warren 6%

Hispanic:
Sanders 25%
Biden 16%
Warren 8%
Harris 5%

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the full numbers for Aug. 9-12:

link

Biden 30%
Sanders 16%
Warren 10%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 5%
O’Rourke 4%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Castro 1%
Gabbard 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Ryan 1%
Delaney 1%
Bennet 1%
Steyer 1%
Messam 1%
Inslee, de Blasio, Bullock, Williamson, Moulton, Sestak 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s Aug. 11-14:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQk2yljF5Ia5pxnu91watOfDsZDpi0PA-x3gu7iyN28bFg2tGJ42EGwDColF6wT57ge81N_OJxQpldj/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Biden 29%
Sanders 14%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%
O’Rourke 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Hickenlooper, Inslee, Williamson, Messam, Moulton, Bullock 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s Aug. 12-15:

link

Biden 28%
Sanders 14%
Warren 12%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Booker 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Hickenlooper 1%
Bennet 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Inslee, Williamson, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Bullock 0%

[Mr. Morden]

August 13-16:

link

Biden 27%
Sanders 16%
Warren 12%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, Moulton, Bullock 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s their weekly aggregate, covering Aug. 9-16:

link

Biden 29%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
etc.

Which again, has such a large sample size that crosstabs are more meaningful:

age 18-34:
Sanders 29%
Biden 15%
Warren 7%
O’Rourke 7%

age 65+:
Biden 42%
Warren 14%
Harris 8%
Sanders 5%

white:
Biden 28%
Warren 14%
Sanders 13%
Harris 7%

black:
Biden 41%
Sanders 14%
Harris 9%
Warren 7%

Hispanic:
Sanders 24%
Biden 18%
O’Rourke 9%
Harris 7%
Warren 7%

Midwest:
Biden 31%
Sanders 15%
Warren 14%

Northeast:
Biden 26%
Sanders 16%
Warren 12%

South:
Biden 31%
Sanders 13%
Warren 9%

West:
Biden 24%
Sanders 19%
Warren 11%

urban:
Biden 27%
Sanders 17%
Warren 9%

suburban:
Biden 29%
Sanders 14%
Warren 13%

rural:
Biden 32%
Sanders 16%
Warren 9%

[Mr. Morden]

On Monday, they also some numbers on 2-person head-to-head matchups, from interviews made from Aug. 16-18:

https://scottrasmussen.com/crosstabs-aug-16-18-two-day-totals/

Biden 44%
Sanders 38%

Biden 42%
Harris 38%

Warren 41%
Biden 39%

Sanders 42%
Harris 35%

Sanders 43%
Warren 37%

Harris 38%
Warren 33%

So yes, Warren loses to both Harris and Sanders, but Warren beats Biden, and Biden beats both Harris and Sanders.  Try to make sense out of that.

[Mr. Morden]

August 18-21:

link

Biden 28%
Sanders 17%
Warren 10%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 4%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Gabbard 1%
Inslee 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bullock 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Messam, Moulton, Bennet, de Blasio, Sestak 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Here’s their weekly aggregate, covering Aug. 16-23:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQSHcoPBuiYJPo9W_dHGVfBwV2XTs29fwcPR6bUJahrJDxJJPmg2j-5OdfhArvF0tOVVXbg0KofI109/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Biden 28%
Sanders 17%
Warren 10%
Harris 8%
O’Rourke 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Gabbard 1%
Inslee 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Messam, Moulton, Bennet, Sestak 0%

Which again, has such a large sample size that crosstabs are more meaningful:

age 18-34:
Sanders 31%
Biden 14%
Warren 9%

age 65+:
Biden 43%
Warren 11%
Sanders 7%

white:
Biden 29%
Sanders 13%
Warren 12%
Harris 7%

black:
Biden 33%
Sanders 14%
Harris 12%
Warren 7%

Hispanic:
Sanders 31%
Biden 19%
O’Rourke 8%
Warren 8%

Midwest:
Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Warren 12%

Northeast:
Biden 31%
Sanders 18%
Warren 11%

South:
Biden 30%
Sanders 13%
Warren 8%

West:
Biden 22%
Sanders 20%
Warren 13%

urban:
Biden 24%
Sanders 16%
Harris 10%
Warren 9%

suburban:
Biden 30%
Sanders 19%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%

rural:
Biden 29%
Sanders 16%
Warren 11%
Harris 5%

The crosstabs are about the same as last week, except Biden dropped from 41 to 33 among blacks and Sanders gained from 24 to 31 among Hispanics.

[Mr. Morden]

GOP crosstabs:

https://scottrasmussen.com/crosstabs-aug-23-26-19-4/

age 18-34:
Trump 58%
Walsh 12%
Weld 10%

age 65+:
Trump 83%
Walsh 2%
Weld 2%

Midwest:
Trump 76%
Walsh 6%
Weld 2%

Northeast:
Trump 69%
Weld 7%
Walsh 6%

South:
Trump 78%
Walsh 4%
Weld 3%

West:
Trump 77%
Walsh 5%
Weld 3%

Oh, and while the sample sizes here are very small (only 38 blacks in the GOP sample, for example), for fun, we also have:

black:
Trump 48%
Walsh 18%
Weld 9%

Hispanic:
Trump 65%
Weld 8%
Walsh 4%

[Mr. Morden]

The other fun crosstab is:

GOP primary voters who approve of the job Trump is doing as president:

Trump 87%
Walsh 3%
Weld 3%

GOP primary voters who disapprove of the job Trump is doing as president:

Walsh 20%
Trump 17%
Weld 11%

[Mr. Morden]

If you click on the ScottRasmussen homepage, there's a link with a headline that says today's top #s are:

https://scottrasmussen.com

Biden 31%
Sanders 14%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%

But then if you click on the link, it takes you to yesterday's numbers.

