Alberta election 2023

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP candidate (soon to be nominated) in Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo is Tanika Chiasson, a Suncor laboratory technician and former UNIFOR national representative and union organizer. It's kind of interesting that many workers in the oil patch are union members but that doesn't help the NDP even come close to winning there.

The extent to which unionized workers support the NDP has always been somewhat overstated. An EKOS poll in 2015 found that 23% of unionized Canadians intended to vote NDP in the next federal election, compared 19% of Canadians who intended to vote NDP in general. The percentage of Liberal support was 33% amongst unionized Canadians and 32% amongst Canadians in general and the percentage of Conservative support was 26% amongst unionized Canadians and 34% of Canadians in general. It seems like union members are not a monolith and have views as diverse as any bloc of voters.
https://www.ipolitics.ca/news/polls-theres-a-lot-of-tory-blue-on-union-workers-collars-siekierski

What this likely means is that the NDP needs to expand its base to more than just narrow interest groups such as unions and the insular & estoric hard-left, but it doesn't seem to be willing to do that for ideological reasons.

I don't dispute any of that, but union workers tend to be more supportive of the NDP at the provincial than federal level I think due to labour laws mostly being provincial in Canada. Only federally regulated industries are subject to federal labour laws.

You can look at how the provincial NDP has historically done about 5% or so better than their federal counterparts (25% of the vote or so compared to 20%) even though that province is a similar 3 party system.

Edit to add: on reflection I don't fully agree with that description of the NDP coalition. The NDP is a coalition of union members, (left wing) social activists and academics. Is that any less broad a coalition than the federal Conservative Party which is a coalition of small business owners (though Canadian small business owners aren't as right wing as those in the U.S), self interested conspiratorial types (global warming deniers...), and other aggrieved individuals.

IMO, Conservatives have a much larger base in the country. The Prairies, or at least Alberta and Saskatchewan, are consistently CPC voting - you have very few parts of Canada with a similar population that are consistently NDP voting (at the federal level). The Prairies can be assumed to vote for the Tories because of the resource sector.

Conservative voters in Ontario likely vote that way for the reasons you mentioned - small business owners, some people who are self-interested for whatever reasons. Other people that vote CPC in Ontario are suburbanites concerned about budgets and crime and in rural areas in ON and all over the country, gun owners are also a somewhat significant part of the CPC base. The socially conservative vote is a factor as well. In the Atlantic provinces, many Conservative voters vote that way for reasons similar to those in the Prairies (resource sector).

Anyway, the NDP doesn't have as much of a loyal base. The most loyal people that the NDP has are places with high rates of unionization, but that includes Hamilton, Windsor and a few other cities with roughly 500,000 people or fewer. Larger cities like Toronto, Vancouver tend to switch between NDP and Liberal, NDP used to be popular in Quebec roughly a decade ago but not as much anymore.

The NDP needs to increase its base from simply people in communities with high rates of unionization (Hamilton, Windsor, etc al) and swing Lib-NDP voters in Toronto. They need a region of the country they can call their consistent base. As I mentioned, the Alberta NDP is a great example of how this can be done, but the NDP in other provinces are unlikely to reproduce this strategy because they are always expected to be on the left wing of the political spectrum regardless of circumstances or other considerations.

The Federal Liberal Party gets all the support you're referring to at the federal level and a good deal of those who voted P.C in Ontario in 2018 and 2022.

