This says it all in the Morning Consult poll
Among Independents: 34% approve, 59% disapprove
Among Independents: 30% Democrat, 29% Republican
The generic ballot at this point is more ridiculously misleading than it has been in any other election.
In November 2018, Trump's approval was -9, and Dems led in the generic ballot by 7-8 points. Now, Biden's approval is -12, and R's only lead by... 1? Ok Jan. For whatever reason, these people just do not want to say they'd rather vote Republican, unlike in 2017-2018 when they were perfectly comfortable saying they'd vote Democrat. I can understand with how much dems and the media are going in with their shaming and social desirability campaign, but it's fairly obvious to those of us who've seen this movie before that these people will break overwhelmingly one way. It's just a shame because the misleading polling is going to be used by political hacks to craft a false narrative.
Is it possible people really dislike Biden's presidency but aren't ready to hand the keys back to the Republicans?
These people probably do exist in small numbers, but the fact that they dislike Biden makes them less likely to turn out. We see this in the voting enthusiasm question, where 33% of conservatives, 26% of liberals, and 14% of moderates are extremely enthusiastic about voting in the midterm.
But on a separate issue, the poll claims that 28% of moderates are undecided, while only 9% of liberals and 8% of conservatives are undecided. Given the enthusiasm gap and the fact that liberals only make up ~25% of the general electorate, that means about 3% (at most) of the poll can be classified as Biden-disapproving liberals undecided on midterm choice. The other 14-15% still undecided are either moderates or conservatives, who are overwhelmingly Biden-disapproving independents
