PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/JohnFetterman/status/1347534306110009346?s=20
Fetterman is going for it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He's got a master of public policy from Harvard and comes from a rich family.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He's got a master of public policy from Harvard and comes from a rich family.

That synopsis is basically like skipping over the entirety of a novel only to read the last chapter.

I know about his effort in Braddock to revitalize the depressed town but I'm honestly worried he's going to feel patronizing towards the WWC areas people expect him to be strong in. Like the democrats want your vote so nominate a rich educated elite who larps like one of you, and his politics is pretty left-wing and out of line with the area.

It's like when they nominated Lollefer in Georgia to win back the suburban woman only to have it fall completely on their face. Partisan dems love Fetterman but I don't think he's got much strength among indepdents or republicans.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I saw a thumbnail image of Fetterman on YouTube earlier today, and his appearance fits the stereotype of a tough, no nonsense, blue-collar, WWC miner, construction worker, contractor, or factory worker. I don't know that much about his background. Is this why many seem to have such confidence in his capabilities as a candidate for federal or statewide office?

He's got a master of public policy from Harvard and comes from a rich family.

That synopsis is basically like skipping over the entirety of a novel only to read the last chapter.

I know about his effort in Braddock to revitalize the depressed town but I'm honestly worried he's going to feel patronizing towards the WWC areas people expect him to be strong in. Like the democrats want your vote so nominate a rich educated elite who larps like one of you, and his politics is pretty left-wing and out of line with the area.

It's like when they nominated Lollefer in Georgia to win back the suburban woman only to have it fall completely on their face. Partisan dems love Fetterman but I don't think he's got much strength among indepdents or republicans.

And this fear that he would be patronizing is based off of?

Listen man, ignoring the fact that Fetterman's family isn't rich to begin with (in fact the actual story of his parent's financial status is itself very interesting), having a degree from Harvard or other prestigious universities is not something typically thrown against a candidate or even really ostracized by the electorate.

I mean, look at the halls of congress and previous politicians. Harvard University on its own has a large number of alumni that include:
- Barack Obama
- Ben Sasse
- Tom Cotton
- Russ Feingold
- Al Franken
- Dan Sullivan (GOP Senator)
- Joe Sestak
and probably one of the more important ones in the context of this conversation, Pat Toomey. And that's just looking at a couple from Harvard.

In all honesty, this fear appears to be largely unfounded. Fetterman may flub up and be considered patronizing during the campaign, but nothing about his profile would suggest that voters would find him a fake.

Also, Fetterman as a "rich educated elite"? Really? Come on man. By this definition almost any candidate the Democrats run would be considered a "rich educated elite".

Based on the fact that he hasn't actually won a remotely competitive race in PA before, he won a primary where the vote was split 4 ways on the back of strong regional support in Pittsburgh and Western PA. He was carried by tom wolf to an easy election in 2018 given they ran on the same ticket and has had no other electoral experience

He's an online left-wingers with standard progressive democratic policies except some moderation on guns, with his opening campagin pitch being about racial injustice and DACA. He's got a lot of fans among people partisan democrats who will always vote blue no matter what but not much other signs of crossover support.

Frankly the idea that just his appearance is enough to win back WWC votes is stupid and similar to the fantasies republcian have about their own minoirty candidates able to get them to overperform among minoirty voters.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

It is absolutely silly to think Fetterman is “faking” populist credentials just because he went to Harvard. The guy went on to become Mayor of a small industrial city and did his damndest to help revitalize it. He has walked the walk both before and after going to Harvard. He’s not some Pete Buttigieg type who wants you to think he’s some genius with all the answers—he gets in the trenches for what he believes in, and he actually believes in what he talks about.

Ok what prevents the republican from sticking that messaging to him, run ads about his wealthy background and about his left-wing policies, how will he respond to the ads calling him a phony ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Ok what prevents the republican from sticking that messaging to him, run ads about his wealthy background and about his left-wing policies, how will he respond to the ads calling him a phony ?

He didn’t have a “wealthy” background. He grew up middle class and has always been middle class. He can respond by saying it was easier for a kid like him to get into Harvard back in the 80s because he didn’t have to worry about going into extreme debt or choosing between college and supporting his family because college has become prohibitively expensive for kids without actually rich parents. He can even talk about the white privilege afforded to kids who grow up middle class who can go to good schools but not minority students because of systemic racism. There, I just knocked out 2 of his main campaign talking points in response to one (dumb) attack ad.

yeah because mentioning white privilege is going to go down so well in the WWC areas he's strong in.