It's hard to see the NDP expanding its base federally as long as the Federal Liberals are there and are the far more enduring brand. If anything, urban NDP ridings federally tend to be trending Liberal and the Northern ridings in Manitoba and Ontaro held by the NDP at the Federal level tend to be trending Liberal or becoming three way races. The remaining NDP base in the Kootenays, in the North West and on Northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia tend to be competitive with the Conservatives.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

In a weird way, it could actually benefit Poilievre and hurt Trudeau is Notley and the NDP win in Alberta. Danielle Smith is a useful foil for the federal Liberals and she is also a constant embarrassment to the federal CPC brand with her constantly saying and doing crazy things that cause "brand contamination". If she eeks out a win she will likely be ridiculously unpopular by the time the next federal election rolls around and many people may be nervous about a Poilievre-Smith "axis of evil". In contrast if the NDP wins, all of that is off the table

Oh yeah, big time. I've been thinking this for a while too. Because if the UCP wins this election (and haven't thrown Smith out by 2025, because the UCP coalition is extremely contentious and there's some very obvious bitterness towards her within the ranks), Trudeau will make her an election issue. He did it with Ford, he did it with Kenney, he'll do it with Smith. Poilievre is naturally combative, and I'm usually defensive of that. In the current environment, it's an asset when it comes to things like the economy, housing, crime, China, etc where Trudeau has low approvals. But the double-edged sword is that it's almost too easy to goad him into an unwinnable fight, and Danielle Smith is one of those.

As for how much it matters, I don't think it really matters as far as Alberta is concerned. At most, the CPC might lose a couple more seats in Edmonton, big deal. The risk is more in the rest of the country, where Trudeau will try to consolidate and boost progressive turnout by associating Poilievre with the crazy lady from Alberta.

If the NDP wins, then none of this matters. In Alberta it probably helps the CPC in the small handful of seats where they need any help in the first place, and in the rest of the country, it won't make any difference. If anything, it might give a slight jolt of momentum for the federal NDP (I know, it didn't really pan out for Mulcair, but it's possible), and that's bad news for the Liberals.

So yeah, tinfoil hat on, maybe Trudeau the Liberal leader does want Smith to win. Trudeau the Prime Minister would still much rather have Notley across the table though.

[adma]

It's hard to see the NDP expanding its base federally as long as the Federal Liberals are there and are the far more enduring brand. If anything, urban NDP ridings federally tend to be trending Liberal and the Northern ridings in Manitoba and Ontaro held by the NDP at the Federal level tend to be trending Liberal or becoming three way races. The remaining NDP base in the Kootenays, in the North West and on Northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia tend to be competitive with the Conservatives.

Are a lot of these really, clearly "trending Liberal", though?  It might even be argued that past federal NDP support (esp. before the Audrey/Alexa 90s drought) was *overrated*, and Lib support *underrated*--that is, the firewall was always there, and the NDP always had that UK Liberal/Lib Dem stigma of being an awkward third leg of a party with a knack for prevailing in weird 3-way circumstances or making left-field advances in byelections.  Like in Toronto, Davenport's now the most Lib-NDP supermarginal riding in the city; but pre-Y2K, it was nuclear ethno-Liberal under Charles Caccia--and Parkdale-High Park, once more of a Lib/Tory swinger, is now likewise Lib-NDP marginal (more generically, the collapse of the PCs and the attendant "Red Tory" base has enhanced such Lib/NDP-race urban impressions).  *Montreal*, of all places, seems to be a place where the NDP's trended promisingly upward even w/o the crutch of Jack-mania--though yes, the Liberal brand in Montreal is notoriously hard to budge (one thing that helps the NDP in Montreal is that as it's chased the CAQ electorate, the Bloc's no longer the "urban left-proxy" option it once was).  And when it comes to Northern Ontario, while much of it is still *held* by the Liberals, it isn't exactly *trending* in that direction--if anything, the trends are more in the *Conservative* direction, and particularly in non-incumbent circumstances more at Liberal than NDP expense (Algoma-Manitoulin, once the political home of Mike Pearson, is now NDP w/Libs a third-party force).

"Trending" is not the same as "digging in" (i.e. "give up, NDP; you've never won, you never will").  Justin's leadership *re-validated* the Liberal option in '15 after a dark decade; but you can't say it snowballed into a trend, and most of the incremental NDP support shed post-2015 tokenly related to loss of incumbent advantage (particularly in post-Orange Crush Quebec).

