Can Democrats count on permanently high African-American turnout? (user search)
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  Can Democrats count on permanently high African-American turnout? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Can Democrats count on permanently high African-American turnout?  (Read 4991 times)
hopper
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« on: December 21, 2014, 08:17:24 PM »

Maybe in select states like GA, and MI, where Atlanta, and Detroit  are in those states respectively but nationally no. Why? Because according to Pew Research Blacks will stay at their current population rate of making up 13% of the US Population in 2050 which is their population rate now of the US population.

Ohio for example Obama only beat Romney by 1% point with Black Turnout being at 15% but  Ohio's Black Population is only 12%. So still a tough state to hold for the Dems to win even with record Black Turnout in the state.
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hopper
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2014, 08:26:25 PM »

I think so. The bigger question is what will happen with the Asian and Hispanic turnout in the near and midterm future. Will it remain as abysmally low as where it is today or will it slowly start to increase and at least cut the gap somewhat to the much higher black and white turnout? Hispanics have so much to gain from a higher turnout (immigration reform, fear of deportation for family and friends, higher minimum wage, social security, health care, education and a more human foreign policy main among these) and Asians are on average easily the best educated and highest earners of any demographic group, so I think these two factors will help both groups with increasing its turnouts over the span of the next 10-20-30 years. It will be a somewhat slow, yet inevitable process, I think.
Asian Turnout was like 3% of the electorate in 2012 I think and they make up 5% of the US Population. That's not low turnout for an ethnic group in terms of what  % they make up of the US Population.

Hispanic turnout you have might have a point but some Hispanics are too young to vote or they are here illegally.
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hopper
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2014, 08:34:06 PM »

At least for the next 20+ years? It seems like they increasingly can, considering the way that voting in GA and NC has been going this year.
No the Black Vote is not enough to push the Dems over the top in NC. Its the Asian and Hispanic Vote that put the Dems over the top in NC in 2008. Maybe even White Moderates push the Dems over the top in 2008 too in NC.
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hopper
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Posts: 3,414
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« Reply #3 on: December 24, 2014, 06:52:45 PM »

I forgot too the Black Vote is huge in Maryland.
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hopper
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Posts: 3,414
United States


« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2015, 12:33:39 AM »

Cory Booker seems like a fairly likely future POTUS, IMO.
Maybe.
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