Also, like the man literally did not have an income while being mayor of Braddock and was entirely supported by family money.  Imagine the ads accusing him of being a trust-fund baby, let alone attacks on him creating a welfare state in Braddock by giving away houses and a whisper campagin against his wife for being an undocumented immigrant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gisele_Barreto_Fetterman
https://www.post-gazette.com/local/east/2015/12/18/Fetterman-s-finances-attract-attention/stories/201512180168

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I went to college in Boston and socialized quite a bit with folks at Harvard, and I’m genuinely confused by this “Harvard makes you out of touch with working people” idea. Granted it was quite some time ago, but I found virtually all of them to be genuinely good and well-meaning people, many from modest backgrounds who viewed their place at Harvard as being a big deal for their families and a major reason why they believed their futures would be brighter than their pasts.

I’m sure there were plenty of trust-fund children, legacy admissions, and students outright bribed in, and I’m sure that the cost of education/student loan nonsense of today has changed some things, but it’s broadly generalistic and out of touch in its own right to suggest that a Harvard education makes one unable to understand the issues of working families.

Politics is about perception not reality, Fetterman can be framed as an elitest using things like his Harvard education and reliance on family funds. His politics is also pretty left-wing and leaves him vulnerable to whisper campaigns.

I don't know why people are assuming he's a strong candidate in rural Pennsylvania other than his appearance. He won the LT governor primary when the vote was split between 3 eastern PA canidates.He has no other statewide success and mayor of Braddock was more a social experimenting/philantrophy experiment than something that shows his electoral strenght.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I went to college in Boston and socialized quite a bit with folks at Harvard, and I’m genuinely confused by this “Harvard makes you out of touch with working people” idea. Granted it was quite some time ago, but I found virtually all of them to be genuinely good and well-meaning people, many from modest backgrounds who viewed their place at Harvard as being a big deal for their families and a major reason why they believed their futures would be brighter than their pasts.

I’m sure there were plenty of trust-fund children, legacy admissions, and students outright bribed in, and I’m sure that the cost of education/student loan nonsense of today has changed some things, but it’s broadly generalistic and out of touch in its own right to suggest that a Harvard education makes one unable to understand the issues of working families.

Politics is about perception not reality, Fetterman can be framed as an elitest using things like his Harvard education and reliance on family funds. His politics is also pretty left-wing and leaves him vulnerable to whisper campaigns.

I don't know why people are assuming he's a strong candidate in rural Pennsylvania other than his appearance. He won the LT governor primary when the vote was split between 3 eastern PA canidates.He has no other statewide success and mayor of Braddock was more a social experimenting/philantrophy experiment than something that shows his electoral strenght.

If that's true, then Fetterman is clearly the one to benefit.

Yeah, if the supposed reality is that Fetterman's actually some rich elitist who got a Harvard education & was able to live without an income thanks to money from his rich family, then he's done a great f**king job thus far of ingraining this perception into all of our minds that he's just your run-of-the-mill tough, no-nonsense, blue-collar member of the WWC.

Are you an actual swing voter or somebody from rural PA who voted for Trump ? being loved among partisan democrats doesn't translte into direct appele to trump receptive rural areas of the pensyvania.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I went to college in Boston and socialized quite a bit with folks at Harvard, and I’m genuinely confused by this “Harvard makes you out of touch with working people” idea. Granted it was quite some time ago, but I found virtually all of them to be genuinely good and well-meaning people, many from modest backgrounds who viewed their place at Harvard as being a big deal for their families and a major reason why they believed their futures would be brighter than their pasts.

I’m sure there were plenty of trust-fund children, legacy admissions, and students outright bribed in, and I’m sure that the cost of education/student loan nonsense of today has changed some things, but it’s broadly generalistic and out of touch in its own right to suggest that a Harvard education makes one unable to understand the issues of working families.

Politics is about perception not reality, Fetterman can be framed as an elitest using things like his Harvard education and reliance on family funds. His politics is also pretty left-wing and leaves him vulnerable to whisper campaigns.

I want to rewind on this post again. LOL.

How the heck do you look at Fetterman and think Harvard-educated elitist? Most of politics, as you note, is optics and he just.... looks like a union dude. He physically is just so different from every other Senator. He does not give off any indication of being some trust fund baby.