Returning to the subject matter: it's not that Fort McMurray *couldn't* be NDP-viable, but any such potential in '95 was kneecapped by its being Brian Jean's hometown.  Thus the "anti-PC" impulse had a viable native-son provincial-leader alternative, and the need to swing with the Notleymania flow was deemed redundant...

[RFK 2024]

Early forecast using poll averages from March, assuming no error.

UCP 45% (47 seats)
NDP 44% (40 seats)
Alberta 4%
Liberal 2%
WIP 2%

Competitive seats:

Calgary-Acadia: +1 UCP
Calgary-Beddington: +1 NDP
Calgary-Bow: +3 UCP
Calgary-Cross: +2 NDP
Calgary-East: +1 NDP
Calgary-Edgemont: +0.5 UCP
Calgary-Elbow: +1 UCP
Calgary-Foothills: +6 UCP
Calgary-Glenmore: +5 UCP
Calgary-North: +5 UCP
Calgary-North East: +5 NDP
Calgary-North West: +6 UCP
Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville: +0.1 NDP
Leduc-Beaumont: +7 UCP
Lesser Slave Lake: +3 NDP
Morinville-St. Albert: +7 NDP
Red Deer-South: +10 UCP
Spruce Grove-Stony Plain: +6 UCP
Strathcona-Sherwood Park: +3 NDP

All others likely/safe for respective candidates.

Looks like it's a near 50-50 tossup atm.  The final result lies solely on who does well in Calgary.

[Хahar 🤔]

Loath as I am to distract the Ontarians from their riveting discussion of dynamics in Ontario for the forthcoming federal election, I would suggest that maybe they can do that in another thread rather than making me think that there's actual discussion of the Alberta election every time I see there's a new post here.

Rajan Sawhney, who had previously announced that she would not be contesting her seat of Calgary-North East and would leave the legislature, has instead been adopted as the UCP candidate for Calgary-North West. Unlike her current seat, this new seat isn't necessarily an assured NDP gain—in 2019 the UCP candidate, frontbencher Sonya Savage, won it by 25 points with 9% going to the Alberta Party candidate—so Sawhney could end up in a situation where she's the most prominent member of the opposition benches not aligned with the far right.

[Njall]

Rajan Sawhney, who had previously announced that she would not be contesting her seat of Calgary-North East and would leave the legislature, has instead been adopted as the UCP candidate for Calgary-North West. Unlike her current seat, this new seat isn't necessarily an assured NDP gain—in 2019 the UCP candidate, frontbencher Sonya Savage, won it by 25 points with 9% going to the Alberta Party candidate—so Sawhney could end up in a situation where she's the most prominent member of the opposition benches not aligned with the far right.

It's also worth noting that the UCP did this because Sonya Savage, who had already been renominated in the riding, made a last-minute decision to not run for re-election. Savage had been seen as a close ally of both Kenney and Toews, so make of that what you will. To your other point, if Sawhney is elected she'll have the company of Rebecca Schulz, but that's about it. Schulz represents Calgary-Shaw, which is one of the 6 seats in Calgary (along with Lougheed, Fish Creek, South East, Hays, and West) that are likely to stay UCP, and while she ran to the right of Sawhney in the leadership, she was to the left of Toews and definitely Smith.

In other news, yesterday Smith announced that reporters will no longer be allowed to ask her follow-up questions at news conferences. Her staff are really actively trying to limit the opportunities for her to go off-script and end up in another controversy.