[Mr. Morden]

Well, the full week Aug. 23-30 numbers are out:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTP7hxNFW2jSZBPsPUap7osztMLtQXqg3zPCCIL63BBPho-PbPfyM_VvWb9t-qrKQB3Fdtztgc0b8T-/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Biden 31%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 3%
O’Rourke 3%
Booker 3%
Castro 2%
Yang 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Gillibrand 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Messam 0%

[Mr. Morden]

The full Aug. 27-30 #s are finally out:

https://scottrasmussen.com/daily-democratic-primary-updates/

Biden 31%
Sanders 14%
Warren 11%
Harris 7%
O’Rourke 4%
Buttigieg 3%
Booker 3%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Delaney 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Sestak 1%
Steyer 1%
Gillibrand, Messam 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs for the weeklong numbers:

age 18-34:
Sanders 27%
Biden 18%
Warren 7%

age 65+:
Biden 42%
Warren 15%
Sanders 6%

white:
Biden 32%
Warren 14%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 5%
Harris 5%

black:
Biden 38%
Sanders 16%
Harris 8%
Booker 6%
Warren 6%

Hispanic:
Sanders 25%
Biden 22%
O’Rourke 8%
Harris 6%
Warren 6%

Midwest:
Biden 32%
Sanders 14%
Warren 12%

Northeast:
Biden 32%
Sanders 15%
Warren 10%

South:
Biden 33%
Sanders 13%
Warren 10%

West:
Biden 28%
Sanders 17%
Warren 11%

urban:
Biden 29%
Sanders 17%
Warren 8%

suburban:
Biden 34%
Sanders 12%
Warren 12%

rural:
Biden 29%
Sanders 15%
Warren 11%

The biggest single shift in the crosstabs compared to last week was Sanders dropping from 19% to 12% in the suburbs.

[Mr. Morden]

There are seriously crosstabs for black Republicans? lol!

I guess they found all 38.

With such numbers one can only expect weird results. I can only wonder what the Hispanic numbers are.

What do you mean?  I posted those in the very post that Eraserhead was referencing:

Hispanic:
Trump 65%
Weld 8%
Walsh 4%

Or do you mean the number *of* Hispanic Republicans in the poll?  That number is 98.

[Mr. Morden]

Full #s:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRsRMq5qXalfIePpndGSvb4yueJ2hLZKoQVJct9K00eXKK8E-KSY2GcB2MDAFuUH6ytl6okXrh0OdMg/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Biden 28%
Sanders 18%
Warren 11%
Harris 5%
Buttigieg 5%
O’Rourke 3%
Gabbard 2%
Yang 2%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Messam, Sestak 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Great poll for Joe Biden

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1169039282297815043

Where are those #s coming from?  If you click on the link at the bottom of that tweet, it shows the same #s we posted yesterday, with Biden 28%, Sanders 18%?  Where do you get Biden 34% from?

[Mr. Morden]

The new headline numbers for Sept. 4th: https://scottrasmussen.com

say:

Biden 30%
Sanders 16%
Warren 12%

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the full Sept. 1-4 numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTE99AOa9thOYcbCYRwDlcfIeCWpqnoEZhswtKAYAibaJXaxIRjMp5Ut-SMMn34thTg_mnB7BYZ5YVx/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Biden 30%
Sanders 16%
Warren 12%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 5%
O’Rourke 3%
Yang 2%
Booker 1%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Messam, Bennet, Sestak 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Weekly #s, Aug. 30th - Sept. 6th:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vSTDGMU9a2-Y6TaI6C1FOzBfkeEMeFLOpu-AvSdNKhWtG26QI5FHS9S7pcRZG7UJjv1bu9MYqbyN-Qr/pubhtml/sheet?headers=false&gid=0

Biden 28%
Sanders 17%
Warren 13%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 5%
O’Rourke 3%
Booker 2%
Yang 2%
Castro 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Williamson 1%
Ryan 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
de Blasio 1%
Steyer 1%
Delaney, Messam, Sestak 0%

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs for the weekly #s:

age 18-34:
Sanders 29%
Biden 19%
Warren 8%

age 65+:
Biden 40%
Warren 17%
Sanders 7%

white:
Biden 28%
Warren 16%
Sanders 13%
Buttigieg 6%

black:
Biden 38%
Sanders 17%
Harris 7%
Warren 7%

Hispanic:
Sanders 28%
Biden 20%
O’Rourke 9%
Warren 9%

Midwest:
Biden 30%
Sanders 18%
Warren 12%

Northeast:
Biden 27%
Sanders 20%
Warren 12%

South:
Biden 30%
Sanders 15%
Warren 12%

West:
Biden 26%
Sanders 18%
Warren 14%

urban:
Biden 26%
Sanders 18%
Warren 11%

suburban:
Biden 30%
Sanders 16%
Warren 14%

rural:
Biden 28%
Sanders 20%
Warren 10%