PS. This is going to sound elitist of me, but he didn't go to Harvard for undergrad, so it's kind of whatever. The MPP isn't as susceptible to the bribe your way in vibes of undergrad.

Physical appearance don't matter, this is the same fallacy as republicans thinking their minority candidates will overperform with that demographics. His Harvard degrees is an opening the gop can use to frame him as a paternalist elitest faking a working class image to get elected

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

for all the Fetterman fans, explain the thought process of somebody who voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 but is likley to support Fetterman ?. Preferably without claiming they're low information or #populists.

Magnetic campaigners with daring visions is how you win back disaffected voters.

Besides, didn't Trump lose PA in 2020?

Again he's loved by democrats, how does he win indedeptns and republican suburbanites turned off by trump?(without which Biden would not have won)>

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Honestly, the idea that Fetterman would over-perform Generic D with Obama-Trump voters is starting to feel more and more like wishful thinking.  It kinda reminds me of people who thought Bernie would've been our best shot at flipping states like WI, MI, and PA in 2020.  

Cartwright and - albeit to a lesser degree - Lamb have records of winning tough districts and over-performing (Lamb did so in the special and 2018, Cartwright over-performed Biden quite impressively by winning re-election by ~4% in a 2020 Trump district).  

Fetterman is basically just a vocally left-wing dude with a beard and tattoos who has never won a GE in his own right for anything above Braddock Mayor and only won his first primary for LG b/c he was the only non-eastern PA candidate in a race with 3-4 major eastern PA candidates.  

If winning back WWC Obama-Trump voters were that easy, Democrats would be running Fetterman clones everywhere, but there's really no reason to assume having tattoos and a beard is the secret sauce.  I wish it was because, ideologically speaking, Fetterman is easily the best of our potential candidates here.  However, we also need to win the GE in a Biden midterm and I've yet to see any compelling evidence to support the assertions that Fetterman has any special appeal with WWC voters the way Cartwright (and *maybe* Lamb) does or in the Philly burbs the way Shapiro does.  

Democrats have run candidates who've talked about working class issues since time immemorial in those areas. They simply haven't won as their cultural identity is out of step with the democratic party and running candidates talking about those issues simply isn't going to get them back to party. Especialy when your run on an incredibly left-wing platform, the theory that left-wing populism is the key to winning those areas back was found to almost completely flawed in 2020 election as left-wing candidates fell flat on there face in these areas.

I like Fetterman, I just think everyone is overestimating the success he'll have as a senatorial canidate.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

This is just a small taste of whats coming, they'll destroy the man.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

Remember he's still undefined, they'll be running ads in WWC communities slamming him for being pro-open borders, woke and from a rich family allowing with accusing him of dishoney in his image

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

Are you really going to tell me with a straight face that the first guy is more in touch with the average Pennsylvanian or whatever? Costello could win but it won't be because he successfully paints Fetterman as a coastal elitist lol

Not wearing a suit doesn't make you in touch.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

See they've already begun messaging against Fetterman to paint him as an out of touch elitest.

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1361434448525463555?s=19

3+ hours & only 63 likes? I'm already shaking in my boots because of just how effective this messaging is proving to be.

(/s if it wasn't painfully obvious)

Remember he's still undefined, they'll be running ads in WWC communities slamming him for being pro-open borders, woke and from a rich family allowing with accusing him of dishoney in his image

Everybody on Atlas: "Fetterman has cultivated an image of somebody in touch with the concerns of WWC communities."

IBNU: "bUt He'S uNdEfInEd"

He has a reputation among partisan democrats, nobody else knows who he is beyond the funny looking guy they sometimes see near tom wolf.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/kasie/status/1361267708214587395?s=20

Ugh. This bozo. Guess he's worried about getting drawn out.

I mean, he’d probably be a stronger candidate than Fetterman tbf.

We’ve seen time and time again that running to the center in tough races is not a safe strategy. Lamb is uninspiring and lacks substance. What does he have over Fetterman (or Cartwright) in terms of appeal to working class voters or POC?

He's got the track record of winning their votes compared to Fetterman who has never been tested.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

No matter how you feel about Kenyatta, you have to appreciate the gift of someone who's willing to con Blue MAGA into supporting a progressive.

lol it's amazing that somebody who was a literal Biden delegate to the DNC and enrosde biden on day 1 is getting so much rose twitter support.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

It's a shame he never ran for president so we'll never know how we he performed in Pennsylvania. He would have probably lost by 10 points if he had.