One other thing I'm watching in the lead up to the election that hasn't been mentioned in this thread yet is the question of if Drew Barnes will run for re-election in Cypress-Medicine Hat. Barnes is the only former Wildrose MLA elected in the 2012 election to have stayed in the legislature from then through to the present day, and when he was in the UCP he was consistently one of the most outspoken and libertarian-leaning backbenchers. He'd had it out for Kenney ever since Kenney declined to name him to cabinet, and in the middle of the pandemic he was kicked out of the UCP caucus along with Todd Loewen (who is now back in caucus and cabinet) for stoking opposition to Kenney's leadership. Barnes had previously announced that he wouldn't attempt to rejoin caucus and seek the UCP nomination, but he hasn't announced whether he'll run for re-election as an independent. If he does, that could make his riding a sleeper pickup opportunity for the NDP. In the Brooks-Medicine Hat by-election that Smith won, the NDP actually narrowly won the portion of the riding in the city of Medicine Hat. Barnes' riding of Cypress-Medicine Hat, despite its geographic size, is actually much more of an urban seat, with all but 8 polling divisions in the city of Medicine Hat. In a two-way race I think the riding would still lean UCP, but if Barnes runs and splits the vote, the NDP could have a real shot at picking it up.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Rajan Sawhney, who had previously announced that she would not be contesting her seat of Calgary-North East and would leave the legislature, has instead been adopted as the UCP candidate for Calgary-North West. Unlike her current seat, this new seat isn't necessarily an assured NDP gain—in 2019 the UCP candidate, frontbencher Sonya Savage, won it by 25 points with 9% going to the Alberta Party candidate—so Sawhney could end up in a situation where she's the most prominent member of the opposition benches not aligned with the far right.

Huh.

Calgary-North West is the kind of riding the UCP needs to win in order to form a government. Smith's political career may be in the hands of her biggest critic during the leadership race.

[Benjamin Frank]

It's hard to see the NDP expanding its base federally as long as the Federal Liberals are there and are the far more enduring brand. If anything, urban NDP ridings federally tend to be trending Liberal and the Northern ridings in Manitoba and Ontaro held by the NDP at the Federal level tend to be trending Liberal or becoming three way races. The remaining NDP base in the Kootenays, in the North West and on Northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia tend to be competitive with the Conservatives.

Are a lot of these really, clearly "trending Liberal", though?  It might even be argued that past federal NDP support (esp. before the Audrey/Alexa 90s drought) was *overrated*, and Lib support *underrated*--that is, the firewall was always there, and the NDP always had that UK Liberal/Lib Dem stigma of being an awkward third leg of a party with a knack for prevailing in weird 3-way circumstances or making left-field advances in byelections.  Like in Toronto, Davenport's now the most Lib-NDP supermarginal riding in the city; but pre-Y2K, it was nuclear ethno-Liberal under Charles Caccia--and Parkdale-High Park, once more of a Lib/Tory swinger, is now likewise Lib-NDP marginal (more generically, the collapse of the PCs and the attendant "Red Tory" base has enhanced such Lib/NDP-race urban impressions).  *Montreal*, of all places, seems to be a place where the NDP's trended promisingly upward even w/o the crutch of Jack-mania--though yes, the Liberal brand in Montreal is notoriously hard to budge (one thing that helps the NDP in Montreal is that as it's chased the CAQ electorate, the Bloc's no longer the "urban left-proxy" option it once was).  And when it comes to Northern Ontario, while much of it is still *held* by the Liberals, it isn't exactly *trending* in that direction--if anything, the trends are more in the *Conservative* direction, and particularly in non-incumbent circumstances more at Liberal than NDP expense (Algoma-Manitoulin, once the political home of Mike Pearson, is now NDP w/Libs a third-party force).

"Trending" is not the same as "digging in" (i.e. "give up, NDP; you've never won, you never will").  Justin's leadership *re-validated* the Liberal option in '15 after a dark decade; but you can't say it snowballed into a trend, and most of the incremental NDP support shed post-2015 tokenly related to loss of incumbent advantage (particularly in post-Orange Crush Quebec).

Returning to the subject matter: it's not that Fort McMurray *couldn't* be NDP-viable, but any such potential in '95 was kneecapped by its being Brian Jean's hometown.  Thus the "anti-PC" impulse had a viable native-son provincial-leader alternative, and the need to swing with the Notleymania flow was deemed redundant...

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

[adma]

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

Yet to refer to any of this as "trending" glosses over how a lot of relative party support can depend upon spot circumstances of candidate or leadership.  That is, I wouldn't refer to anything here as "trending" so much as it's something that's been awakened in the Justin era, but isn't necessarily eternal--and this Greater Van vulnerability to the Liberals would have been, a generation or two ago, a vulnerability to the PC/Reform/Alliance/CPC continuum.

Neither of these seats have *ever* been, in and of themselves, precisely "safe NDP".  Tommy Douglas was once defeated in this territory.  And Svend Robinson survived the 90s because he was Svend Robinson; in his absence, his seat would likelier have flipped to Lib or Reform in '93, and stayed there through 2000.

However, *once again* trying to plug back into the discussion here...if a Notley victory isn't necessarily fatal to the federal Libs/Dippers (i.e. not necessarily a "Griesbach-killer"), it's in the same way that, in BC, John Horgan to some degree broke the curse that, in the past, has led voters to turn its back on the federal NDP once its provincial sister is in governing power.  (The '15 federal election came as Alberta voters started to have morning-after regrets about electing the Notley Dippers--but somehow, I can picture a Notley return to power being more Horgan-like than Barrett/Harcourt/Clark/Dosanjih-like.) 

Of course, Alberta's had its own kind of federal "trending" over the years--back in the 80s when Ed Broadbent was topping the polls, I suppose the federal NDP would have used a "Saskatchewan strategy" and looked to rural as well as urban seats as targetable (indeed, the NDP came within a point of winning the 1986 Pembina byelection--basically, Edmonton's N and E rural/exurban collar).  But today, any such strategy would be much more urban-focussed--and more promisingly so than in the optimistic 80s.  (Remember: the predecessor seat to Edmonton-Strathcona saw the PCs triumph over the NDP's Halyna Freeland--Chrystia's mom--by 8 points in '88.)

[Benjamin Frank]

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

Yet to refer to any of this as "trending" glosses over how a lot of relative party support can depend upon spot circumstances of candidate or leadership.  That is, I wouldn't refer to anything here as "trending" so much as it's something that's been awakened in the Justin era, but isn't necessarily eternal--and this Greater Van vulnerability to the Liberals would have been, a generation or two ago, a vulnerability to the PC/Reform/Alliance/CPC continuum.

Neither of these seats have *ever* been, in and of themselves, precisely "safe NDP".  Tommy Douglas was once defeated in this territory.  And Svend Robinson survived the 90s because he was Svend Robinson; in his absence, his seat would likelier have flipped to Lib or Reform in '93, and stayed there through 2000.

However, *once again* trying to plug back into the discussion here...if a Notley victory isn't necessarily fatal to the federal Libs/Dippers (i.e. not necessarily a "Griesbach-killer"), it's in the same way that, in BC, John Horgan to some degree broke the curse that, in the past, has led voters to turn its back on the federal NDP once its provincial sister is in governing power.  (The '15 federal election came as Alberta voters started to have morning-after regrets about electing the Notley Dippers--but somehow, I can picture a Notley return to power being more Horgan-like than Barrett/Harcourt/Clark/Dosanjih-like.) 

Of course, Alberta's had its own kind of federal "trending" over the years--back in the 80s when Ed Broadbent was topping the polls, I suppose the federal NDP would have used a "Saskatchewan strategy" and looked to rural as well as urban seats as targetable (indeed, the NDP came within a point of winning the 1986 Pembina byelection--basically, Edmonton's N and E rural/exurban collar).  But today, any such strategy would be much more urban-focussed--and more promisingly so than in the optimistic 80s.  (Remember: the predecessor seat to Edmonton-Strathcona saw the PCs triumph over the NDP's Halyna Freeland--Chrystia's mom--by 8 points in '88.)