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Obama ran in very blue Illinois against freaking Alan Keyes. Something tells me Kenyatta won’t have that luxury in a much less blue PA. He would be an incredible risky, and I would say stupid, nominee in a likely 2022 election environment. “But he’s progressive and can boost youth an minority turnout” (just like Andrew Gilliam who did neither of those things in a much better political environment). I’ll take Fetterman who is “progressive” but maybe can con enough people with the Everyman schtick or some moderate hero who can win. People need to realize issue positions don’t mean squat to voters who don’t live in a bubble online. Style, winning, and power are all that matter in politics.

Yeah, he ran a race anywhere except a deep blue stronghold, all those rural democrats would have never voted for him. Unlike Hillary Clinton who would have won the state in a landslide through #populism.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Pennsylvania is substantislly more republican, then Illinois, and you know that. Biden, who  was born there (Scranton, not Philly...), is white, straight, and so on, won it by relatively small margin... So, your irony is useless here..

It's a shame he never ran for president so we'll never know how we he performed in Pennsylvania. He would have probably lost by 10 points if he had.

Gonna go out on a limb and say a lot of the Cartwright support comes from people who haven't heard the man speak. Great rep, but not exactly bursting with charisma. Fetterman and Kenyatta, particularly Fetterman, would be better options.

Surely - not Kenyatta. Black, gay, from Philadelphia..... Almost any Republican candidate will crush him, and you may get some much worse Senator, then Toomey,

Yeah these kinds of candidates never win, remember how the democrats blew a senate race back in Illinois in 2004. Obama  Black, Not African American, Muslim Sounding Name, From Chicago. Almost every republican will crush him.

Obama ran in very blue Illinois against freaking Alan Keyes. Something tells me Kenyatta won’t have that luxury in a much less blue PA. He would be an incredible risky, and I would say stupid, nominee in a likely 2022 election environment. “But he’s progressive and can boost youth an minority turnout” (just like Andrew Gilliam who did neither of those things in a much better political environment). I’ll take Fetterman who is “progressive” but maybe can con enough people with the Everyman schtick or some moderate hero who can win. People need to realize issue positions don’t mean squat to voters who don’t live in a bubble online. Style, winning, and power are all that matter in politics.

Yeah, he ran a race anywhere except a deep blue stronghold, all those rural democrats would have never voted for him. Unlike Hillary Clinton who would have won the state in a landslide through #populism.

It's interesting to see utter lack of REAL arguments, but lot of desire to argue even knowing that other side is righ, and you are not...

Your argument is that he won't win in PA because he's black, gay and from philidaelphia. I've pointed out that candidates with similar hindarnces have won the state by huge margins.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ByChrisBrennan/status/1377602739778289664
Fetterman Get's an Endorsment.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I wonder what Fetterman/his allies offered him.  I mean, the dude was presumably bought off somehow.

Fetterman does sit on the Board of Pardons...

Ok yeah that's seems like a huge conflict of interestes, he needs to recuse himself from that like asap.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Costello is leaning against running.

Would be hilarious for all his posturing and attention seeking on Twitter to amount to him not even running.

I remember somebody saying he's a sad-case, spends all this time sh**t-posting on twitter insisting he's a magical canidate who would bring back all the suburbanites but retired in 2018 rather than face an actualy competitve election.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Fetterman is a Randy Bryce 2.0, a carciture of a working class democrat that all metropolitan democrats think is exactly what they need to win back rural and working class areas due to this aesthetics despite his policy and rethoric being indistrigushable from a normal progressive. and are then suprised when he flops among those voters.

Fetterman's main issue seems to be legal weed which while broadly popular isn't really an important issue that will allow him to make gains among trump voters. He has never run in actual competitive election beyond his LG primary where he was the sole western PA canidate against 4 philly canidates and his braddock mayor primary.  Braddock is a town that gave Joe Biden 90% of their vote, so it's hardly any indication of cross-over support.

Connor Lamb on the other hand flipped a trump +20% district against a fairly normal repubclain candidate and won another Trump district by double digits in 2018 an incredibly strong perfomance. Even in 2020 his vote share was higher than Biden showing proof that he is able to win over trump and non-democratic voters, despite his margin being lower due to his republcian opponent outperforming trump.