Ross Harvey won in Edmonton East for the NDP in 1988.

[adma]

Ross Harvey won in Edmonton East for the NDP in 1988.

Which was their first-ever-federal-seat big breakthrough.  But his seat was Griesbach's forerunner, not Strathcona's.  (And Griesbach's elusiveness until '21 illuminates the dilemma--the present-day NDP appealing more to Strathcona's college/cultural/hipster class than to Griesbach's working class.)

[King of Kensington]

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

There also seems to be a GTA-ization of voting patterns in Greater Vancouver. 

[adma]

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

There also seems to be a GTA-ization of voting patterns in Greater Vancouver. 

To the limited degree that the Liberals have been "awakened".  However, short of an "Audreying", I doubt the federal NDP in Greater Vancouver will ever be reduced to single-digit/low-teens also-ran shares the way they are in most of the outer GTA.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Regarding the three Greater Vancouver ridings held by the NDP, Jagmeet Singh's riding isn't totally safe NDP. I haven't looked at the riding redistribution and New Westminster is certainly fertile ground for the NDP, union working class, but if it weren't for Peter Julian the Liberals would likely be much more competitive.  Bonita Zarrillo just won in 2021 but it was also competitive.

There also seems to be a GTA-ization of voting patterns in Greater Vancouver. 

To the limited degree that the Liberals have been "awakened".  However, short of an "Audreying", I doubt the federal NDP in Greater Vancouver will ever be reduced to single-digit/low-teens also-ran shares the way they are in most of the outer GTA.

The NDP has a legacy in the Burnaby/New West/Coquitlam area going back many decades, from times when they were the main left-wing opposition to the Bennett SoCred machine and this part of the lower mainland weren't so much Vancouver suburbs as they were working-class cities in their own right. So even with increased GTA-fication, the NDP has an infrastructure and a history there. The GTA suburban regions were much smaller and less urbanized until relatively recently, and was a Protestant Tory fortress. But it urbanized rapidly, and without much of a labour presence, the Liberals were in a much better position to become the main anti-Tory option. As a result 905ers mostly believe the NDP can't win there, so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy where many potential NDP voters park their votes with the Liberals. In Burnaby et al, the NDP clearly can win, so there's less reason to go Liberal.

Bringing the discussion back to Alberta though, it would be huge for the federal NDP if their provincial cousins can win this election for the same reason. Already we're seeing huge improvements for the federal NDP in the Edmonton area, and winning Calgary provincially would help their federal cousins there. It's a little different than Ontario, where yeah the NDP is official opposition for the second time in a row, but 1) they're still very weak in the suburbs, and 2) the Liberal brand is still very much alive. In Alberta, even if they lose this year (but especially if they win), the NDP remains the only viable anti-UCP option provincially, which can only help by growing NDP voter ID and machinery overall.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Stephen Harper endorses the UCP...kinda? He mostly just said "don't vote NDP", didn't really mention the UCP or Smith by name. Not exactly the kind of glowing praise that Smith would have wanted, but Harper's support is still more of an asset than a liability in Alberta. Particularly in Calgary where he was quite popular and Smith isn't.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Alberta 2023 vote compass is out!

My results:
UCP: 76%
WIP: 63%
NDP: 57%
LIB: 55%
AP:  47%
GRN: 32%

Of course, only UCP and NDP are relevant since the other parties are spoilers at most, and even then, not running in most ridings. I'm not sure how accurate the quiz is, but I'm not surprised by the numbers. More ideologically aligned with the UCP, but 57% is higher than I would get for any other NDP, since AB NDP is much more moderate than their other counterparts. I'd like to root for the UCP, I just wish Smith were a little less nutty.

[Continential]

Alberta Liberal Party (LIB) 62%
United Conservative Party of Alberta (UCP) 57%
Alberta Party (AP) 55%
Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) 54%
Wildrose Independence Party of Alberta (WIP) 53%
Green Party of Alberta (GRN) 47%

[Njall]

Alberta 2023 vote compass is out!

LIB: 77%
AP:  77%
GRN: 71%
NDP: 66%
UCP: 28%
WIP: 19%


Of course, in reality I'll be voting for the NDP for the first time in my life.

[Mexican Wolf]

GRN: 78%
AP: 73%
LIB: 69%
NDP: 59%
UCP: 28%
WIP: 20%

Weird, I thought the Alberta Party was the attempted catch-all "centrists dissatisfied with the UCP and NDP" party. Usually I don't score high on these with those types of parties.

Also, if I were living in Alberta, I'd definitely be voting for the NDP to get the UCP out.

[toaster]

I always thought Canada's Greens were more centrist/right learning.  sometimes referred to as Conservatives with Bikes, or Environmentalists Conservatives, but this compass has them the furthest left on social and fiscal issues?  Is that unique to Alberta's Green Party?

[Benjamin Frank]

I always thought Canada's Greens were more centrist/right learning.  sometimes referred to as Conservatives with Bikes, or Environmentalists Conservatives, but this compass has them the furthest left on social and fiscal issues?  Is that unique to Alberta's Green Party?

No. There were more Conservatives who ride bicycles in the 1990s and early 2000s, but federally especially since Elizabeth May, they don't really exist any more, and not really provincially either.

In the race to replace Elizabeth May, there was one candidate who roughly fit the description - Andrew West, who received 1.47% of the vote (352 votes.)


The leader of the Green Party prior to Elizabeth May, Jim Harris, was more of an example of a Conservative who rides a bicycle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Harris_(politician)

Andrew Weaver in British Columbia was kind of all over the map politically, and is easily the second most succesful Green Party leader in Canada but his successor Sonia Furstenau is the now dominant left wing Green.

[S019]

My results were:

LIB: 57%
AP: 53%
NDP: 51%
UCP: 48%
GRN: 47%
WIP: 42%

[adma]

I always thought Canada's Greens were more centrist/right learning.  sometimes referred to as Conservatives with Bikes, or Environmentalists Conservatives, but this compass has them the furthest left on social and fiscal issues?  Is that unique to Alberta's Green Party?

No. There were more Conservatives who ride bicycles in the 1990s and early 2000s, but federally especially since Elizabeth May, they don't really exist any more, and not really provincially either.

In the race to replace Elizabeth May, there was one candidate who roughly fit the description - Andrew West, who received 1.47% of the vote (352 votes.)


The leader of the Green Party prior to Elizabeth May, Jim Harris, was more of an example of a Conservative who rides a bicycle.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Harris_(politician)

Andrew Weaver in British Columbia was kind of all over the map politically, and is easily the second most succesful Green Party leader in Canada but his successor Sonia Furstenau is the now dominant left wing Green.

The "Tories with composters" sensibility is one that, like Red Toryism in general, tended to migrate to the Liberal-default camp this century--it's a reason why Fredericton's elected federal Green Jenica Atwin jumped to the Liberals, or why GPO leader Mike Schreiner was entertained as a new OLP leader.  And there's still a vibe of the Greens being a "respectable" left-default in places which couldn't stomach voting for the NDP, like in various provincial BC ridings focussed upon Whistler.  Sort of occupying that "radical middle" or "not-left-not-right-but-forward" wouldbe big-tent safe space.

Though when it comes to a more recent form of dancing w/the right spectrum, federal Green supporters have tended to be second to PPC supporters in the Covid/vaccine-skepticism camp.  An anchor for the "conspirituality axis", IOW.

[Upper Canada Tory]

My results for the Alberta vote compass thing:
UCP: 67%
LIB: 56%
NDP: 54%
WIP: 49%
AP:  49%
GRN: 37%

[OSR stands with Israel]